THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Jeremy Wariner has the 3rd fastest 400m time in history.

The 100m is the test, because it is pure explosive speed.

I presume if you show me the 400m in segments of 10m, I’m either going to see a drop somewhere, or I’m going to see that the 10m segments are slower in the 400m than the 100m.

I think some white guy broke the 4 minute mile (1600m).

So I don’t think it’s in the spirit of the issue here.

On the other hand, thanks for giving us something new!

This man
http://www.sports-reference.com/olympics/athletes/mo/bobby-joe-morrow-1.html
was probably the best white sprinter relative to his time. An interesting note: they ran the 100 meter final at his Olympics into a very strong wind. I would point out that this is 20 yrs after Jesse Owens. The first Olympics I remember were the ‘72 Olympics and Valeri Borzov won the 100m in 10.1. The Americans missed the final in a scheduling flap- he would have probaly won anyway.

the great white hype was a pretty good movie. early samuel L.

mr roper mr roper!

the 100M is the most pure sprint, but it’s doesnt apply to pretty much any other sport. its too long and the technique for running a 100m could not be used to steal a base or return a punt or run down the court for a fast break. not to take anything away from the sprinters but if usain bolt played baseball he might not be considered the fastest guy.

#4 I disagree. “the 100M is the most pure sprint, but it’s doesnt apply to pretty much any other sport. its too long and the technique for running a 100m could not be used to steal a base or return a punt or run down the court for a fast break. not to take anything away from the sprinters but if usain bolt played baseball he might not be considered the fastest guy.” You would have a pretty hard time proving that one. There are countless examples to the contrary. Alot of football stars were baseball stars were track stars. The speed and quickness skills are transferrable. As a matter of fact, from observation, your fastest skaters are also fast runners.

#5, right, and im not saying the fastest 100M sprinters are going to all of the sudden become slow if they play other sports. deon sanders was fast in baseball, football and track and anything else he was going to do. but even if he was the fastest guy in baseball, he was never going to win the 100m gold medal, just as the 100m gold winner may be the fastest running the bases.

i probably shouldnt have said ‘dpesn’t apply’, since speed is universal.

Can’t we time how fast these players are? I’ve gotten out the stop watch on occasion and watched as many videos as possible to see how quickly certain batters get to 3rd on a triple right after contact is made. You have to find the right videos. A standup triple does you no good, but it seems almost all triples get a highlight video these days. That won’t necessarily tell us who is the fastest sprinter.

By the end of a 100m, even a world class sprinter is slowing down. Even those who look like they burst forward at 70m or so are simply slowing less than others.

Yet shorter races (50/60m are commonly raced indoors) are more about who has better acceleration than who is “faster” (if by faster you mean who has the highest top speed).

Alan Wells of Scotland was the last “white guy” to win the Olympic 100m (in the 1984 Moscow games, which the U.S. and many other nations boycotted).

It’s also worth noting that for most of the past 50 years, the 200m world record was less than twice the 100m record, because it does take time to accelerate to top speed, Well trained elite sprinters can maintain close to top speed for 200m. A case in point was former 200m WR holder Michael Johnson, who ran 19.32 over 200 but never broke 10.00 for 100m.

If you’re considering peak speed, top 200m runners belong in the conversation, so I’d also mention Italy’s Pietro Mennea, the last “white guy” to hold a sprint WR (the 200m record, until Michael Johnson broke it in 1996) and Greece’s Konstantinos Kenteris, who won the 2000 Olympic 200m, but later failed a drug test and did not defend his title in 2004, despite the Olympics being in his home country.

Geoff:

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/ode_to_the_triple/#30

Usain’s interval time peaked at the 50-80m mark, at 0.82 seconds per 10m.

From 80m-90m, he was at 0.83, which is barely a drop.

And we know he slowed down in his last 10, and even so, he was at 0.90.

Seems to me that a sprinter reaches his peak speed at the 50m mark, and can maintain that level for at least 40m, if not 50m.

Some of you might find this link interesting:
/22/usain-bolt-100m-10-meter-splits-and-speed-endurance/

It shows 10m splits in 7 different WR 100m races, including Ben Johnson, Maurice Greene, Carl Lewis, and Usain Bolt.

These guys typically are fastest between 50-70m.

For stealing bases, top end speed is irrelevant, since you won’t reach it in any event. After you account for a lead (maybe 2m), it’s only 25m from first to second, so acceleration matters more.

