THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Friday, June 16, 2006

Fielding Positional Adjustments, Part 2

Using even more UZR data, from 2000-2005, trying to come up with the best positional adjustments, for fielding.

Continuing the work I did last week, but this time using even more data (2000-2005), let’s see if we can come up with better adjustments for fielding.

As usual, we start our focus on the OF.  The LF/RF adjustment is essentially zero.  You have an 8-run gap between the average CF and the average LF/RF.  (The experience factor is about 4 runs, so if you move a guy off his primary position, expect a drop of a 4-run performance.)

This time, let’s compare each IF, separately, to the OF, as a group.  Among guys who play SS as much as they play the OF, we can see that the average SS is about 5 runs above the average OF.  Next is the 2B, which is about even with the average OF.  3B is about 4 runs below the average OF.  (The experience factor is about 8 runs.)

Overall, we can see how the average IF and OF is around the same.

1B is about 9 runs below the average OF.

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Looking at it from an infield-only perspective, the 2B/SS gap is 3 runs (and a 4-run experience factor).  The 3B/SS gap is also around 3 runs (but an 8-run experience factor).  This suggests that it’s easier to maintain the value of a player moving between 2B/SS than 3B/SS.  Finally, the 2B/3B gap is also around 3 runs, in favor of the 2B (with a 7-run experience factor).

It’s interesting that when we take the IF completely out of his element, and put him in the OF, that the average SS holds his value much better than the 2B who holds it much better than the 3B.  This is probably due to speed being a central element of an OF, which is muted when at 3B.

This analysis gives us this spectrum:
+2 SS
0 2B
-2 3B

It’s still the same as when we saw it from the OF perspective, except it’s much tighter.

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The 1B is about 9 runs behind either IF or OF.

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At this point, we can see how it’s a bit tough to make the adjustments.  We can clearly see how if we put a SS out in the OF, he’ll shine brighter than a 2B would.  The range between SS/2B/3B in the OF was +5, 0, -4.  But, in the infield, it’s the same order, but at +2, 0, -2.  It seems that you can really leverage speed out there in the OF, or have it exposed.  It seems that if you want to make a fair comparison, you need to double all your IF fielding values, so that they are in the same plane as the OF. 

So, if you have say Beltran with a +25 as a CF, he becomes +30 relative to all OF, but then +15 relative to all IF.  Alternatively, if Adam Everett is +13 as a SS, he’s +15 compared to all IF, and +30 compared to all OF.  Beltran’s +25 as a CF is equivalent, under this process, as Everett’s +13.  This is in terms of their “true talents”.

Because we can leverage a player’s skill much more in the OF, then you should consider playing as many of your good fielders out there.

I personally still don’t like everything this research is showing me, so there’s still lots more work to do.  Specifically, I’m going to have to link the UZR data to the Fans’ Scouting Report data.  Then, we’ll have some fun.