THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

2,7,7,2,96.

“For Marcus, whose knowledge and insight is paramount to my work.” - Mitchel

“For Marcus, my one and only source for analytical guidance and approval.” - Tom

#1, that is funny!  The presumption and the inscriptions, that is…

1 er
9 k
4 h
2 bb
86 pitches

3,7,5,2,94

4,8,6,4,98

0 ER
7 K
4 H
3 BB
91 pitches

Should I win, sign it as follows:

“My wolf pack, it grew by one.”
-- Tango and/or MGL

1,8,6,3,85

1 ER
10 K
6 H
3 BB
96 pitches

4 ER
6 KK
9 H
4 BB
89 Pitches

0 ER
11 K
0 H
2 BB
104 Pitches

Clearly, no one here understands how to look like a prognostication genius. I predict a no-hitter for Strasburg—if I’m right, I look like a genius; if not, no one will remember!

1, 7, 5, 2, 90

2 ER
8 K
3 H
3 BB
88 pitches

3 ER
6 K
7 H
2 BB
97 pitches

4ER
6K
6H
3BB
82 pitches

2 ER, 6 K, 6 H, 2BB, 96 pitches

0ER
9K
4H
1BB
84P

2 ER, 7 K, 6 H, 2 BB, 106 pitches

2 ER
6 K
4 H
1 BB
90 pitches

2 ER
5K
5 H
2 BB
91 Pitches

2 ER
7 K
5 H
3 BB
97 Pitches

1,4,4,3,93

ER K H BB P Pitcher
1 04 03 2 081 Felix
2 10 04 2 103 Prior
4 07 04 3 102 Kerry Wood
2 07 04 0 089 Pedro
4 04 11 3 115* Rocket
1 05 03 2 080* Gooden

* estimated

ER K H BB P Pitcher
2 6 4 2 80 Strasburg
(median of above, except for pitches)

1 ER
9 K’s
3 H
2 BB
105 pitches

John (#4) - Sorry, i picked before I saw the answers.

3,7,5,2,86

Strasburg’s debut

2 ER, 8 K, 4 H, 3 BB, 92 pitches

ER 3
K 7
H 8
BB 3
PC 92

ER 1
K 8
H 5
BB 2
PC 95

2 ER, 6 K, 4 H, 2 BB, and 85 pitches

ER 2
K 9
H 4
BB 4
PC 99

2
6
6
2
93

ER - 1
K - 10
H - 3
BB - 1
PC - 102

4,6,5,4,82

3 ER, 5 K, 4 H, 4 W, 96 P

0ER, 3K, 4H, 3BB, 88 pitches

6 ER, 6 K, 10 H, 3 W, 95 P

Theoretically, assuming every participant is a rationally self-interested individual, the distribution of predictions should resemble the distribution of possible results. The downside of picking a less-likely outcome is made up for by the upside of not having to win the other categories.

2 ER
4 K
5 H
1 BB
86 pitches

3 ER, 6 K, 5 H, 3 BB, 91 Pitches

5 ER
3 K
8 H
3 BB
79 pitches

What the last guy said

0 er
4 k
1 h
1 bb
81 p

3 ER
8 K
6 H
4 BB
97 pitches

3 ER, 5 K, 6 H, 3 BB, 89 Pitches

5 ER
4 K
7 H
3 BB
92 Pitches

0 ER
12 K
3 H
3 BB
106 Pitches

3 ER
5 K
7 H
3 BB
94 pitches

0 ER
8 K
2 H
1 BB
80 Pitches

3ER, 9K, 4H, 4BB, 97 Pitches

2 ER
7 K
4 H
2 BB
87 pitches

3 ER, 5 K, 5 H, 2 BB, and 85 pitches.

For all future posts, please just write your guess using the following form:

Strasburg,2,6,4,2,80,Tangotiger

It’ll make it easier to pick out the picks.

1 er, 7k, 4h, 1bb, 91 pitches

The guesses so far, formatted per #49.

