THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

That throw was ridiculous, though.  McLouth threw an absolute laser to the plate, and Martin didn’t even have to move his glove.  Just a perfect strike.  Martin’s tag was awful, and if he would have tagged the foot instead of the thigh, Cousins would have been right.

Meanwhile, Corey Hart throws like a nine-year-old.  Randy Winn wasn’t even impressed.

Heck, that last play at the plate was a lot closer than the Navarro one.  I think Cousins was calling this one safe unless Morneau was tagged 20 feet from the plate.  It was a weak throw by Hart who kind of overran the ball and consequently had nothing on the throw.

Uggla vs. the Umps

Here’s my count (WPA stats from The Book)

Umpires
Guillen out at home/foul ball: .539-.835 = Correct Call -.296 WPA to AL
Ian Kinsler SB/CS: .817-.588 = Correct Call +.229 WPA to AL
Navarro safe at home/out: 1-.645 = Correct Call +.355 WPA to AL
Pujols 1B/2B: .480-.549 = Correct Call -.069 WPA to AL

Umps: -.219 to AL

Uggla
-.634 Batting
1st Error (Young): .588-.722= -.134 WPA
2nd Error (Quentin): .938-(.539 if DP, .644 if not) = Uggla -.399 / -.294
3rd ~Error (Drew): .644-.539 = Uggla -.105 WPA

-.634 Batting
-.638 Fielding (if 2nd error in 10th would’ve been a DP)
-.533 Fielding (if it’s not)

Total: -1.272 / -1.167

Navarro looked out to me, even with the instant replay.  McLouth’s throw was not a strike.  It was a good throw, but Martin had to backhand it on a short hop and quickly apply the tag.  Great play by Martin.
vr, Xeifrank

You might want to watch the replay again.  He did not backhand the ball - he scooped it like a first baseman would, glove open, and the bat hit the glove in the absolutely perfect position to apply the tag.  All Martin had to do was tag the foot, but he allowed Navarro to go under the glove and ended up tagging the upper thigh. 

Navarro was clearly safe, and Martin’s bad tag was why, because the throw was perfect.

somewhat unrelated (but somewhat related still!)
This is probably the best article on the All-Star game I’ve ever read.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=jp-ichirospeech071508&prov=yhoo&type=lgns

Enjoy

Yes, Navarro was clearly safe.  Was not even close (the timing that is).

However, I would not necessarily call it a bad tag.  Players like to make sweep tags as much as possible since it avoids a possible injury to the hand/arm.  And they know that if the ball beats the runner, the ump is usually going to call the runner out even if the fielder does not apply the tag before the runner touches the base/plate.  Same thing with the stolen base st second (was it Kinsler?) early in the game.  The throw beat the runner, the fielder missed the tag, but the runner was called out.

I also would not call it a “prefect” throw, although I suppose after the fact you can.  That was a very difficult catch by Martin (with a catcher’s glove).  If Martin does not catch that throw, which I think will happen a substantial portion of the time if it were repeated, we would be saying that it was not a very good throw.  A throw from the outfield should ideally be an easy one hopper or reach on a fly with no hop, whichever gets there faster (and also whichever allows the cutoff man to cut it off if necessary).  A short hop is not a throw you want to make, although if it is on line, it is not terrible.  But perfect? No. 

Two of the errors on Uggla were examples of why fielding percentage is such a bad stat even for evaluating fielders’ skills at making “errors.” The second one, that went between his legs, was a rocket that probably would be fielded 50% of the time (and yes, it fielded, it was an easy DP). The last one was a bad hop which also gets fielded maybe 50% of the time, maybe less.  If you are going to give someone an error, I think it should be on a ball that gets fielded by an average fielder at least 90% of the time.  Isn’t that supposed to be the point of an error - that it almost always gets fielded by an average player?

An example of how/why “eyewitnesses” are notoriously unreliable:

Navarro looked out to me, even with the instant replay. Martin had to backhand it on a short hop…

You might want to watch the replay again.  He did not backhand the ball...Navarro was clearly safe...

The replay was very clear about whether the runner was safe or out and whether Martin “backhanded” the ball or not, although I think that Xeifrank did not mean that literally (the “backhand” comment).

I spent most of my playing career as a catcher, and I loved it when the outfielders would throw a short hop on a play at the plate.  With the big glove, it’s not that tough to catch (assuming you get a true hop, which you almost always do), and because the ball is just coming off the bounce, it’s still low to the ground by the time it gets to the glove. 

