THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Frank Thomas iw a great comp to Thome. Thomas has the league MVP and slightly higher career WAR. Both played the same positions (DH and 1B). I bet Thome will probably get more votes.

"Apply critical thinking even to things that are as meaningless as this.”

Best. Line. Ever. Bravissimo, Tango.

I just spent some time working up a list of the greatest first baseman of all time (non-active) for a kid’s book I’m working on and damned if Jeff Bagwell didn’t land solidly at #3 on that list (though I think without WWII getting in the way Johnny Mize would have edged him out). Until I started working on the project Bagwell was just another random slugging first baseman, but man that guy was a BEAST. He needs to be into the HOF like right now.

My critical thinking is wondering why you tossed 3 seasons from Thome, rather than just comparing one career to another.  You obviously made a decision to do so, so why?

The beautiful thing about Bagwell is that he never had a bad season until his abbreviated last season.  How the heck Kirby Puckett got in but Bagwell didn’t is a huge blemish on the BBWAA.

Bagwell will go.  Might be this year.  Fear not.

Why Thome v Bagwell?  I was kind of glad to see Thome get 600 because I was hearing some “he just doesn’t feel like a HOFer” b.s. from the screaming heads.

Are we really worried about Bagwell not making the HOF in the very near future? The only thing that might hold him back is the glut of talent coming up, but I don’t see a way he doesn’t get in before Thome. As for Thomas, the feel I get is he’s a slam dunk, maybe even a 1st ballot guy. Until last night I was worried that Thome might not even make it at all! So by Thome getting his 600th HR, he makes sure a guy who deserves to be in the HOF gets into the HOF. IMO, 600 HR is doing its job.

Since both Jeff Bagwell and Frank Thomas have been mentioned, I’d like to point out that both were right-handed hitting 1st basemen born on the same day of the same year, and both won their respective league MVPs in 1994.  Not that this matters, but it’s just one of many curiosities one finds when one is looking hard enough…

I thought the issue with Bagwell and the HoF had to do with suspicion of PED use, not whether he was a HoF caliber player.

It’s those damn steroid rumors. Since there’s never been a formal accusation or a failed drug test, it’s just irritating. I can see Palmeiro (who failed a drug test, and is a bit of a jerk and more borderline) or Bonds (who is a bit of a jerk and in legal trouble over this, but is legitimately one of the ten best players ever) or Clemens (see Bonds), but Bagwell never blew a drug test or was on the Mitchell Report. (No, I’m not saying I agree with the steroid exclusion of anyone, but in their cases, there’s legitimate reasons to use it if you think it should exclude.)

Did he piss off someone or something?

Puckett got in just before the PED outrage got underway. And people just loved the guy and probably felt sorry for him because his career ended early.
Bagwell became eligible after a lot of writers adopted the “Everyone is guilty until proven innocent” point of view.
I think cooler heads will prevail and Bagwell will get the votes.

"suspicion of PED use”

How is “suspicion of PED use” in your sentence any different than “pure making sh!t up of PED use”?

The word “suspicion” evokes some sort of foundation for belief, however improbable.  “Pure making sh!t up” allows the reader to completely ignore anything that follows it.

So, call a spade a spade, and the BBWAA completely made up sh!t about reasons to withhold their vote on Bagwell.  And yes, “guilty until proven innocent” exactly describes The Holy Writers… and The Inquisitors.

Nice writeup on Thome v Bagwell:

http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2011/8/16/2365367/jim-thome-jeff-bagwell-and-the-hall-of-fame

Charles/10, I actually get the opposite feel WRT Bagwell. He seems to be getting a free pass on steroids. The real “issues” that are “holding him back” are;

1) He didn’t have that hook to get him in on the first ballot. 600 HR, 3000 H, 2000 RBI, WS heroics...etc.

2) His career ended abruptly. Another 1500 PA of league average batting would have helped him on the early ballots and might have gotten him the semi-hook of 500 HR.

3) The glut of talent that’s about to come on. As it has played out, Bagwell would normally be expected to go in on his third ballot. Unfortunately for him, that ballot includes Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Mike Piazza, Craig Biggo, Sammy Sosa, Curt Schilling, and Kenny Lofton. That’s two of the GOAT, four sure fire HOFers, three more that have very strong cases, plus a slew of quality players beyond those guys with no shot but will get plenty of recognition votes. Then the next year you’re talking Maddux, Thomas, Kent, and Mussina. Then the year after that The Unit, Pedro, Smoltz, and Sheffield. That’s a lot of freaking talent over a three year period.

The thing in Bagwell’s favor is, he compares favorably to most of those players. Even with that glut of talent, I’d say he’s more likely to go in by his fourth ballot than not. Without the glut, he’s in on #3 at the latest.

Here’s the first ballot vote percentage going back to McGwire in 2007;

Ripken, 2007, 98.5
Gwynn, 2007, 97.6
Rickey, 2009, 94.8
Alomar, 2010, 73.7
Larkin, 2010, 51.6
Bagwell, 2011, 41.7
Edgar, 2010, 36.2
Raines, 2008, 24.3
McGwire, 2007, 23.5
McGriff, 2010, 21.5
Walker, 2011, 20.3

do we know Bagwell’s 42% was about PEDs?  I get the sense the voters are just confused about the HR totals from that era and haven’t quite figured out how to think about guys like Bagwell relative to the Harmon Killebrews and Willie McCoveys.

#16—if it’s not about PEDs, then what other reason is there?  Virtually the same voters elected Jim Rice, who cannot hold a candle to Bagwell.

Pierre: The Holy Writers are as confused as the Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer. Except, they’ve got no big insightful finish to win the case.

Stop trying to find a rational reason for The Holy Writers’ attitude toward Jeff Bagwell.  You’ll either embarrass yourself or them.

OK. Sorry.  I’ll try to get with the program.

This classic sums it up nicely:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ltD21rYWVw

Jim Rice squeaked in on his 15th ballot, so the comparison to Bagwell is not really fair. Bagwell should be compared to other first ballot guys from his era. When looking at it from that frame, it gives #16 a little credibility. Bagwell looks just fine compared to the other 90s era sluggers (Edgar, McGwire, Walker, Palmiero).

But, but Tango… you’re obviously forgetting that Thome drove in more RBI’s.

We’re forgetting that the MSM and BBWA doesn’t view walks and wOBA like the sabermetric community does.

Bagwell is a guy who would benefit from “trading some walks for hits” (as Poz? Tango? wrote about Raines some time ago), to get his career BA over .300 while still having a HoF OBP.

Poz wrote that.