Strasburg,2,7,7,2,96,marcus
Strasburg,1,9,4,2,86,brian cartwright
Strasburg,3,7,5,2,94,john beamer
Strasburg,4,8,6,4,98,giantsrainman
Strasburg,0,7,4,3,91,bill baer
Strasburg,1,8,6,3,85,peter jensen
Strasburg,1,10,6,3,96,dq
Strasburg,4,6,9,1,89,sam giddins
Strasburg,0,11,0,2,104,david gassko
Strasburg,1,7,5,2,90,hizouse
Strasburg,2,8,3,3,88,adam
Strasburg,3,6,7,2,97,kyle lobner
Strasburg,4,6,6,3,82,ken
Strasburg,2,6,6,2,96,jordan
Strasburg,0,9,4,1,84,ctv
Strasburg,2,7,6,2,106,dsmosk1
Strasburg,2,6,4,1,90,jbrew
Strasburg,2,5,5,2,91,geri monsen
Strasburg,2,7,5,3,97,evan
Strasburg,1,4,4,3,93,jn
Strasburg,2,6,4,2,80,tangotiger
Strasburg,1,9,3,2,105,jamie
Strasburg,3,7,5,2,86,jeff z
Strasburg,2,8,4,3,92,red sox talk
Strasburg,3,7,8,3,92,dmb
Strasburg,1,8,5,2,95,john
Strasburg,2,6,4,2,85,mr. F
Strasburg,2,9,4,4,99,mike
Strasburg,2,6,6,2,93,redsauce
Strasburg,1,10,3,1,102,josh l.
Strasburg,4,6,5,4,82,jeremy
Strasburg,3,5,4,4,96,patriot
Strasburg,0,3,4,3,88,mcg
Strasburg,6,6,10,3,95,whateverfor
Strasburg,2,4,5,1,86,chris p.
Strasburg,3,6,5,3,91,daniel
Strasburg,5,3,8,3,79,statzombie
Strasburg,0,4,1,1,81,jacob
Strasburg,3,8,6,4,97,scott m
Strasburg,3,5,6,3,89,david moran
Strasburg,5,4,7,3,92,anon
Strasburg,0,12,3,3,106,ian
Strasburg,3,5,7,3,94,greg
Strasburg,0,8,2,1,80,david p
Strasburg,3,9,4,4,97,3rd period points
Strasburg,2,7,4,2,87,e-6
Strasburg,3,5,5,2,85,derek
Strasburg,1,7,4,1,91,iyh

Strasburg,1,4,3,0,32, Newcomer

Strasburg,2,6,5,2,90,Marco Fujimoto

Through #53, averages (I believe):

Strasburg,2.1,6.7,4.9,2.4,90.4,AvgThru53

Here’s the running total:

Strasburg,2,7,7,2,96,marcus,1
Strasburg,1,9,4,2,86,Brian,3
Strasburg,3,7,5,2,94,John,4
Strasburg,4,8,6,4,98,giantsrainman,5
Strasburg,0,7,4,3,91,Bill,6
Strasburg,1,8,6,3,85,Pet,7
Strasburg,1,10,6,3,96,dq,8
Strasburg,4,6,9,4,89,sam,9
Strasburg,0,11,0,2,104,david,10
Strasburg,1,7,5,2,90,Hizouse,11
Strasburg,2,8,3,3,88,adam,12
Strasburg,3,6,7,2,97,kyle,13
Strasburg,4,6,6,3,82,ken,14
Strasburg,2,6,6,2,96,Jordan,15
Strasburg,0,9,4,1,84,ctv,16
Strasburg,2,7,6,2,106,dsmok1,17
Strasburg,2,6,4,1,90,jbre,18
Strasburg,2,5,5,2,91,geri,19
Strasburg,2,7,5,3,97,evan,20
Strasburg,1,4,4,3,93,jn,21
Strasburg,1,9,3,2,105,jamie,23
Strasburg,3,7,5,2,86,jeff,24
Strasburg,2,8,4,3,92,redsoxtal,25
Strasburg,3,7,8,3,92,dmb,26
Strasburg,1,8,5,2,95,john,27
Strasburg,2,6,4,2,85,mrf,28
Strasburg,2,9,4,4,99,mike,29
Strasburg,2,6,6,2,93,redsauce,30
Strasburg,1,10,3,1,102,jos,31
Strasburg,4,6,5,4,82,jeremy,32
Strasburg,3,5,4,4,96,Patriot,33
Strasburg,0,3,4,3,88,mcG,34
Strasburg,6,6,10,3,95,whateverfor,35
Strasburg,2,4,5,1,86,chrisp,36
Strasburg,3,6,5,3,91,Daniel,37
Strasburg,5,3,8,3,79,statzombie,38
Strasburg,0,4,1,1,81,jacob,39
Strasburg,3,8,6,4,97,scottm,40
Strasburg,3,5,6,3,89,DavidMoran,41
Strasburg,5,4,7,3,92,anon,42
Strasburg,0,12,3,3,106,ian,43
Strasburg,3,5,7,3,94,gregg,44
Strasburg,0,8,2,1,80,davidp,45
Strasburg,3,9,4,4,97,3rdperiodpoints,46
Strasburg,2,7,4,2,87,e6,47
Strasburg,3,5,5,2,85,dere,48

