THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Tuesday, April 07, 2009

Forecasting Playing Time

Very nice work by Victor:

When I ran a correlation between Marcel’s projected plate appearances and a player’s actual plate appearances, I came up with an R of .28…
...
Using these five variables [ed note: Age, starter in game 1 of upcoming season, last year PA, last year WAR, number of days on last year DL) and a constant, the model was able to achieve… an R of about .86.

Fantastic!  Now, the fun part is how the Community will do against Victor’s model.  Hopefully, Victor will give us the lowdown on Oct 1.