THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Friday, July 30, 2010

How much for Longoria?

Christina asks about 5 players, and really, the one player in there that is out of place is Evan Longoria.

3B Evan Longoria to the Angels for C Hank Conger, CF Peter Bourjos, 3B Brandon Wood, and RHPs Garrett Richards and Fabio Martinez.

I know we just moved Ramirez across the state of Florida; let’s just treat these in isolation. If for some reason the Rays endure calamitous payroll failure, Longoria’s contract runs through 2014 on the low end for $20 million—and through 2016 for $41.5 million. Acquiring that kind of bargain would be tough to trade, but let’s say the Angels throw absolutely everything save their one untouchable, Mike Trout, to get it done. Conger is a potential All-Star catcher, Bourjos a leadoff center field type worth employing, and perhaps Wood can recapture his flagging blue-chip status with a change of scenery. Martinez and Richards are the best two arms the Angels’ organization have, but both are very young and all the way down in Low-A.

Longoria Properties has a 150MM$ asset value (or whatever he is) that is mortgaged for under 50MM$.  That’s over 100MM$ of net asset value.  Here’s my question: how many teams will give up their entire farm system for Evan Longoria?  Half maybe?  And how many would give up their entire farm system minus one protected player?  Maybe all of them?

Longoria is one of the best players in baseball who not only signed away his pre-FA years (and a couple of his FA years), but did so at a deep discount.  The Rays fans should thank god (or Andrew Friedman) every day for their good fortune.