THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Or maybe don’t get it, as per one Amazon reviewer:

http://www.amazon.com/review/product/1597971294/ref=cm_cr_dp_synop?_encoding=UTF8&sortBy=bySubmissionDateDescending#R267ZTWJY7U55K

I appreciate Larry’s honest review.

I’ve got The Book and I love it. I think Larry’s review is a little harsh, though I tend to agree with his premise with regards to the section on clutch hitting. Despite areas where I wasn’t sure I agreed with the methods, it was still a very easy read and put together in a way where a baseball fan with a minimal knowledge of the math can still understand what’s going on.

I’m actually curious as to some specific examples he could provide. Maybe he’s right, maybe he’s wrong, but either way it wouldn’t hurt to examine some of the methods used in The Book to see how well they hold up to scrutiny.

JD, thanks for the kind words.

I don’t really have an issue with his opinion.  The Book is a very niche book, so it’s going to not appeal to a big portion of the potential readers.  However, there is enough chapter previews and excerpts on our site that any potential online buyer would have a great feel if this book would be for them or not.

I’m happy he at least gave the book a go.  I am surprised that there are alot of readers out there that would appreciate this book but have chosen to not pick it up.  I have no idea why.

Me, I get excited when the new THT annual comes out, or the old Baseball Abstracts or STATS Scoreboards, etc.  Anything sabermetric-related, and I’d be happy to gobble it up. 

MGL has even guaranteed the book, and I don’t know that anyone’s ever asked him for a refund.

Oh, and I wouldn’t put it past people to put out a negative review of the book without even reading it.  I’ve read three fairly negative reviews, of which one was made by someone who didn’t read the book.  I know, because the first edition was being shipped out of my house, and so I had the complete client list.  This person (in Tampa) said he bought it and started posting how bad the sac bunt chapter was because it didn’t consider a,b,c.  But, the book specifically did consider a,b,c.  Asking him to elaborate, he said that he lent the book to a friend.  I never shipped any book anywhere close to where he said he lived, and I never heard from him again.

I don’t mind negative reviews, but at least be specific enough to cite something in the book to at least prove that you read it.

I’m planning on buying the book as soon as I get my address situation fixed. I’ve found the work on this site exceptional, though I don’t exactly follow everything you guys write.

On a side note, would it be worthwhile to read either the Hidden Game of Baseball or The Numbers Game? I hear those are two of the big early books, non-Bill-James division.

I would recommend The Hidden Game ahead of our book, as it serves as a great basis.  You can find it at your local library, or through inter-library loan. 

The Numbers Game (Schwarz) is a history/recap book, and enjoyable on its own merits.

Thanks for the recommendation.
By the way Tango, I was wondering if you post any of your work on ice hockey analysis online. I just read this morning that, according to Ray Ratto of the SF Chronicle, “History suggests that high-scoring teams go further in the playoffs...” and was wondering if this was indeed true or he was just throwing something out there.
Here’s the URL for the column.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/05/07/SPVF10IRLI.DTL

No, I haven’t posted anything online.  I am not sure if that’s going to change.

As for the statement, it sounds like b.s.  My expectation is that it’s just like baseball, and you care about the score differential the most, regardless of whether you are offense-happy or defense-happy.

Score differential sounds more plausible that Ratto’s reasoning.
Tango, do you know if there is some sort of pythagorean formula for pro hockey, and if so, what the exponent for the bottom half of the equation would be? I figure (GS + GA)/(GS^2 + GA^2) wouldn’t exactly be the most accurate way to go.

For me, your book serves as a tremendous reference.  If I’m ever stuck trying to determine how/what to research it is very helpful to refer to the studies conducted to explore your methods.  In that sense, I think you have achieved something fantastic whether intended or not.  While there are many other books I will read and never look at again, I could go through The Book once a week and pick up something new.

It’s not like Neyer’s book, that Chris Jaffe referred to as bathroom reading (in a positive sense), but I also don’t think it’s something to read in one sitting.  Then again, I don’t necessarily think you guys planned for it to be a one sitting book.

Overall, though, since we are all part of what is essentially a self-serving community, I think we owe it to ourselves and the authors to cough up the 14.95 or so and, at the very least, give it a try.  It won’t be for everyone, but for everyone it is for it is worth every cent.

Aaron: I’ll refer you to http://www.hockeyanalytics.com

You should also join the yahoo group HAG_list.  I made a recent post there that shows that an exponent of “2” works just fine.  The PythagenPat version required an “x” value of… I forget exactly… something like .38.

***

Eric: cool, thanks.

It is impossible to read it in one sitting.  It took me at least two sittings to get through the Sac bunt chapter itself nevermind the whole book, and I was super excited about it.  It is a very tough read.  At the same time, the “Book says” boxes allows the reader to simply jump to the mini-conclusion, and go from there.

Very little of the book money comes into our pockets anyway.  Probably a dollar, maybe two or something.  (I wouldn’t know, since we’ve yet to receive our royalties for the second edition, and it’s been well over a year.)

Memo to authors: self-publish.  Go to http://www.lulu.com, or try http://www.amazonservices.com/fulfillment/

We’d be better off simply putting a “donate” button on our site, asking for a couple of bucks, and giving the book away as a PDF.  The argument against that, as hard as it is to believe, is that if you make the price too low, a “low quality” gets attached to it.

Thanks for the help Tango.

Friendly reminder to make your Amazon purchases through the link above.

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I noticed a new (positive) review just a day after I made this post.  Thank you Mr. Brobst.

Amazon is still out of stock for a few weeks now, but you can get it from the publisher:
http://www.potomacbooksinc.com/Books/BookDetail.aspx?productID=153776

They’ve got it 30% off, which is close to the Amazon price.  But, you do have to pay for the shipping.

I have no idea (yet) why the book is not at Amazon.