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Friday, March 23, 2007

Gretzky, Orr… Tavares?

By Tangotiger, 01:32 PM

In hockey, like basketball I suppose, there are sure-fire players that you can find at an early age (I’m talking about 15 and younger).  Gretzky is the most prominent, as he was a 6-yr old playing against 10-yr olds.  And, when he was 11, he met the greatest player ever until that point, Gordie Howe.  His destiny was written for him.  He just had to execute.  Even though he says he loves playing baseball more. 

Since Gretzky—The Great One—every few years we get to hear about The Next One.  Mario Lemieux was the first to be put on that pedestal (famously refusing to come to the podium when he was drafted, because of stalled negotiations), and he earned it, with his coming-out-ceremony happening with The Great One in one of the most remarkable series and pairing of talent anywhere, the 1987 Canada Cup.  The next one to get the label was Eric Lindros (refusing to sign with the Nordiques, who eventually traded him for someone, as it turned out, better in Peter Forsberg, a few other players, and millions of dollars).  Until derailed by multiple concussions, Lindros was also on his way.  Then, Sidney Crosby was the guy, and he’s in the running for MVP this year, and he’ll still be a teenager when the award will be handed out.

And now, it’ll be John Tavares:

With 72 goals this season, Tavares broke a 29-year-old Ontario Hockey League record for most goals by a 16-year-old player. The old mark was 70 goals, set in 1977-78 by some kid named Gretzky. Last season, Tavares had more points than Bobby Orr had as a 15-year-old for Oshawa. The OHL had to alter its rules to allow Tavares to be drafted as a 14-year-old.

Until he’s finally drafted, here’s some fun look at the Stanley Cup, the way a real trophy is supposed to look:

Champagne is the drink of champions and every year and every party we go to, champagne is always in me. That’s always good. It always cleans me out very good inside. Beer is popular. A lot of players have kids, so I know you mentioned cereal. Froot Loops is probably one of my favorite cereals that has been in me. The first time we were in Russia, they filled me up with vodka — and that’s one big shot glass. Clark Gillies told me that when he won, he used to take his dogs for a walk every day. His dogs were an important part of their win, so he had his dogs eat out of me. Larry Robinson owns farms and he had his cow eat out of me. We went to a movie with Martin Brodeur and his kids and we sat in the front row and they filled me up with popcorn.


#1          (see all posts) 2007/03/23 (Fri) @ 17:04

Wasn’t Lindros a bit of a disappointment even before the concussions? Jagr was about the same age, made the NHL at a younger age, and seemed to me to be more dominant in his prime. But you probably know hockey a lot better than I do.


#2    tangotiger      (see all posts) 2007/03/23 (Fri) @ 17:23

In his first 7 seasons with Philly, he played 431 games, with 263 G and 600 points, with +177.  Divide by 6, and you get 72 GP, 38 G, 100 PTS, +30.  He was 26 at the end of that period.

Even if you want to bring up any player, because of Lindros’ combination of skill and size, we were all looking at 10 years of Messier-like play.  Not what we saw.

Jagr was always a bit tough to forecast.

Forberg came into the league a bit late, but was great right away, and has aged well, despite the injuries.


#3    Tangotiger      (see all posts) 2007/05/22 (Tue) @ 15:22

An interesting story of a kid kicked out of a league for being “too good”:

http://www.hockeyanalysis.com/?p=576

And his coach responds here:

http://www.hockeyanalysis.com/?p=576#comment-74786

Most of the comments are very interesting.


#4    tangotiger      (see all posts) 2007/07/17 (Tue) @ 13:06

Sidney Crosby, a sure-fire 1st overall pick at the time in summer of 2005, was the MVP for the 2006/07 season.  No surprise.

John Taveras is 3 years and 44 days younger than Crosby.  Three years ago, in the Major Junior Leagues, they were both highly covered, and both received the highest possible marks for their play.

So, that would mean that since Crosby was drafted in 2005, that Tavares can be drafted in 2008?  Not so fast.

The age cutoff for the draft is September 15.  Crosby was born Aug 7, while Tavares is Sep 20.  Ooops.  Those 5 days means that the greatest undrafted talent today can’t be drafted for another two years.

Since Tavares, today, is too good for the OHL (Junior league), how would it make sense for him to play there for two more years?  While you can argue the age restriction is important because you want to have the player developed, in this particular case, the age restriction will restrict his development.

Wayne Gretzky managed to play in the WHA when he was 17 years old (back then, the NHL drafted kids at 20 years old!) because the WHA needed players, and what better place to tap than quality 17-18 yr olds that the NHL by policy wouldn’t touch. And so, Gretzky found a better outlet than his junior league.

Tavares will end up doing the same.  The NHL has competition with European and Russian leagues.  It will be inevitable that if the NHL doesn’t allow Tavares to be drafted in 2008 that he will play professionally in Europe or Russia.  It’s a ridiculous position to take because he was born 5 days beyond some cutoff date.

Is there a solution?  Sure, an easy one.  Anyone born within 30 days of missing the cutoff is eligible for the draft, but must be drafted in the first two rounds.  Anyone born within 90 days of missing the cutoff must be drafted in the first round.  Within 180 days and you must be drafted in the first 10 picks.

This way, if Tavares was born between Aug 16 and Sept 14, he’d be eligible, but he’d have to be picked with one of the first 60 picks.

Obviously, you can negotiate the parameters.  Maybe you want to do 30 days 30 picks, 60 days 15 picks, 180 days 5 picks, etc.  Whether it’s a tiered level like this, or a continuous function (like 900/daysFromCutoff = maxPickLevel, maximum 182 daysFromCutoff), the binary approach (cutoff date, in or out) doesn’t work in all cases.  While it works in most, it fails at the exact point that we most care about: a player that is considered too good to be kept out of the NHL.


#5    Tangotiger      (see all posts) 2008/04/16 (Wed) @ 15:17

I know I’ve linked to related stories, but I can’t find it right now, and this thread is the closest to it:

http://www.slate.com/id/2188866

I would have preferred a per-capita value, than the gross value, but we’ll take what we can get.

The freakanomics article therein linked is the one that I remember linking.


#6    Tangotiger      (see all posts) 2008/12/26 (Fri) @ 16:33

Watch the highlights of a really cool goal:

http://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/blog/puck_daddy/post/Video-Future-star-John-Tavares-s-incredible-puc?urn=nhl,131260

Juggling and off-balance…


#7    rempart      (see all posts) 2008/12/27 (Sat) @ 19:15

IMO Bobby Orr was the greatest talent to ever play. Gretzky may have been the most productive, as the whole was greater than the sum of the parts. But,a team full of Orr’s would beat a team full of Gretzky’s, because the game is more than producing offensively. I also believe that you can make an argument that he wasn’t even the best centerman to play the game. With Lemieux, Beliveau, and Messier making challenges.


#8    Tangotiger      (see all posts) 2008/12/28 (Sun) @ 20:20

Well, a team of Bobby Orr’s would not beat a team of Wayne Gretzky’s from the age of 18 to 38. 

Obviously you mean Orr at his prime.  And, at his prime, he and 99 were pretty well neck-and-neck, as was Mario and Gordie Howe.


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