Mike: ahhh!! I should have refreshed!

4 ER
4 K
5 H
4 BB
80 pitches

Strasburg,0,0,0,0,1,MangoLiger

Yes, you read that right. He blows out his arm on the first pitch trying to throw 120 mph.

Wind blowing in tonight, good night for a debut!

2,9,5,5,87

Strasburg,1,6,5,1,82,weskelton

#58/Mangoliner

The pitcher who starts the PA gets the result of the PA on their stat line, right?  So the end of the PA couldn’t be a hit, K, BB or an ER.  (Still possible, obviously.

Strasburg,2,6,4,2,92,MikeFast

Oddly enough, using a different methodology, I come to nearly the same conclusion as Tango, except for the pitch count.

I took the average of the guesses through post #50.  I did a pitch count estimator, which came out at about 99 pitches in 6 innings.  I scaled back everything to about 92 pitches, which was the average prediction for pitches.

0 ER, 6 K, 4 H, 1 BB, 93 pitches

ER - 5
K - 5
H - 6
BB - 4
Pitches - 90

Strasburg,2,8,7,2,84,Bobzilla

Strasburg,1,7,5,1,80,Dial

Strasburg,3,6,6,2,94,Ryan

I’m going with the Oliver line so far:

Strasburg,2,8,5,2,95,Steiner

It’s the Pirates also.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see another perfect game

Current:
Strasburg,2,7,7,2,96,marcus,1
Strasburg,1,9,4,2,86,Brian,3
Strasburg,3,7,5,2,94,John,4
Strasburg,4,8,6,4,98,giantsrainman,5
Strasburg,0,7,4,3,91,Bill,6
Strasburg,1,8,6,3,85,Pet,7
Strasburg,1,10,6,3,96,dq,8
Strasburg,4,6,9,4,89,sam,9
Strasburg,0,11,0,2,104,david,10
Strasburg,1,7,5,2,90,Hizouse,11
Strasburg,2,8,3,3,88,adam,12
Strasburg,3,6,7,2,97,kyle,13
Strasburg,4,6,6,3,82,ken,14
Strasburg,2,6,6,2,96,Jordan,15
Strasburg,0,9,4,1,84,ctv,16
Strasburg,2,7,6,2,106,dsmok1,17
Strasburg,2,6,4,1,90,jbre,18
Strasburg,2,5,5,2,91,geri,19
Strasburg,2,7,5,3,97,evan,20
Strasburg,1,4,4,3,93,jn,21
Strasburg,2,6,4,2,80,Tangotiger,22
Strasburg,1,9,3,2,105,jamie,23
Strasburg,3,7,5,2,86,jeff,24
Strasburg,2,8,4,3,92,redsoxtal,25
Strasburg,3,7,8,3,92,dmb,26
Strasburg,1,8,5,2,95,john,27
Strasburg,2,6,4,2,85,mrf,28
Strasburg,2,9,4,4,99,mike,29
Strasburg,2,6,6,2,93,redsauce,30
Strasburg,1,10,3,1,102,jos,31
Strasburg,4,6,5,4,82,jeremy,32
Strasburg,3,5,4,4,96,Patriot,33
Strasburg,0,3,4,3,88,mcG,34
Strasburg,6,6,10,3,95,whateverfor,35
Strasburg,2,4,5,1,86,chrisp,36
Strasburg,3,6,5,3,91,Daniel,37
Strasburg,5,3,8,3,79,statzombie,38
Strasburg,0,4,1,1,81,jacob,39
Strasburg,3,8,6,4,97,scottm,40
Strasburg,3,5,6,3,89,DavidMoran,41
Strasburg,5,4,7,3,92,anon,42
Strasburg,0,12,3,3,106,ian,43
Strasburg,3,5,7,3,94,gregg,44
Strasburg,0,8,2,1,80,davidp,45
Strasburg,3,9,4,4,97,3rdperiodpoints,46
Strasburg,2,7,4,2,87,e6,47
Strasburg,3,5,5,2,85,dere,48
Strasburg,1,7,4,1,91,iy,50
Strasburg,1,4,3,0,32,Newcom,52
Strasburg,2,6,5,2,90,MarcoFujimoto,53
Strasburg,4,4,5,4,80,Jamesian,57
Strasburg,0,0,0,0,1,MangoLig,58
Strasburg,2,9,5,5,87,Greg,59
Strasburg,1,6,5,1,82,weskelton,60
Strasburg,2,6,4,2,92,MikeFast,62
Srasburg,0,6,4,1,93,Jcross,63
Strasburg,5,5,6,4,90,Xeifran,64
Strasburg,2,8,7,2,84,Bobzilla,65
Strasburg,1,7,5,1,80,Dial,66