The on-the-fly throw almost always required me to catch the ball in some sort of standing position, then try to get the glove down with a sweep tag.  Unless the runner was coming on a play where he just didn’t have a chance, it was pretty rate that I had enough time to make the catch and the sweep tag before he got to the plate. 

However, when I was able to take the ball off the bounce, I could position myself in a way that the runner essentially had to slide right into the tag, making it an easy out call for the ump. 

That’s why I loved McLouth’s throw - all Martin had to do was catch the ball off the bounce and let Navarro slide right into the tag.  The short hop play there isn’t as hard as it looks, and the odds of nailing a guy at the plate are a lot higher than with an on-the-fly throw.

Post 7 was marked for moderation and is now open.

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http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/allstar08/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&id=3491429

...and then the commissioner’s people send word to your people that this game must be decided somehow…

Or would it be time to turn this crown jewel of baseball into a total farce, by handing the baseball to somebody who hadn’t thrown a pitch since, oh, middle school.

“I spoke to David Wright,” said Hurdle. “I told David, `You were the last pick [on the roster]. I went and got you. Have you ever pitched in an All-Star Game?’

“I said, `You wanted to be in this thing. That’s all I’ve read, all I’ve heard, for the last three days. Well, you won’t believe how much you might be in it here real quick.’”

“I told him I was ready,” Wright reported. “I was just hoping to get one out, so I’d have an ERA in the All-Star Game.”

Thinking back on his pitching career, Wright concluded that the last time he’d pitched was “probably Little League.” And was he any good? “Well,” he replied, “I’m not a pitcher now. Am I?”

...

Lidge came marching into this game in the bottom of the 15th because, basically, somebody had to do it. It wasn’t quite the script he and Hurdle had drawn up for his grand entrance.

He’d warmed up six different times already, over a period of two hours, because that’s how many times the National League had seemed to be on the verge of needing a closer

Good article by Stark.

Now, isn’t that insane?  To ask Brad Lidge to warm up SIX times in an exhibition game?  In a real game, you won’t see a reliever warm up more than twice. 

Isn’t it also insane to ask a position player to throw, just to get the game over with?  I’ve talked about this already for a regular season game… for an exhibition game?  Just so that the marketing department can continue to use the “it counts” line?

Let’s go to our old friend on stand by, the NHL, to see how they handle situations like this in a sane manner.

First of all, for the longest time, the NHL has had regular season ties.  They then added 5-minute OT, but if it ended in a tie, it ended in a tie.  Just recently they went the World Cup route (for regular season games).

So, my first suggestion: after 12 innings, call it a draw.

Back in the old days, NHL teams would sometimes have an emergency goalie in the stands, some amateur player ready to step in, just in case.  Now, here’s a not crazy suggestion: can’t you have David Price, and 5 other pitching prospects just sit around with the All-Stars?  You know, emergency pitchers, who are actually real pitchers on the cusp of being MLB-ready.  Wouldn’t that be better than having David Wright pitch?  99% of the time, they won’t pitch… so, you’ve got them hobknobbing with MLB players, sitting in the bullpen… you get to expose them to the media.  David Wright pitching is tantamount to admitting that the game is now a farce, but you have some inexplicable reason to finish the game, just because you want to finish the game.  Would you ask Wayne Gretzky to dress up as a goalie?

Tango, I don’t get it.  You seem like you’re against the seriousness of “this time it counts” and all that.  And yet, when the fun could reach a whole new level, like with JD Drew and David Wright pitching the 16th, you’re against that too.

I think it would be amazing to see position players pitch.  It’s not to get the game over with, it’s because that’s the best remaining option, right?  Cause it’s either Kazmir’s arm falling off, or Drew giving it a shot.

This isn’t asking Gretzky to play goal, it’s asking 5th liners to take the majority of the minutes because after 3 overtimes, they’re better than the starters.

You’re not reading my perspective as I’m intending.  I’m against treating the ASG as anything other than an exhibition game.  I don’t want to treat it as a farce.  It should be like spring training.

You would never ask David Wright to pitch in a spring training game would you?  Doing so would be a farce.

Making the 20th player on an NHL roster play 30 minutes a game is less farcical than having a pitcher come up to bat.  Putting David Wright or JD Drew on the mound is equivalent of Gretkzy, Pronger or Iginla lacing up goalie pads.  Just because you are a pro at the highest level doesn’t mean you are anywhere close to being qualified to doing something you are not.  Putting Pronger on the wing, or Iginla on defense is like putting Jeter in RF, or Ichiro at SS.  Not a great idea to do right away, but not farcical.

You can’t ask a fan to spend 100$, be there at 2AM, and then decide to turn the game into a farce for the ridiculous reason to make the game “count”, because ties are so un-American.