Correcting my link:
http://speedendurance.com/2008/08/22/usain-bolt-100m-10-meter-splits-and-speed-endurance/

That indeed had Bolt’s splits in his first WR.

So Bolt maintaining speed through 90m is indeed unusual compared to other WR races.

Tom - Thanks for the other link. Quite an interesting thread!

I’d add that while Bolt essentially did maintain speed through 100m (remember that in his Olympic win he slowed considerably before the finish in celebration), that is anomalous. Most 100m sprinters are indeed slowing markedly well before the finish line.

Ben Johnson also slowed down.  Your link is blocked at the office, so I can’t comment on whatever you are trying to show.

I’d like to see the segment times where the finish time for the top two runners were both under 10 seconds, and were within .05 of each other (half a metre difference).

#11 - thats a great link, thanks, and it also illustrates what i was trying to say far better than what i said. ie any olympian 100M sprinter would be fast in anything they do, but the skill to winning is hitting your top speed and then maintaining it or possessing superior speed endurance. speed endurance is not necessary for any major pro sport. the only time i can think of it occurring is football break aways of over 40 yards, but even then there are other techniques, like stutter steps, stiff arms and changing directions, that come into play. too bad they haven’t added suicide sprints or shuttle runs to the olympics. be way more exciting than most of the long distance races, to me anyway.

Tom - The link I had did list both Ben Johnson and Carl Lewis from the 1988 Seoul race. Johnson won setting a brief WR, but Lewis’s time also beat the old WR. Johnson won by 0.13.

     B. Johnson C. Lewis   
RT       0.132    0.136      
 0-10m   1.83     1.89       
10-20m   1.04     1.07       
20-30m   0.93     0.94       
30-40m   0.86     0.89       
40-50m   0.84     0.86       
50-60m   0.83     0.83       
60-70m   0.85     0.85       
70-80m   0.85     0.85       
80-90m   0.87     0.86       
90-100m  0.90     0.88       
Time     9.79     9.92  

In looking for a close race, I thought of the 1991 World Championships, where Carl Lewis beat Leroy Burrell 9.86 to 9.88, both times under the previous WR, with Dennis Mitchell 3rd in 9.91. That was also the first time 6 men broke 10.00 in the same race. I found 10m splits for that (and some other major races in the ‘90s) here:
http://myweb.lmu.edu/jmureika/track/splits/splits.html

       C. Lewis  L. Burrell D. Mitchell
RT       0.140     0.120      0.090
 0-10m   1.88      1.83       1.80     
10-20m   1.08      1.06       1.07     
20-30m   0.92      0.90       0.93     
30-40m   0.89      0.89       0.88     
40-50m   0.84      0.87       0.87     
50-60m   0.85      0.86       0.87     
60-70m   0.84      0.87       0.86     
70-80m   0.83      0.84       0.86     
80-90m   0.87      0.89       0.87     
90-100m  0.86      0.87       0.90     
Time     9.86      9.88       9.91     

In this race Lewis had a clear but small lead, and they all were pushing hard through the finish, so the slowing is not simply exuberance or celebration. Lewis and Burrell actually ran faster from 90-100m than they did from 80-90m, as Lewis’s faster top-end speed allowed him to overcome a slower acceleration phase than Burrell.

The ‘97 and ‘99 World Championship finals are also at the second link, with Maurice Greene winning both by less than 0.05, but running well under 10.00. Greene’s last 10m was .03 and .02 slower than his fastest in those races, while his chasers slowed more.

In your last chart, I’m not sure what to make of it.  I wouldn’t conclude anything about topping off at some point.

As for Ben Johnson, he slowed down like Usain did.  And Carl Lewis also slowed down, in disbelief as Ben Johnson beat him soundly.  So, let’s ignore that one.

I like your last chart though.  Was that the race that Christie false started twice, the second time because he was “too fast for a human”, even though he actually started, physically, after the gun?

Linford Christie placed 4th in the 1991 Tokyo race in a then European record 9.92, with Namibia’s Frankie Fredericks 5th in 9.95, and Jamaica’s Raymond Stewart 6th in 9.96:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_World_Championships_in_Athletics_–_Men’s_100_metres

Christie false-started in the 1996 Olympic final, won by Canadian Donovan Bailey in 9.84 by 0.05 over Fredericks. I couldn’t find 10m splits for that race, unfortunately.

Unlike most top sprinters, Bolt began his professional career running the 200m and moved down to the 100, and he’s also quite tall for a sprinter. It’s possible that he’s better able to maintain his top speed than most other world class sprinters in part from that background.