Median,2,7,5,2,91

***

Mike: had I used the median for the pitch count for the 6 guys I preselected, I would have been very close to you.

I just scaled it back because of the talk about limiting his usage, and even possibly shutting him down in September.

3, 7, 6, 4, and 94

including #70:

mean,2.1,6.6,4.9,2.4,88.6

Rounds to exactly the median, except for the PC which is obviously more impacted by the 1PC in #58 than the other categories.

Strasburg,1,5,5,1,79,EdD

(that’s a half-assed Marcels of his last three AAA starts weighted 5/4/3 with no adjustments other than simple rounding)

As I still haven’t read it, here’s a shot.
Strasburg,0,11,6,2,4,94,xx

David #10 - but they pull Strasburg after 7 even though he has the no hitter

KY: you have one too many numbers.

Sorted:

Strasburg,0,0,0,0,1,MangoLig,58
Strasburg,0,3,4,3,88,mcG,34
Strasburg,0,4,1,1,81,jacob,39
Strasburg,0,6,4,1,93,Jcross,63
Strasburg,0,7,4,3,91,Bill,6
Strasburg,0,8,2,1,80,davidp,45
Strasburg,0,9,4,1,84,ctv,16
Strasburg,0,11,0,2,104,david,10
Strasburg,0,12,3,3,106,ian,43
Strasburg,1,4,3,0,32,Newcom,52
Strasburg,1,4,4,3,93,jn,21
Strasburg,1,5,5,1,79,EdD,72
Strasburg,1,6,5,1,82,weskelton,60
Strasburg,1,7,4,1,91,iy,50
Strasburg,1,7,5,1,80,Dial,66
Strasburg,1,7,5,2,90,Hizouse,11
Strasburg,1,8,5,2,95,john,27
Strasburg,1,8,6,3,85,Pet,7
Strasburg,1,9,3,2,105,jamie,23
Strasburg,1,9,4,2,86,Brian,3
Strasburg,1,10,3,1,102,jos,31
Strasburg,1,10,6,3,96,dq,8
Strasburg,2,4,5,1,86,chrisp,36
Strasburg,2,5,5,2,91,geri,19
Strasburg,2,6,4,1,90,jbre,18
Strasburg,2,6,4,2,80,Tangotiger,22
Strasburg,2,6,4,2,85,mrf,28
Strasburg,2,6,4,2,92,MikeFast,62
Strasburg,2,6,5,2,90,MarcoFujimoto,53
Strasburg,2,6,6,2,93,redsauce,30
Strasburg,2,6,6,2,96,Jordan,15
Strasburg,2,7,4,2,87,e6,47
Strasburg,2,7,5,3,97,evan,20
Strasburg,2,7,6,2,106,dsmok1,17
Strasburg,2,7,7,2,96,marcus,1
Strasburg,2,8,3,3,88,adam,12
Strasburg,2,8,4,3,92,redsoxtal,25
Strasburg,2,8,5,2,95,Steiner,68
Strasburg,2,8,7,2,84,Bobzilla,65
Strasburg,2,9,4,4,99,mike,29
Strasburg,2,9,5,5,87,Greg,59
Strasburg,3,5,4,4,96,Patriot,33
Strasburg,3,5,5,2,85,dere,48
Strasburg,3,5,6,3,89,DavidMoran,41
Strasburg,3,5,7,3,94,gregg,44
Strasburg,3,6,5,3,91,Daniel,37
Strasburg,3,6,6,2,94,Ryan,67
Strasburg,3,6,7,2,97,kyle,13
Strasburg,3,7,5,2,86,jeff,24
Strasburg,3,7,5,2,94,John,4
Strasburg,3,7,6,4,94,hankp101,70
Strasburg,3,7,8,3,92,dmb,26
Strasburg,3,8,6,4,97,scottm,40
Strasburg,3,9,4,4,97,3rdperiodpoints,46
Strasburg,4,4,5,4,80,Jamesian,57
Strasburg,4,6,5,4,82,jeremy,32
Strasburg,4,6,6,3,82,ken,14
Strasburg,4,6,9,4,89,sam,9
Strasburg,4,8,6,4,98,giantsrainman,5
Strasburg,5,3,8,3,79,statzombie,38
Strasburg,5,4,7,3,92,anon,42
Strasburg,5,5,6,4,90,Xeifran,64
Strasburg,6,6,10,3,95,whateverfor,35