I don’t think there is any problem as long as you set the rules before the game starts.  How tough would it be for MLB to state that after 12 or 14 or 15 innings, the game stands as a tie, or that in extra innings, each team gets a runner on second, or whatever? As long as it is stated in advance and we don’t have to watch Selig frantically talking to someone on his cell phone in the 14th inning.

Right. 

Given the choice between starting the 13th or 14th inning with a runner on 2B, or having David Wright and JD Drew possibly pitch in the 16th inning, are fans seriously suggesting that the latter choice is the one they’d prefer? 

I am quite positive that every single manager and GM would highly prefer that their position players not pitch on the mound.  And position players would love to have the game over by then (wasn’t ARod already gone by then?). 

Bud Selig must have an over-extended influence on the Rules Committee.  Yet another instance that MLBPA refuses to protect the health of their players.  Position players should never pitch in an exhibition game.

In any case, having David Price and some other minor league as an emergency fill-in, especially if they hadn’t pitched since say Wed or Thu and would be prime for a 100 pitch outing is foolproof… just not Seligproof.

I thought it was pretty funny that after McLouth’s throw, McCarver immediately started to laud Martin on his “plate blocking,” when, in fact, Martin didn’t really block the plate at all.  Then the replay shows the runner to get in under the tag and B&M don’t even acknowledge it…

Notice how the game didn’t start to get entertaining until they started playing it like a real game?

Just change the substitution rules and let players back into the game. Or mandate that pitcher have to go a full inning, or two full innings. Its not that hard.

I’d be favor of changing the sub rules for pitchers, except that pitchers like their routines, which includes icing and “shutting it down”.  Forcing someone to pitch say at least 20 pitches and no more than 40 pitches seems soooo… I dunno.  It’s an ok rule.  I just think the emergency guy in the back pocket (one that would likely never ever be used) would let the game progress the way the manager would like it, without having to count pitches for a dozen pitchers.  The emergency pitcher rule is basically very invisible in that no one would ever notice what is going on.

The annoucers were going on and on about how good the defense was in the extra innings. I only watched starting in the 10th, but in addition to Uggla’s misadventures, both Young and Kinsler missed balls I thought were immenently fieldable by an infielder with even average range. The double play they turned was also painfully slow.

And Martin was blocking the plate until he caught the ball and Navarro slid right through it. Speaking of which, is Navarro the slowest runner in all of baseball? (Molina-like speed) 90% of all baseball players would have scored easily on that play in my estimation.

I think ending the game after 12 innings is the most sensible thing to do. In fact, the AL should just forfeit after 12 innings. Let the NL win a couple here and there.

I don’t figure it matters much what they do with the all-star game until they get rid of this garbage about the winning league having home field advantage in the World Series.  You’ve made a joke of an exhibition game simply by doing that.  Nothing else could be done to make it more of a joke.  David Wright and JD Drew pitching or not, it’s still an awful event.  May as well select 2 random fans to come down and pitch.  That wouldn’t even make the game worse.

The endless extra innings thing is a concept of 100 years ago. It simply doesn’t apply to the realities on modern baseball, IMO. I advocate the 12 inning, tie game rule, even for the regular season. So, obviously, I think it’s silly to do otherwise for the AS Game.

I think that’s much better than having position players pitch (ugh), or starting an inning with a runner on second or whatever (ugh), or having minor lg pitchers in the stands for an emergency (ugh).

Obviously, the tie rule would mean that the AS Game couldn’t determine HFA for the WS. And indeed it shouldn’t, even if extra innings were not a consideration.

Simple problem:  even though “the game counts” now, managers are so obsessed with making all their players happy by getting them in the game that they simply don’t budget for extra innings.

Simple solution:  the emergency pitcher (or two) who cannot be used until extra innings.  He gets to be a real All Star, but because he knows damn well he was the 10th or 11th guy chosen and the manager isn’t allowed to use him unless we go OT, he can’t really complain.

Second problem (the one that bothers me more):  All Star Games feature horrible, anti-climactic endings, such as the infamous “called tie” game in which we were treated to the epic Vicente Padilla vs. Benito Santiago matchup in what turned out to the the last PA.  Remember Pete Rose barrelling into Ray Fosse?  That happened in the bottom of the 12th.  Pete Rose was playing in the bottom of the 12th.  28 years later and we’re watching Corey Hart, not Pete Rose.

Second simple solution:  at least give us a chance to see marquee matchups late in the game.  Require each manager to play 2 or 3 position players for the entire game barring injury.  Again, this takes the pressure off the managers.  As long as you leave substitution in the managers’ sole discretion, you’ll never see a true star play the entire game again, not even in a 9-inning game. 

