THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Nonpitchers, min $10 (n=162):

$ Prim nameLast nameFirst
42 SS Ramirez Hanley
40 SS Reyes Jose
39 3B Rodriguez Alex
37 3B Wright David
35 LF Holliday Matt
35 SS Rollins Jimmy
33 3B Cabrera Miguel
33 1B Pujols Albert
31 LF Crawford Carl
30 RF Guerrero Vladimir
30 SS Jeter Derek
30 2B Utley Chase
29 CF Suzuki Ichiro
28 CF Sizemore Grady
27 2B Phillips Brandon
27 1B Ortiz David
27 RF Ordonez Magglio
27 2B Roberts Brian
27 3B Braun Ryan
26 3B Jones Chipper
26 LF Soriano Alfonso
26 1B Howard Ryan
25 RF Abreu Bobby
25 CF Beltran Carlos
25 SS Guillen Carlos
25 SS Young Michael
25 2B Cano Robinson
25 LF Lee Carlos
24 3B Atkins Garrett
24 RF Rios Alexis
24 RF Markakis Nick
24 CF Pierre Juan
23 3B Figgins Chone
23 CF Hunter Torii
23 C Martin Russell
23 3B Ramirez Aramis
23 SS Furcal Rafael
22 1B Fielder Prince
22 SS Tejada Miguel
22 SS Tulowitzki Troy
21 1B Berkman Lance
21 CF Granderson Curtis
21 3B Zimmerman Ryan
21 C Martinez Victor
21 SS Cabrera Orlando
21 RF Francoeur Jeff
21 1B Lee Derrek
20 CF Upton B.J.
20 LF Byrnes Eric
20 RF Hart Corey
20 C McCann Brian
20 1B Hafner Travis
20 1B Teixeira Mark
19 CF Damon Johnny
19 2B Kinsler Ian
19 LF Ramirez Manny
19 RF Dye Jermaine
19 2B Uggla Dan
19 SS Lopez Felipe
19 1B Morneau Justin
19 SS Renteria Edgar
19 C Mauer Joe
19 2B Polanco Placido
18 C Posada Jorge
18 LF Bay Jason
18 LF Dunn Adam
18 RF Hawpe Brad
18 CF Jones Andruw
18 SS Lugo Julio
17 CF Rowand Aaron
17 2B Sanchez Freddy
17 CF Wells Vernon
17 3B Beltre Adrian
17 SS Peralta Jhonny
17 1B Gonzalez Adrian
17 CF Pence Hunter
16 1B Konerko Paul
16 LF Matsui Hideki
16 RF Young Delmon
16 3B Lowell Mike
16 SS Theriot Ryan
16 CF Lofton Kenny
16 2B Kent Jeff
16 RF Griffey Ken
15 RF Victorino Shane
15 CF Young Chris
15 1B Helton Todd
15 RF Cuddyer Michael
15 3B Encarnacion Edwin
15 LF Ibanez Raul
15 2B Hill Aaron
15 1B Pena Carlos
15 2B Weeks Rickie
15 SS Hardy J.J.
15 CF Patterson Corey
15 CF Cameron Mike
15 SS Greene Khalil
15 2B Castillo Luis
15 RF Winn Randy
15 RF Teahen Mark
15 CF Crisp Coco
14 SS Betancourt Yuniesky
14 1B Sheffield Gary
14 2B Hudson Orlando
14 CF Matthews Gary
14 2B Ellis Mark
14 CF Hall Bill
14 RF Kemp Matt
14 2B Pedroia Dustin
14 3B Wigginton Ty
14 CF Taveras Willy
14 2B Johnson Kelly
14 CF Swisher Nick
14 RF Guillen Jose
13 CF Cabrera Melky
13 RF Kearns Austin
13 LF Burrell Pat
13 2B DeRosa Mark
13 2B Iguchi Tadahito
13 1B Delgado Carlos
13 1B Thome Jim
13 SS Bartlett Jason
12 3B Glaus Troy
12 LF Willingham Josh
12 RF Drew J.D.
12 SS Harris Brendan
12 CF Roberts Dave
12 C Johjima Kenji
12 CF DeJesus David
12 1B LaRoche Adam
12 RF Ethier Andre
12 2B Matsui Kazuo
12 1B Thomas Frank
12 3B Mora Melvin
12 SS Escobar Yunel
11 3B Blake Casey
11 C Rodriguez Ivan
11 CF Jones Jacque
11 C Molina Bengie
11 LF Duncan Chris
11 2B Kendrick Howie
11 SS Drew Stephen
11 LF Alou Moises
11 2B Durham Ray
11 RF Hermida Jeremy
11 2B Barfield Josh
11 LF Bonds Barry
11 3B Rolen Scott
10 2B Belliard Ron
10 3B Reynolds Mark
10 1B Loney James
10 SS Eckstein David
10 1B Youkilis Kevin
10 2B Lopez Jose
10 RF Nady Xavier
10 3B Kouzmanoff Kevin
10 C Paulino Ronny
10 LF Willits Reggie
10 2B Grudzielanek Mark
10 SS Keppinger Jeff
10 C Hernandez Ramon
10 3B Izturis Maicer

