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Fantastic stuff from Jeff: part1, part2.
First off, the mean forecast for any starter is 40%. So, Jeff’s got his forecasts, at the extreme, at +/- 15%. I have to believe the uncertainty of his estimate is going to be mighty high, some +/-20%.
Secondly, the median stay is some 50 days or so.
Conclusion: pitchers are expected to miss ALOT of time.
Tom - for the uncertainty (+/-20%), do you mean on the total number of trips in a year?
I ran the numbers to get projections before the 2010 season (posted high and low names in the part 1 fangraphs thread), and I calculated a 28% correlation between the calculated chance of going on the DL and actually ending up on the DL in 2010. I’m sure trying to correlate when one of the items is binary (i.e. ending on the DL or not) probably throws off the correlation. I don’t know enough about statistics to know if there’s any way to deal with that.
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INTERESTING IDENTIFICATION OF A COUPLE OF DETERMINANTS. WOULD LOVE TO (LAZY GUY, I KNOW I SHOULD DO IT MYSELF) IF THERE’S ANY CORRELATION TO “AMOUNT OF BREAK” IN BREAKING BALL TO DL TIME, TOO. I WONDER AT WHAT POINT I CAN BE COMFORTABLE SAYING,
“HARD TOSSER HAS ALREADY HIT MEDIAN TRIPS/TIME ON DL, SO HE’S A PRETTY GOOD INVESTMENT NOW VS. A SIMILAR PITCHER WHO *HASN’T* SPENT TIME ON THE DL”
ANYHOW, YEAH, REALLY COOL. STUFF I’VE WANTED TO SEE FOR SOME TIME NOW!!!