5ER, 8K, 7H, 4BB, 90.

1 ER, 8 K, 4 H, 2 BB, and 87 pitches (thinking 6 IP)

Reminder: all forecasts should follow the stated convention.  It makes life easier for me.

1, 8, 3, 1, 92

Wind blowing in tonight, good night for a debut!

The Nationals thought of everything.

3,8,7,3,89

Reminder: all forecasts should follow the stated convention.  It makes life easier for me.

Reminder: all forecasts should follow the stated convention.  It makes life easier for me.

Reminder: all forecasts should follow the stated convention.  It makes life easier for me.

Reminder: all forecasts should follow the stated convention.  It makes life easier for me.

Reminder: all forecasts should follow the stated convention.  It makes life easier for me.

Reminder: all forecasts should follow the stated convention.  It makes life easier for me.

Reminder: all forecasts should follow the stated convention.  It makes life easier for me.

Strasburg,0,8,3,1,100,JeremyG,84

This is the convention:
Strasburg,2,6,4,2,80,Tangotiger

This is the convention:
Strasburg,2,6,4,2,80,Tangotiger

This is the convention:
Strasburg,2,6,4,2,80,Tangotiger

This is the convention:
Strasburg,2,6,4,2,80,Tangotiger

This is the convention:
Strasburg,2,6,4,2,80,Tangotiger

This is the convention:
Strasburg,2,6,4,2,80,Tangotiger

This is the convention:
Strasburg,2,6,4,2,80,Tangotiger

Jeremy, thanks, perfect. 

(To others: The “84” thing is optional.  It refers to the post number, and obviously, you might not know exactly what it will be when you post.)

Strasburg,2,6,6,3,89,MattL,87

Strasburg,7,3,11,3,99,kg

Strasburg,2,4,5,2,89,EricD

Strasburg,4,6,8,1,85,RyanJL,90

Strasburg,3,5,3,0,87,cdoyle31

Strasburg,2,5,5,2,86,PraxsPop

Strasburg,0,5,3,0,71

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ Forgot my name, sorry

Strasburg,0,5,3,0,71,RC

Strasburg,2,7,4,2,95,Will

Strasburg, 3,7,6,2,95

Strasburg, 0 er, 11 k’s, 0 h, 0 bb, 117 pitches.

