THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

First, thanks for the link.

Second, I think your “ask me next year” idea is friggin’ brilliant.  They should do that right now.

Studes - regarding being surprised that more names weren’t found… I think this is sort of like the sampling bias the folks on this site always talk about.  Boston sports talk radio hosts were acting surprised that all the ballplayers were so dumb as to write checks to these guys, get stuff shipped to their home address, etc.  But it’s quite reasonable to believe that it’s just a minority of players who were “dumb enough” to write checks, and the majority were “smart enough” to have paid in cash in some dark alley somewhere, to someone who is not one of the three main sources of name-naming in the report.  If Manny’s extra days off in the DR during the all-star break were spent handing cash to some folks for some steroids (not accusing here, just an example) - would we have any way in the world of knowing he did that?

It wouldn’t surprise me at all if there were a bunch of other Radomski/Anderson types out there who each have their own webs of steroid or HGH distribution.  We just haven’t found those spiders yet.

It wouldn’t surprise me at all if there were a bunch of other Radomski/Anderson types out there who each have their own webs of steroid or HGH distribution.  We just haven’t found those spiders yet.

Of course, but Radomski worked with major leaguers for over 10 years.  How many Mets played in New York during that time, let alone attended training camp, etc.  Maybe 250?  300?  And how many did Radomski finger?  Four?  Five?  That was surprising to me.

Of course, other Mets players may have had their own sources—who knows?  But Radomski was there and available, and he didn’t get a lot of traffic from Mets’ players.

I like the idea of an active Hall of Famer.  A great player who can play past age 45 deserves that unique honor.

Gordie Howe retired in his early 40s, granted a waiver and elected to the Hall right away. His joined the WHA a couple of years later (to play with his two sons and was fantastically successful), and re-joined the NHL at age 51, and was moderately successful.

Guy Lafleur retired somewhat young from the NHL, waited the mandatory 3 years, was elected to the Hall, and made a somewhat successful comeback.

Mario Lemieux retired young from the NHL, was granted a waiver and elected to the Hall right away.  He came back to a fantastically successful comeback.

(After Gretzky retired and was granted the Hall waiver, they decided to abolish the Hall waiver for legendary players.)

What Chris Chelios or Nolan Ryan does from the age of 46 onwards will not diminish their accomplishments and chances to make the Hall of Fame.

I never understood why the Hall decided to forego the five year wait period for Clemente (I remember gettting into a debate with a guy at high school about it).  I mean, why bother?  He had already passed away.  If the point was to give perspective on a player’s career, wouldn’t the five year wait still be relevant.  Wouldn’t it have been good to celebrate his life later, too?

I think the point is that it’s irrelevant.  I like the idea of an active Hall of Famer, too.

I agree, it doesn’t make sense.  They use the “perspective” line, but then they have the waiver for the deceased.