Pitchers, min $10 (n=69):

$ nameLast nameFirst
36 Santana Johan
34 Peavy Jake
29 Sabathia C.C.
28 Webb Brandon
24 Halladay Roy
23 Beckett Josh
23 Hamels Cole
23 Lackey John
23 Harang Aaron
22 Young Chris
22 Haren Danny
22 Zambrano Carlos
21 Bedard Erik
21 Smoltz John
21 Verlander Justin
20 Oswalt Roy
20 Cain Matt
20 Nathan Joe
19 Kazmir Scott
19 Putz J.J.
18 Escobar Kelvim
18 Rodriguez Francisco
18 Vazquez Javier
18 Hernandez Felix
18 Shields James
17 Maine John
17 Papelbon Jonathan
17 Saito Takashi
17 Weaver Jered
16 Carmona Fausto
16 Hill Rich
16 Wang Chien-Ming
16 Lilly Ted
16 Burnett A.J.
15 Sheets Ben
15 Penny Brad
14 Wagner Billy
14 Rivera Mariano
14 Hoffman Trevor
14 Cordero Chad
14 Jenks Bobby
14 Lowe Derek
14 Blanton Joe
13 Hudson Tim
13 Cordero Francisco
12 Street Huston
12 Matsuzaka Daisuke
12 Bonderman Jeremy
12 Lincecum Tim
12 Arroyo Bronson
11 Zito Barry
11 Wainwright Adam
11 Gallardo Yovani
11 Valverde Jose
11 Isringhausen Jason
11 Bannister Brian
11 Billingsley Chad
11 Francis Jeff
11 Capps Matt
11 Garland Jon
10 Snell Ian
10 Pettitte Andy
10 Clemens Roger
10 James Chuck
10 Buehrle Mark
10 Maddux Greg
10 Betancourt Rafael
10 Bush David
10 McGowan Dustin

Nonpitchers ended up with 69% of the salaries.

***

Breakdown by average at each position:
SS $13
CF $12
3B $11
RF $11
2B $10
1B $10
LF $9
P $8
C $7

The overall average is exactly $10 (I set the roster at 2 players per position, plus 10 pitchers, for a total of 26 players; presumed 21 fantasy teams).

Sad to say but I’ll take the under on Escobar.

How are these calculated? Is this for 5x5 scoring?

And how are you reaching your pitching/hitting breakdown? Where is 69% coming from?

Thanks.

Same as last year:
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/the_worth_of_sb_hr_and_all_other_categories_in_fantasy_baseball/#60

The 69% is a byproduct, not a driver to the process.

What projections are you using? How can Brian Bannister be worth $1 more than McGowan?! And Roger Clemens is worth $10?

The Marcels.

Marcel is great for the rate stats, and not as good for depth chart (playing time).  And in Fantasy dollar evaluations, knowing the playing time is half the battle.

Anyone who has played MLB since 2005 is in the forecast.

So, that explains Clemens.

As for Bannister, McGowan: they are both forecasted for roughly the same number of innings, wins.  Bannister and advantage in ERA and McGowan in K.

I repeat: Marcel is excellent in forecasting rate stats, but is limited in guys with limited MLB playing time, as it intentionally ignores all minor league stats. 

You can read more here:
http://tangotiger.net/marcel/

REGARDLESS, I have given the EXACT formula I use, it’s completely logical, and I urge you to use that formula, and create your own fantasy dollars.  Post your results, and I will link to them.

REQUEST: Anyone who has used my QALPAP process, please send me or post your Fantasy $ evaluations, as such:

playerID, $

The playerID should be from Lahman or Retrosheet.  My guess is that it will be as good as Shandler, PECOTA, et al.  Why is that?  There are three parts to a good forecasting system:

1. Rate stats: Marcel is as good as any of them, and hopefully, you guys used Marcel for the veterans, and added your own for the rookies

2. Playing time: you guys know more than most, since you are in-depth involved with who is playing and not.  Marcel knows a bit, but not enough.  You might know a bit less than Shandler et al.

3. Proper evaluations of each category: QALPAP is da man.