THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Wednesday, January 02, 2008

How bad a hitter can you be to justify a great glove?

Here’s the answer:
Pos OPS+
2 62
3 89
4 68
5 68
6 62
7 79
8 62
9 79

Here’s how to figure it out:

1. Figure out the overall win value relative to average you can stomach out of your regulars.  I presumed -0.5 wins per 162 G, relative to average.  Maybe it should be -1, maybe it should be 0 (average).  You tell me.

2. Figure how much a Gold Glove is worth at each position, relative to the average at that position.  I presumed +2.5 wins for 2B,SS,3B,CF, +2.0 for C,LF,RF and +1.5 for 1B.  Again, you tell me.

3. Figure how much each position is worth relative to each other.  I use my standards: +1 C, +0.5 SS/CF, 0 2B/3B, -0.5 LF/RF, -1 1B.

4. Figure the league average OBP, SLG.  I used .340, .410.

Simply solve for an OBP and SLG that’ll give you an overall offense, such that the off+fielding+pos = -0.5 wins.

For SS/CF, that’s an OBP of .277 and SLG of .332.  Relative to the league average, that’s -3.5 hitting wins.  Add in the great glove of +2.5, and the position adjustment of +0.5, and that gives you an overall -0.5 wins.

You don’t like my various assumptions?  No problem.  Change ‘em.  The framework is there to put your own implementation.

And remember, I’m talking about the best fielders at each position.  The absolute best.  If you have a “pretty good” glove, this doesn’t work for you.  You’ve got to be a better hitter than this.  This works for your Adam Everetts and his buddies.