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Friday, March 14, 2008
How many bases can you steal, if the pitcher pitches from the windup?
This is but one game, but Geoff Young of Ducksnorts tells us that this pitcher was trying to get his mechanics back on track, so they decided to make him pitch with the windup, even with men on base. The answer is: 10 SB.
Whenever you can get your expected SB rate (based on the runner, his lead, the pitcher, what you think the pitcher will throw, and the release/arm of the catcher) above the breakeven rate, you should consider running. If your expected SB rate is way above the breakeven rate, you should consider going almost all the time (body willing). In this case, it seems that pitching from the windup turns everyone into a Tim Raines (Ichiro/Beltran for you young pups). This is the reason you don’t see pitchers pitching from the windup. The extra half second (or whatever it is) makes all the difference in the world.
This is off-topic, but I noticed that Spencer threw 129 pitches in 6 1/3 innings in that game, which seems like a bad idea for a pitcher who is trying to get his mechanics back on track. Also, despite the Marlins’ 10 steals, they scored just 2 runs and lost the game.