Sorted:

Strasburg,0,0,0,0,1,MangoLig,58
Strasburg,0,3,4,3,88,mcG,34
Strasburg,0,4,1,1,81,jacob,39
Strasburg,0,5,3,0,71,RC,93
Strasburg,0,6,4,1,93,Jcross,63
Strasburg,0,7,4,3,91,Bill,6
Strasburg,0,8,2,1,80,davidp,45
Strasburg,0,8,3,1,100,JeremyG,84
Strasburg,0,9,4,1,84,ctv,16
Strasburg,0,11,0,2,104,david,10
Strasburg,0,12,3,3,106,ian,43
Strasburg,1,4,3,0,32,Newcom,52
Strasburg,1,4,4,3,93,jn,21
Strasburg,1,5,5,1,79,EdD,72
Strasburg,1,6,5,1,82,weskelton,60
Strasburg,1,7,4,1,91,iy,50
Strasburg,1,7,5,1,80,Dial,66
Strasburg,1,7,5,2,90,Hizouse,11
Strasburg,1,8,3,1,92,IanT,80
Strasburg,1,8,4,2,87,CraigGlaser,78
Strasburg,1,8,5,2,95,john,27
Strasburg,1,8,6,3,85,Pet,7
Strasburg,1,9,3,2,105,jamie,23
Strasburg,1,9,4,2,86,Brian,3
Strasburg,1,10,3,1,102,jos,31
Strasburg,1,10,6,3,96,dq,8
Strasburg,2,4,5,1,86,chrisp,36
Strasburg,2,4,5,2,89,EricD,89
Strasburg,2,5,5,2,86,PraxsPop,92
Strasburg,2,5,5,2,91,geri,19
Strasburg,2,6,4,1,90,jbre,18
Strasburg,2,6,4,2,80,Tangotiger,22
Strasburg,2,6,4,2,85,mrf,28
Strasburg,2,6,4,2,92,MikeFast,62
Strasburg,2,6,5,2,90,MarcoFujimoto,53
Strasburg,2,6,6,2,93,redsauce,30
Strasburg,2,6,6,2,96,Jordan,15
Strasburg,2,6,6,3,89,MattL,87
Strasburg,2,7,4,2,87,e6,47
Strasburg,2,7,4,2,95,Will,95
Strasburg,2,7,5,3,97,evan,20
Strasburg,2,7,6,2,106,dsmok1,17
Strasburg,2,7,7,2,96,marcus,1
Strasburg,2,8,3,3,88,adam,12
Strasburg,2,8,4,3,92,redsoxtal,25
Strasburg,2,8,5,2,95,Steiner,68
Strasburg,2,8,7,2,84,Bobzilla,65
Strasburg,2,9,4,4,99,mike,29
Strasburg,2,9,5,5,87,Greg,59
Strasburg,3,5,3,0,87,cdoyle31,91
Strasburg,3,5,4,4,96,Patriot,33
Strasburg,3,5,5,2,85,dere,48
Strasburg,3,5,6,3,89,DavidMoran,41
Strasburg,3,5,7,3,94,gregg,44
Strasburg,3,6,5,3,91,Daniel,37
Strasburg,3,6,6,2,94,Ryan,67
Strasburg,3,6,7,2,97,kyle,13
Strasburg,3,7,5,2,86,jeff,24
Strasburg,3,7,5,2,94,John,4
Strasburg,3,7,6,4,94,hankp101,70
Strasburg,3,7,8,3,92,dmb,26
Strasburg,3,8,6,4,97,scottm,40
Strasburg,3,8,7,3,89,ChrisG,82
Strasburg,3,9,4,4,97,3rdperiodpoints,46
Strasburg,4,4,5,4,80,Jamesian,57
Strasburg,4,6,5,4,82,jeremy,32
Strasburg,4,6,6,3,82,ken,14
Strasburg,4,6,8,1,85,RyanJL,90
Strasburg,4,6,9,4,89,sam,9
Strasburg,4,8,6,4,98,giantsrainman,5
Strasburg,5,3,8,3,79,statzombie,38
Strasburg,5,4,7,3,92,anon,42
Strasburg,5,5,6,4,90,Xeifran,64
Strasburg,5,8,7,4,90,AndyLin,77
Strasburg,6,6,10,3,95,whateverfor,35
Strasburg,7,3,11,3,99,kg,88

Median,2,6.5,5,2,90

MarcoFujimoto is the one who is closest to the median.

Tango, the format should be listed (edited into) the blog story at the top.  I didn’t get the format correct because I didn’t read the 60 previous entries.  I think it will save you some headache to do so.
vr, Xei

Sorry for screwing up format above.

Strasburg, 0, 11, 0, 0, 117, Jacob

Strasburg,5,4,7,3,80,Mac

3 ER, 7 K, 5 H, 2 BB, 101 pitches.

2 ER, 6 K, 4 H, 2 BB, 92 Pitches

Xei: great idea.

