THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

My first question is linked to PITCHf/x, and deals with the reaction time.  I will presume that a hitter has four things he has to do:
1. figure out what the pitcher is throwing
2. where it’s going to cross the plate
3. when does the batter have to decide if he’s going to swing
4. when does he start his swinging motion

Some, or all, of that might overlap.  Exactly what is the process.  And if you can give us an illustration with a 90mph fastball, that’d be nice.

If you look up and notice that the fielders are shifted on you, how much ability do you feel you had to alter where you hit the ball (if any).  If you did try to alter the direction of your hit, did it compromise anything about your swing (i.e. power, contact)?

If you looked up and saw the fielders all playing very shallow, or very deep, did you feel you had any ability to control how hard you hit the ball to fit it in between the infielders and outfielders?  Or would trying to control the power of the swing have compromised contact?

I know you may not really be able to quote any results, but did you think you had the ability to change or control where you hit the ball?

Related to Greg: how much b.s. is it that fielders are moving on the throw, as if they know what the pitcher is throwing (top spin, backspin), where he’s throwing, and the batter’s plane of swing?

Tango re #3:

It would be tough, I think, to distinguish between a fielder’s moving on the pitch vs. moving on the batter’s swing.  I played third base through high school (obviously not very well) - I certainly recall being able to at least notice whether the batter was “on” the pitch or behind it, which would bear heavily on whether he was likely to pull it to me.  Also probably the batter’s shoulders and knee would give the possibility of a pulled hit away a fraction of a second before the swing really went through the plate.  More recently, while pitching softball, I could tell as the batter was swinging whether I was in danger on the mound.

I don’t know what position Jeff played, maybe he can answer this from both a hitter’s and fielder’s perspective - whether what I recall from HS ball has any bearing once you get up to the level where I can’t see the pitches any more (sighs)…

#1
1) recognize pitch by spin out of pitchers hand..curve,slider.fastball,etc
2)see how much movement or break pitcher has on his pitches to know whether its a strike or pitch he can hit well.
3)and 4) I was pitcher, never was paid to hit but that is a tough question because I think you could get some different answers on that one.I have a friend who played with Barry Bonds and he could tell what pitch they were throwing before the ball ever left the pitchers hand..pretty special..

#2 Greg
I think the hitters like Tony Gwynn,Wade Boggs, Rod Carew, Pete Rose had that kind of bat control but most people wouldnt be able to do it without screwing their swing up or throwing at bats away.

#3
All teams fielders know the signs and the infielders relay them to the outfield.For example a pitcher throws an offspeed pitch to a (r)handed batter the shortstop will cheat towards the hole because the batter is more likely to be out front and pull the ball.They will play more up the middle on a pitcher who throwing hard same for the other fielders.The great infieders read the ball off the bat before anyone else and get great jumps on the ball,they just have great instincts from doing it at an early age for a long time.AND Greg that feeling you get on the mound on balls about to come back at you is called self preservation, I once had a bullet hit at me by Kirby Puckett that just missed my forehead and although I was pissed about giving up a hit had to remind myself that it would of been worse had it hit my forehead…

Jeff, thanks for answering questions!

I have a few more questions about batters’ pitch recognition.
1) How much can they pick up from release/grip?  I know the curve gets released over the top of the hand, for example.  I’m curious how much of cue that kind of thing is or whether spin is the main cue.
2) When a pitcher is said to be “tipping his pitches” what kinds of things does that refer to?
3) What are the spin cues that the batter picks up?  I’ve read about the “red dot” due to how the slider spins and some things from Dave Baldwin about different stripes visible on four-seamers versus two-seamers.  Does a slider always have a red dot?  It seems from the work I’ve done with spin parameters in the PITCHf/x data that some pitchers’ sliders would show the red dot to hitters and other pitchers’ sliders would have a different spin axis so that the hitter couldn’t see a red dot.

I also had a few questions about “stuff”.
4) When a pitcher has good stuff in one game versus poor stuff in another game, what causes that?  Is it subtle variations in mechanics?  Do things like the humidity and temperature affect stuff?
5) How does good stuff versus poor stuff (from the same pitcher) translate into what happens with the pitches.  Does good stuff mean the pitches break more?
6) I know that fastball speed tends to drop a mph or two for a pitcher between the first inning and the seventh or eighth inning of a game.  Does getting tired also affect the movement on breaking pitches?

Is it still usual to have a pre-game team meeting where the pitcher and/or catcher discuss how they are going to approach pitching the opposition hitters?

How much did you want to be involved in calling for individual pitches and pitch locations once the game started or did you want to rely on the catcher to make those decisions?  Did this vary from catcher to catcher depending on his experience?  Was it usually you or the catcher how first realized during a game that a certain pitch was not working for you that day?

Were there opposing hitters that you felt “had your number” and that you were never successful against no matter what you tried?  Was the opposite true, that there were opposing hitters that you felt you could almost always get out?  If either of these were true, what do you think caused either you or the hitter to dominate?

1)I THINK THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE BATTER IS SEEING THE SPIN OUT OF THE PITCHERS HAND, THE HITTERS WHO SEE THE SAME PITCHERS YEAR AFTER YEAR WILL FIND LITTLE THINGS THAT MIGHT HELP TIP WHAT PITCH
IS COMING....
2)Tipping pitches pitchers will sometimes slow their arm speed on change ups,have a different arm slot on breaking balls and do little things like turn their bodies more on a fastball than a breaking ball and they will never really find out unless they watch video very closely or someone on the staff recognizes it.Most of the time the coaches are focused on every thing else that is going on..

