THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Monday, November 28, 2011

Forecaster’s Challenge 2011: Results (preview)

There was one official competition, and three unofficial one.

The consensus pick among the other 21 pro forecasters ended up in 2nd place, by a single point, against the official winner (which I’ll reveal tomorrow). 

When looking at the four competitions overall, the consensus pick finished #1.  Marcel finished 12th among the 22, and the Fangraphs community was a sliver behind at 13th.

The consensus also finished #5 last year over the 4 competitions.

My main takeaway is that the best thing to do is take a consensus of the pros.  No one is really consistently providing value-added.

By the way, using my points system, tied for 1st place among players were Justin Verlander and Matt Kemp.