THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

This is the penultimate list:
http://tangotiger.net/forecast/marcel_community.csv

Feel free to pass it around. I expect very very few changes.  As soon as I close down community voting sometime tomorrow, I’ll have the final list, hopefully by Saturday evening.

The last column is “Quatlus above baseline”, where the baseline is the average between the 25th and 0th percentile of his position group.

I also threw in Fantasy dollars in there.

The biggest risk that Marcel taking is Sandoval with the Giants.  This is a double-whammy of Marcel having a good forecast for a player with limited playing time (reliability of only .39) combined with the Fans belief that he will be a full-time regular.

I expect Pablo to be part of the Marcel/Community teams far far more than the 5% that a random player would be.  Maybe say 25%?  That’s called high risk.

After I run the computer draft, I’ll let you know where all the high risk picks were.

Even though you’re intentionally reducing the value of relievers, I think Marcel will be hurt quite a bit by not knowing about closers.

For example, J.J. Putz is rated as something like the 5th most valuable reliever, above Mariano Rivera. But Putz will lose something like 1/3 of his total value, and 1/2 of his value over baseline, because (unless Rodriguez gets hurt) he won’t be getting save opportunities.

It probably would have been better to somehow include save opportunities as part of the community playing time forecast, since this is something that a simple regression just can’t know about.

Yes, I should have asked the fans who they saw as the closer.  My bad.

Sandoval had great minor league stats last year and is really young.  I don’t think he’s that much of a risk.  He’s a guy I’ll target in my fantasy league, primarily because he qualifies at catcher.

The link in post 1 now has the official Marcel/Community forecasts.

If anyone downloaded the ESPN projections in a nice spreadsheet, please forward them to me:
http://games.espn.go.com/flb/tools/projections

Unfortunately, they set it up horribly for me to copy/paste.  I’ve got the CBS forecasts, and they were fine to copy/paste.

Otherwise, I’m going ahead without ESPN.

ESPN doesn’t show projected AB in their sortable projections either, only in the full set.

Tango,

Why did you go through all the trouble of downloading the CBS Sportsline projections when I posted them 2 months ago? You even thanked me for doing this. I even linked the projections to MLBAM ID’s. See post #17:

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/forecasters_challenge_2009_full_rules_and_participants/

I will grab the ESPN projections when I get some free-time. When I do grab them, should I post the link to the spreadsheet in this thread or in the thread I just listed?

There is no easy way to download the ESPN projections. When I looked at them before I thought the player name and projections were on the same line. This isn’t the case. I also thought they showed the link to the player card which would show the Stats Inc ID. I would just leave ESPN out of the competition.

terps: a couple of points

1. They revised their forecasts up until the last second (see: ARod), so I had to redownload what they had.  No big deal, since CBS did it easily enough for me.

2. Your efforts have not gone to waste since the big trouble will be for me to link each forecast to a MLBAMid, which you did for me.  So, big thanks there.

***

MGL scrubbed the ESPN data for me, so that’s a time saver.  The pain of course will be to link those to IDs.  If someone wants to volunteer to do that, that’d be great.

Tango-

If you still need help with IDs (which I agree were a pain) I can offer some assistance. 

-Eric

Eric, fantastic, thanks!  If anyone else wants the same punishment, let me know.

Watching the Sunday night game reminded me of my first thought when looking at the Marcel/community projections: I bet Tango gets more Dempster than Sandoval. 

I also bet you fill up your SPs before other teams.

Anyways, looking forward to seeing the results.

I just finished doing the cleanup of all the picks.  I’ll be running the program to allocate players later this month.