These are not major game-altering changes, just minor tweaks ... we already have a rule that the elected players must go 3 innings, so why not require at least a few players to go the entire game?

Personally, I’d love to see Wright vs Drew in the 16th.  But us expressing our opinions is pointless.  Go down to your local middle school and take a poll of what they want.  There’s your answer.  This is one of those times where the opinions of adults just shouldn’t matter at all.

Either it’s an exhibition or it’s not.

If it is, then we have to get rid of the silly notion that it decides home field advantage, and just call a draw at some point.

If it counts, then it should be played as a real baseball game. That means sending Drew out to pitch if needed.

It shouldn’t count though, that’s just silly.

I’d prefer if the league of the winner of the HR Derby got home field advantage over the current system.

That’s interesting, Sal.  I vaguely recall reading about that idea before, but I like it.  A lot better than what they’re doing now.  I’d prefer they just go back to alternating years.

The HFA (as if that matters anyway) should go to the team whose league won the most interleague games.

After 12 innings go back to homerun derby.  Every player still in the lineup gets one pitch (not one swing) to try and hit it out.

Team with the most homers after 9 batters wins.  Repeat in case of tie.

I don’t mind the home field being decided by the AS game at all.  But I will say, Tango’s 26 idea is the best I’ve heard yet.  Rewards the better league, and still allows for some fun at the AS game like batting with your helmet backwards.  I like it.

The thing is, the “HFA Goes to Best Interleague League” idea is very unlikely to correct itself in the short-term. If one league is dominating the other in Interleague (as is currently happening, and has happened for ~4 years now), you’re unlikely to see the other league suddenly catch back up. It’s going to take a while for the balance of power to swing back.

Rather than having a relatively equal chance to have HFA in the World Series, teams in one league (for long stretches of time) will be likely to have HFA, and then teams in the other league will have the same situations. I realize that the current string of 876 (or whatever the number is) AL ASG victories isn’t working any better, but ideally you’d like something that would correct itself in the short-term and keep relative balance between the leagues in terms of HFA.

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Anyway, was Dan Uggla’s performance the top worst performance in an All-Star game ever? That was brutal.

I don’t see why you’d want relative balance in HFA.  The AL is the superior league, just like the NBA West is superior to the NBA East (or at least was for the longest time).  Why shouldn’t they get the extra game?

If a Division 2 team played a Division 1 team, where do you think they should play?  It doesn’t matter how much better that D2 team is relative to its conference… the D1 league is better.

I have to disagree with some of the responses - I’d love it if position players came in to pitch in the ASG, and I think most of my friends (casual fans) would, too.  That’s admittedly poor anecdotal evidence, but I think position players potentially having to pitch adds to the sense of excitement and novelty around the game, which I’d view as a positive thing.  Why do we have to admit that the game is irrelevant when it’s relatively easy to make it a pretty meaningful, fun game?

The HFA in the WS is just not worth much, so who cares whether and how you award it.  Figuring a 54% win rate for the home team, the team with the HFA wins 51% of the time if both teams are even.  With the home team winning 55% of the games, it is 51.5% for the team with the HFA in the series.  And I don’t think it much matters what order the games are played in.  Even if one team plays the first 4 games at home, I think that the overall wp is around the same.

The Olympics adopted something like we are discussing:
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5hXZ-jlMIHww4PHHsPdcC44qGKYVwD92535IO1

Extra innings will have a new look in what could be baseball’s last Olympic appearance.

Each team’s at-bat in the 11th inning and beyond will begin with runners on first and second bases. Teams may start the 11th at any point in their batting order under format changes announced Friday by the International Baseball Federation and adopted in time for next month’s Beijing Games.

For example, a team that opts to lead off with its No. 3 hitter would begin with its No. 1 batter on second base and its No. 2 hitter on first with no outs.

I don’t understand the need to have the ability to reset the batting order for each inning, if desired.  That’s unnecessary.

The other rule, putting runners on 1b and 2b is fine with me.  Second only would be preferred.

Starting in the 11th is a little early.  I’d have preferred starting in the 12th.

IIRC, in Olympic hockey, they go a full OT period first, and then go to shootout.  Since 3 innings = 1 period, I would think they’d let them play real baseball for 12 innings, and then starting in the 13th, they can go with this speedup rule.  I’d be ok starting in the 12th.  Starting in the 11th is a bit too early.

But, I don’t get the need to be able to set your lineup for each inning.

As long as it’s not for playoff games, and it’s limited to regular season and exhibition games, I’m all for these kinds of rules.