THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Monday, January 09, 2012

Hall of Fame results 2012

By Tangotiger, 04:21 PM

There’s three numbers here: the 1st (to left of name) is how much they actually got, the 2nd one is how much was predicted by ~~Jay~~ Chris Jaffe, and the third is how many they got last year.

Players with ! jumped over 10 points from last year.

Actual Name Predicted 2011
86 Barry Larkin    82    62 !
67 Jack Morris    65    54 !
56 Jeff Bagwell    54    42 !
51 Lee Smith    52    45
49 Tim Raines    52    38 !
37 Edgar Martinez    39    33
37 Alan Trammell    32    24 !
23 Larry Walker    27    20
20 Mark McGwire    24    20
24 Fred McGriff    24    18
15 Dale Murphy    19    13
18 Don Mattingly    18    14
13 Rafael Palmeiro    15    11
10 Bernie Williams    12    XX

The BBWAA also provided links to their members’ articles.

• Sabermetrics • Awards

#1 (see all posts) 2012/01/09 (Mon) @ 17:43

Just eyeballing the numbers, Jay’s predictions look really good.

#2 (see all posts) 2012/01/09 (Mon) @ 17:51

I believe it was Chris Jaffe, not Jay

#3 (see all posts) 2012/01/09 (Mon) @ 17:54

In case Tango corrects the post, I hasten to add that I said “Jay” only because Tango originally did.

Sorry, Chris.

#4 (see all posts) 2012/01/09 (Mon) @ 17:55

Tango, you’ve named the wrong Jaffe.

#5 Tangotiger (see all posts) 2012/01/09 (Mon) @ 18:11

Jay was on MLB Network, so, I guess I got his name stuck in my head.

#6 Ryan JL (see all posts) 2012/01/09 (Mon) @ 21:23

I still am in disbelief that 2 out of every 3 voters think that Jamie Moyer, uh Jack Morris was a hall of famer. Craziness.

#7 Tom N. (see all posts) 2012/01/10 (Tue) @ 17:44

I didn’t think Bernie Williams would get 10%, just because I always thought he was overshadowed by his teammates.

I don’t think he’s a HOFer, but he had a pretty great 9-year stretch (’94-’02) where he basically posted a 5 WAR (fangraphs version) every year.

94: 3.5 (strike-shortened season. Extrapolates to 5.0 if 150 games played)
95: 6.7
96: 4.2
97: 5.3
98: 5.2
99: 5.0
00: 5.0
01: 4.9
02: 5.1

He batted a combined .319/.404/.525 during that stretch. Pretty nice career, and surprisingly overlooked for a Yankee

#8 (see all posts) 2012/01/11 (Wed) @ 00:31

@6 Why does this amaze you? Morris’s W-L record is Hall-worthy, and for so many voters, that is enough. His other stuff, of course, is not, but almost no voter will throw out the W-L record entirely. Give it enough weight, and you’d be compelled to vote for him, and most voters will.

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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Monday, January 09, 2012

Hall of Fame results 2012

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