THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Tried clicking on that, and never could even get the whole page to load.  Nothing wrong with the link, just the limitations of the computer I’m using.  The only way I can still read any of the SBN sites is with the mobile version.

I hate to say it, as a sometimes contributor to Halos Heaven, but SBN is as bad as ESPN now when it comes to multimedia overload.

Make me appreciate this blog and it’s simple design all the more.

Some pitchers with between 3500-4100 innings and ERA+ 103-107:

Mickey Lolich, 3638, 105 217-191
Jamie Moyer, 4020, 104, 267-204
Jack, of course
Dennis Martinez, 3897, 106, 245-193
Herb Pennock, 3571, 106, 241-162

Lolich was a Tiger, and can match with his own WS heroics.  In 1968 he pitched 3 complete game victories, including a game 7 where he beat Bob Gibson.

Jack Morris had a great career.  But you could fill a book listing all the pitchers who fell short of Cooperstown yet were just as deserving.

Dennis Martinez is really the one there.  Equivalent, or better, career.  Better peak.  More talent to begin with.  And that includes his three drunk years.

It’s interesting (to me) why the perception differs from the reality.  i.e. where the voters go wrong when they rely on their “gut”.  In Morris’ case, the logic is “clear #1 on a terrific team = must have been great”.  What’s happening is that he’s getting credit that should be going to a number of under-rated players like Trammell, Whitaker, Darrell Evans, Chet Lemon.

Early/late bloomer is another one.  People have a hard time changing their opinion about a player.  So we get Jim Rice, who, as a young player, put up triple crown numbers that hadn’t been seen in the AL in a couple of decades.  Or Dawson, who, pre- knee injuries was pretty mind-blowing.  Versus Whitaker, Dwight Evans, Edgar Martinez.

And Lance Parrish.  Kirk Gibson.  Lots of really good, not great, players on the Morris teams.

And yes, excellent point that their underrated wins are “flowing” to someone… Jack Morris.

1984 is a perfect example.

Jack Morris (or rather, the Tigers with Morris getting the credit) was 19-11, 3.60.  I mean, just about a typical Jack Morris year.

Now, rWAR says Morris had 2.3 WAR, which, again, is a typical Jack Morris year.

The Tigers were 104-58.  You have to figure alot of that 19-11 he’s credited is “fake”.  It’s more Tigers, than Morris.

This is why this is so powerful:

http:///index3.php?teamid=DET&yearid=1984

The Indis are saying that Trammell was 10-0, Chet Lemon was 9-0, Gibson 8-1, Willie Hernandez (one of the finest relief seasons ever… check out his IP total!) was 8-0, Sweet Lou at 7-2, Lance Parrish at 6-4.

Even Dan Petry, at 7-4, was higher than Jack Morris’ 6-5.

But, Morris is the one that ends up looking really good.

When Milt Wilcox is credited with the traditional W/L of 17-8 (on a 4.00 ERA), is it that big a deal for Morris to go 19-11?

Funny thing is I remember thinking at the time that the BBWAA had thrown up its hands and given the MVP to the reliever (Hernandez) when it should have gone to the big, fat #1 starter (Morris).

Pierre: you must have been a silly kid back then in that case.  Morris’ win% was the same as the team win%.  He was an average Tigers player.

I remember thinking, “what’s the big deal about Hernandez? 32 saves?” Quiz had 44, and Sutter 45.

They all had great years though:

Willie, 140 IP, 1.92 ERA
Quiz, 129, 2.64
Sutter, 122, 1.54

All 3 were more valuable than any relief pitcher will be in 2012. Even though a few are bound to beat their rates, nobody will come within a mile of their workload.  Hernandez had a +8.7 WPA.  If not the best ever for a reliever, it has to be up there.

Play index confirms Hernandez 1984 is the best WPA season ever for a reliever.  Second place is John Hiller’s 1973 (another Tiger, held single season save record for a while).

The top 6 spots belong to the workhorses from the 1965-1984 period, with 120+ innings each.

Troy Percival (1996) and Eric Gagne (2003) have the best WPAs for closers with the modern 70-80 IP workload.

Mike Marshall.  Bill Campbell?

Can’t you make a case for a reliever as an MVP if he is putting up +8.7 WPA? That is better than the best position player this season (Bautista) by about 1 win. He won them probably 10 more games than the replacement level player would have won in that position.

pm:  Couple of problems with that analysis.  One is that WPA gives all defensive credit to the pitcher, while in fact the fielders may deserve some of it.  Second, WPA uses a benchmark of league average pitching, which ignores the advantage a late-inning reliever has.  So WPA will tend to overstate the real value of relievers’ performance.  (Which isn’t to say Willie wasn’t valuable—obviously, he was.)

How is David Wells any different than Jack Morris?

David Wells doesn’t look like Dale Earnhardt.

You asked. I answered.

Dave Stieb is more deserving than Morris. 

Jack Morris:  WAR:  39.3 WAAS:  13.7
Dave Stieb:  WAR:  53 WAAS:  26.4

[WAAS=Wins Above All Star or Max(WAR-2.5,0)]

Morris was a good pitcher, but he’s quite marginal by HOF standards.

@6 And 1984 gives an issue for the Hall: who is the Hall of Famer?

Gibson, Lemon, Petry, Parrish, Hernandez and HoJo all fall into the “good but nowhere near enough time” bucket. The Hall would never pick Darrell Evans. Whitaker and Trammell would be good picks, but, like Evans, they have the issue of being too well-rounded as players with few weaknesses: Evans hitting for average, Whitaker hitting lefties, Trammell throwing. The voters hate that; they like specialists. So who is left? The guy who won 240 games.

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On-topic post - interesting that the 1984 Tigers were one among the best single-season teams ever, yet no player on that team is in the Hall of Fame, and none, aside from Morris, seem likely to get there.

One other difference between Morris and Wells: Morris is clearly identified with a single team, the Tigers, while Wells bounced around with several throughout his career. Morris has an easy “cap call”. That may impact somewhat how some voters perceive them…