3)Sliders with the red dot are breaking balls that are thrown with a slider or cutter grip and thrown as hard as a fastball..A very good slider always has the dot an excellent one, ones that some of these guys throw in the uper 80’s to low 90’s the hitters have a tough time recognizing the pitch.Less reaction time and usually with a more of a slide down and away when getting on top like Brad Lidge or Robb Nenn use to throw to (R) handed batters........

4) 5) A pitchers arm doesnt always respond the same after pitching the previous game,depending on how many pitches are thrown. I think that pitching in warmer conditions is better because your body stays loose and less likely to stiffen up and pull or tear something.You can feel a huge difference warming up in the heat especially if your still sore from the last start and when you feel good stuff or are fully recovered and strong from previous outing you have your top velocity on all your pitches which translates into good stuff.Poor stuff usually means you arm is not responding as well playind 145-162 games with travel is nothing like high school or college.

6) Getting tired has an effect on all your pitches,generally not being able to finish or follow thru on your pitches and losing velocity means losing snap on your breaking balls,your muscles get fatiged kind of like weight lifting feel.......

9)I think almost all teams have meetings to go over the hitters,being more prepared gives you a better chance to win.I wanted to be making the final on decisions on pitches because Iknow what I feel the most confident on throwing what pitch at a specific count but when you have someone you trust and believe in you work together and he knows you and what you like to throw.When you didnt agree they just come out and talk and you tell them why you want to throw a different pitch to the hitter.Some catchers who are not in sync can throw pitchers off by constantly shaking off pitches and messing up their tempo of the game..

9)A pitcher knows by the way he feels and by the way the hitters are hitting him.You dont feel fastball has enough zip and you use change up more and try to use the corners or locate a little better .There were guys that I knew I would get out because hitters have certain pitches or locations that are weaknesses that they have trouble with on the other hand hitters that have success against you, you keep trying different things to get them out sometimes you back them off the plate and get them a little uncomfortable in the batters box but it is generally constant adjustments and changing speeds.

9) I watch alot of games now and I feel I can sense the pitcher throwing pitches that they really dont have confidence in by watching how they throw it and their body language.I think some pitching coaches dont give the pitchers enough wiggle room to shake off something they dont want to throw.You know when you throw it the it going to have negative results which translates into losing confidence which means you wont be on the mound very long......

In my experience, through college ball, is that you recognize the pitch type and likely swing plane and not so much make a decision.  This is where experience and “innate” ability make the difference.  Evidently I didn’t get enough experience and not enough innate ability.

Jeff, does this accurately reflect the pro level players?  I think Dykstra meant you just react to what you see, if you analyze the pitch it will be by you already.

The analytic types probably reflect after each pitch/AB what happened, not so much that they decide as it happens.  Gwynn, Boggs, Carew, et al have great memories of each pitch and can relate after the pitch what they saw - maybe they did see it better, but still react in an “automatic” way to hit the ball.  Repeat this process enough and you get the experience component.  If you can’t analyze what you saw, no experience (that’s me!).

Think of Ted Williams and his writings on hitting.  He had a way to talk about the process, but did things really slow down that much that he could make that kind of recognition and decision in the time required?  He saw pitches clearly and could relate what he saw.

Or am I way off base?

Dufman
I think you are right on with your comments and well spoken......Jeff

Did you learn a lot about pitching when you were in the minors?  Did you learn mostly from coaches and instructors or other pitchers?  Did you suffer any pitching related injuries?  What skills did you lack that kept you from progressing to higher levels?  Did you feel that your team fairly assessed your abilities?  Do you feel that they could have done more to help you develop?

19)Not alot of pitching help from coaches although I did have a pitching coach who helped me the most my 2nd year, he helped mentally and showed me a different way to throw a changeup..He left after that year but was the best I had while in minors..I learned from my dad and a coach in college but mostly yourself thru experience in games and scrimmages..My bggest problem was breaking the ball off the joint of my pitching shoulder at 15 playing pick up football..Was told to forget ever pitching again,body cast 7 weeks.Never regained range of motion I had before.Playing full seasons after 2 years started breaking down and battled shoulder pain the rest of the time..The only thing different I would have done is work with a physical therapist that I know well now and have my shoulder stronger and more stable and work on range of motion like the Jaeger bands program for example.That was my biggest hurdle, when healthy I felt as capable or more than anybody else I played with,that is just my honest opinion.

What type of mechanical flaws most frequently result in injury? If you were teaching someone how to pitch, what would you tell them not to do?

21)I would stay away from throwing across his body like some guys do(big strain on shoulder)and I see kids throwing sidearm at a young age and throwing breaking balls which are tough on the elbow.Learn the proper mechanics of throwing over the top first,your elbow will last alot longer and learn to throw a curveball correctly when old enough..Learn to follow thru on your pitches by bending your back on release..

If a pitcher does tip his pitches, how big of a difference is it to the hitter?  For instance, does it turn a .300 hitter into a .310 hitter, or a .500 hitter, or a .750 hitter?

23)Jim
I think that all depends on how good a hitter you are,I know that if your a pro and you know what the pitch is going to be, your chances of hitting the ball hard somewhere increases and your confidence gets a nice boost too.