ER, K, H, BB, and pitches.

2, 6, 4, 3, 88

Strasburg,2,6,3,1,86,Zach
ER, K, H, BB, and pitches

Sorry

Strasburg,2,6,4,3,92,East

Deadline is first pitch and is rapidly approaching with eager anticipation…

Strasburg,5,4,4,2,78,Sky

Stasburg,1,8,4,3,92,Townsend

Strasburg,0,5,3,2,90

4,4,6,2,79,Luke Gofannon

2, 5, 4, 2, 87

Strasburg,2,5,5,1,90,John

Strasburg,3,7,6,2,92,Pat Senechal

Strasburg,2,7,6,2,92, Jack R

Strasburg,3,4,7,3,94, Phil D

Strasburg,4,5,5,1,88

Entries are officially closed at 7:06 PM!  As the first batter smashes one right to the SS…

Uhhhh, Tango…

I just lost a lot of respect for Strasburg (not that I really had any before - I know nothing about him).  Seriously.  His first big league batted ball and he can’t run it out?  He would have been easily safe too.

C’mon MGL, I guarantee you the Nationals expressly told him not to run anything out.

I seriously doubt that.  Do you really think that a 22 year old professional athlete has any risk running out a ground ball?  He didn’t have to sprint to first, but he could have done more than jog.

Seriously, I thought it was pathetic.  Nick, do you think they also told him not to run hard to first base when covering on a ground ball to the first baseman?  He is way more likely to pull a hammy or collide with the runner doing that…

I dunno MGL.  I’ve heard nothing bad about Strasburg being lazy or whatever.  This is his freaking debut and the Nationals basically doubled their attendance.  I would not be surprised if the Nats told him not to do anything that might injure him.

I certainly don’t know that he is lazy or anything like that.  Some pitchers always jog to first on grounders and others don’t.  But, I just think that the least you can do on your very first big league game is run out a grounder.  The chance of him getting injured (again, I don’t expect him to sprint) by running to first is like 1 in a 1000 or less, I think.

OK who had 14 Ks?

I did, but I didn’t want to win the contest…

Congratulations to Mike, #29!  Hopefully, I’ve got that right.  An impressive performance by Strasburg…

Nick/120: yes?

***

Now that was fun.  I can’t believe how many pitches he had that close to the strike zone.  Just a beautiful effortless performance.

I don’t have a problem with Strasburg not running, but that’s mostly because I’m an AL Rules type-of-guy and would prefer he not bat…

I also prefer the DH, but that has nothing to do with him not running.  What possible reason is there to not run out a ball that is not hit directly at a fielder, which that ball wasn’t?  There is no more reason for him not to run than a high-priced position player.  They both have a chance to get injured.  How about the pitcher just stand 5 feet away from the plate when he bats and he can just strike out every time?  There is more of a chance that he gets hit while batting then he gets hurt running down to first base.  I am dumbfounded that anyone would think it is OK for a pitcher to jog down to first base when he hits a grounder that is not right at a fielder.  Again, what possible defense is there for that that doesn’t apply to everyone else and in any case, in just playing the game and trying to win, you risk injury.

For the same reason Pedro had his own rules in Boston.

I was also upset he didn’t even try to run on his hit, but afterwards similarly assumed they told him not to run it out.

My assumption was not because he was likely to get hurt running to first (although I could easily envision him pulling something) but because management didn’t then want him running the bases, avoiding pickoffs, potentially sliding and the like.

Just as we were one imperfect game away from getting instant replay, we are one Strasburg running-the-bases injury away from getting a uniform DH rule.

By the way, has the lamestream (*) media even asked Strasburg about the non-running play?

I mean, I could do the fawning over his stuff by myself.  I don’t need the media to do it for me.  What I need the media to do is the stuff I can’t do: ask Strasburg what he was thinking when he hit that ball to Cedeno’s running backhand.

(*) Damn you media for making me not only reference Palin, but also agreeing with her.

