THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

How long? - Until print journalism (grit and whatnot) dies.

So, JonA, you’re predicting Eckstein and Kendall will be gone in a matter of weeks?

I’m confused on Kendall. He’s a 1-2 win player once you factor in his defense, I think. I thought he was generally regarded as a good defensive catcher, but with average defense he’s worth one win according to FanGraphs. That’s certainly not anything to write home about, but I don’t see it as a travesty. Feel free to convince me otherwise.

No, I don’t know anything else about Kendall that you don’t know.  I don’t know much about his defense, but sure he has been a 1 win player for the last 3 years.  Just not my kind of player I guess and I suspect that he was a PED user.  Not that I really care if someone used PED’s, but if a player sucks without PED’s that is all the more reason not to like him, in my mind at least.

I realize that the replacement offensive level for a catcher is really low, but a player who is -26, -17, -17 in batting runs for the last 3 years, well, you just can’t help but dislike him.  That is basically what I consider to be an “automatic out” at the plate…

Dayton Moore just read MGL’s #4 and decided to sign Kendall to hit cleanup for the Royals.

According to Rally’s WAR, Kendall’s only been above average in catcher defense twice.  He rarely has an above average CS%, and it’s back down from the ridiculous 40% he put up last year.  A lot of his value behind the plate has evaporated already, and to top it all off he’s getting paid 5 million dollars.  He’s never been a great defensive catcher, and he isn’t now just because he can’t hit any more.

Perhaps we’re undervaluing their immeasurable gritty grittiness....

Funny after Tango’s post about the Royals’ cleanup batters, today it was the hacktastic Miguel Olivo and he was the DH!

Olivo’s actually been solid this year; last time I checked his wOBA was pushing league average, which is impressive for a catcher, especially one who swings at pitches like this:

http://www.drivelinemechanics.com/2009/9/13/1028086/fun-fact-s-miguel-olivo-addition#21157980

Of course, he still kinda sucks and shouldn’t even sniff the heart of the order on most teams, but given the state of the Royals cleanup hitters this year, he is a huge improvement!

I have a hard time saying a catcher who has a good reputation for handling a pitching staff should be out of the game. I don’t know if it’s a myth. I don’t know how valuable a good game caller really is. But catching defense, as we all know, is a lot more than just throwing out baserunners. I’m not sure calling Kendall a 1 WAR player is accurate, because there’s so much about the mental aspect of catching that I don’t think we can quantify yet.

I’d have to think that if pitchers really, truly believe that certain catchers are better for them there is at least some kind of placebo effect even if there is little game-calling difference between most Major League catchers.

Eckstein, well, I did see him foul a ball off his own face once. That was kinda cool.

I think the question you should have asked is, “How long should Eckstein and Kendall be allowed to play at their expected salaries?”

I have little problem with them at the major league minimum.

Coming into 2009, I had them both as 0.5 WAR players.  I agree, they should not get regular playing time.  But I don’t think these are the two best examples for what MGL is talking about.  There’s a decent picking of below 0 WAR players to choose from.

Rich Aurilia is probably this year’s Jose Vidro.  There seems to be a fascination in putting once-good hitters, who have lost their fielding legs to try them out at 1B/DH.

Kendall’s no worse than Jeff Mathis or a bunch of other backup catchers.  Eckstein would be a nice guy to have as a utility infielder getting 150-250 PA.  I agree they don’t have value as starters if you are actually trying to win.

Didn’t Kendall also show up at the bottom of Tango’s recent WOWY list for catchers on BIP?  His offense is obviously terrible.  And I haven’t heard any Brewer pitcher this year talk about how great of a game Kendall calls.  I guess they are too busy getting lit up.

Kendall may have more starts than any other catcher in the league over the last two years.  He’s also gotten several starts at lead off this year.

I was just being a little hyperbolic about these guys.  Obviously anyone with above replacement level value can have a job in MLB, although neither of these players has much time left, I don’t think, especially Eckstein.

As I said, they just aren’t my kind of players. Mainly, as a Padres fan, it pisses me off to no end seeing Eckstein batting 2nd.

And I don’t see Eckstein as a utility infielder.  He can’t really play anywhere else but 2B.

Is there a rule of thumb cutoff point whereby a player goes from starter to backup (obviously it depends on the team)?

Well Eckstein just signed a 1M extension for 2010 less than a month ago.

Eckstein was a pretty good defensive shortstop for a while.  I don’t see why he can’t fill in there on occasion.  I mean, his arm cannot possibly have gotten any worse.

Signing him for a million though, and probably another starting job, is bad news.  I’d rather get a guy for the league minimum.

Looking at the Padres roster, I wonder who should bat second. They don’t seem to have many good hitters. Maybe the question is what is their optimal lineup and how many runs has it cost them by using an inferior lineup? Eckstein actually has a .347 OBP in road games. Of course, he lacks power and it might be that you need power at #2.

Jason Kendall sucks because he can’t hit and he can’t defend anymore either.  Im sick of seeing him in the game.  He needs to retire.

See, even Craig Counsell is tired of him.

Eckstein COULD play SS just like any player CAN play any position.  I think he would be a -10 to -15 SS and he might not have the arm anymore to play there at all.  I don’t think he could ever play 3B even though 2B and 3B are roughly equivalent. And he can’t play the OF because of his arm.  He is definitely NOT your typical utility infielder.  He was never much of a hitter and his defense appears to have taken fa nosedive.  When a player is in baseball mostly for his defense (only 4 or 5 years ago, he was an above average SS, defense-wise), if they tank on defense for whatever reason, it is time to retire.  You have no role left to play. You can’t pinch hit, you can’t DH, and you can’t come in as a replacement defender in the late innings.