You tell your star pitcher to jog to first, because you don’t want to run the risk of pulling a hamstring.  While I’d love to see the statistics on where most injuries occur, this isn’t some obscure, very unlikely type of scenario (anecdotally I would argue that far more guys lose playing time from pulling a muscle on the sprint to first than because they got hit by a ball in the batters box).  Hamstrings take a long time to heal, and pitchers are particularly more vulnerable because of their dependence on the power from their lower legs to be effective.  Currently I note 12 guys on DL because of hamstrings, and of course countless others that are playing through minor tweaks that aren’t listed.

So what is the opportunity cost of not having Stasburg go 100% down the line.  How many IFH do we think he’s going to get.  Currently, fangraphs shows all MLB pitchers have accounted for 33 IFH for the 2010 season.  In 2009, only 53 pitchers accounted for a total of 65 IFH.  Doing some quick excel work on the 2009 data, 1.3% of pitchers AB’s were IFH, and 2.9% of their GBs went as IFH.  Considering most SP over an entire season get around 60 total ABs, your looking at less than 1 IFH a season for a SP.

So I don’t know if he was told not to go 100% down to first base on grounders.  But if he was, I’ve got no problem with the mindset.  This is a player that will probably sell an extra 10000 to 20000 tickets everytime he pitches in Washington.  (Nationals average attendage 22229, Tuesday night 40315).  What other player in MLB will bring that type of return this year.

Factor in also his (probable) unfamiliarity with the field at Nats Park.  I’m OK with him taking it easy out of the box until he’s had a few tries doing it in DC…

It would be faster for you to just ditto what I just said, rather than try to justify his actions:

“For the same reason Pedro had his own rules in Boston. “

Or if you want, you can say:
“The ends justifies the means.”

That’s it.  That’s all you have to say.

"I’m OK with him taking it easy out of the box until he’s had a few tries doing it in DC… “

Dude, I don’t believe you just said that.  First, I’d like to see rookie pitchers around MLB do that, and you hold the same position.

And, I believe that in August, if put in the same position, he will do the exact same thing.

Please, stop it!  Strasburg has the Strasburg Rules, and everyone else is going to kiss his butt because we can’t believe what we are seeing with this guy.

Pedro got special rules, and Strasburg has special rules.

Just admit it: we all want special rules for special players.  If Pedro wants to sleep in a different hotel on the road (I don’t know that he did), well, we let him.

Primadonnas.  I know it makes us a bit sick to admit we support primadonnas, but we do, and we will.

Suppose he got shelled his first time out… would everyone be so forgiving of his walk to 1B?

It reminds me of the ungrateful Redsox fans who let Pedro do whatever, but the second he was of no more use to them, the fans were all over him.

Again, how would that not apply to Wieters, Heyward, Michael Stanton, or any other star player, pitcher or position player?

I don’t know of course, but I doubt that the words:

“Don’t run to first - make sure you only jog (remember, I did not suggest he sprint to first - and I did not suggest he do anything differently on a routine play), even if you see a chance for a hit,” has ever been uttered to a player on a major league field.  That is so antithetical to the game, I can’t believe that it is being suggested.

We are not talking about “entertainment” like a movie.  Strasburg is a great commodity ultimately because he increases the chances of the Nats winning games and eventually making it into the playoffs.  That occasionally includes getting on base or executing a good bunt. Should they also tell him not to bunt because the ball might hit his hand on the bat (I would think that is more of a risk than a 22 year old injuring a hamstring running to first)?

And if you want to talk about entertaining the fans and putting fannies in the seats, I was not the only one who was irked at him jogging down to first.  There will be some percentage of Nats fans who will think that he is a primadonna or that he might cost them a game every now and then with that kind of behavior.  What if the Nats had lost that game 2-1?

I agree with Tango about the media.  How can they not ask him about that ground ball and whether the Nats had told him not to run hard down to first?  To me, that is about the only really interesting question you can ask him after the game.  Every other question is going to be banal and obvious.

And sorry, Greg, the idea that he not run hard because he is not familiar with the base path from home to first is, well…

I disagree that there are any Strasburg rules, or at least that the baserunning play last night was part of the rules. 

I think it’s solely a matter of the fact that it was his debut - the National’s attendance for that game basically doubled, and they didn’t want to risk even the tiniest chance of injury for a non-pitching act.  I don’t think that Strasburg will have special baserunning or hitting rules in the long run (although I do think he’ll have pitch count rules for sure).