THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Wow.  This is very cool.  Not quite sure how it differs from the RotoTimes rater but I’m off to investigate.  Including the averages and replacement level is certainly interesting.

Interesting.  I put in the same league parameters for Copeland’s system and for the RotoTimes rater (http://www.rototimes.com/mlb/player_rater_roto.php) and while the results are similar, they’re not exactly the same.  This is a common occurrence among different player raters.  It doesn’t seem like there is an agreed upon method for valuing players.  One thing the rototimes rater does(and the one developed over at Razzball) is break down a player’s value by category, which I find interesting and useful.  It also gives you some insight into how the system operates.

So statistically, how do you go about weighting different variables of different units and scales?  Tom, in the entry above you describe a system you recommended here.  Where can I find that entry?

I could tell that I had been linked to by Tom when the requests to add OPS as a category started coming in. (For those who are wondering, it should be available this weekend.)

@Nick: I tested out my system by drafting a league where each team used the rankings from a different player valuation system (RotoTimes, RazzBall, etc.) When I figured out the final standings for the league, the Price Guide always finished out on top.  (If you want to see the details, I’ll post the full results next week.)

Please let me know if anybody has any suggestions.

@Nick: You can see the original discussion here:

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/the_worth_of_sb_hr_and_all_other_categories_in_fantasy_baseball/

For anyone who is interested in seeing some extra details (like Nick mentioned), there is a way to see some extra stuff:  When you generate values, go the address bar and add “&debug=Y” to the end of the URL.  That will show you each player’s standard score in the individual categories, as well as details about each iteration.

I don’t think a team that drafted by dollar rankings would necesarily do all that well.  For example, dollar rankings (or value rankings) change as the draft goes on, due to inflation and player scarcity.  Try using This Draft Software, to draft a team.
vr, Xei

Just a note: I’ve got OPS up as a hitting category for those who wanted to use it.

In the other thread, Tom had suggested using this formula for xOPS:

xOPS = PA * (OPS - lgOPS)

I assume he’s using PA, even though SLG has AB as the denominator, because the result should be close enough.  I tried this instead:

xOPS = (PA + AB) * (OPS - lgOPS)

It gives similar results as the other formula.  Does that look correct?

@Xiefrank:  As I understand it, the price guide is intended to measure the value of a given set of stats in a league, not necessarily the hard values you’d use to draft (correct me if I’m wrong, Mays). Simulating a league using those dollar values is just a way of checking if the system is accurate, I believe.

That said, I’d be very interested in playing around with your draft software.  Alas, I am in Mac land here, and can’t run an .exe file.  You don’t happen to have your program available as a .dmg, do you?

Nick, good points.  I was referring to #3 where pricing systems were rated by how well they drafted based on drafting the highest valued (by dollars) player.

The draft software is only available for Windows.

vr, Xei

Xeifrank, in your system, when a player is bought for exactly his projected dollar value, will the values of the other players change?

If a high-steals player is bought for $1, how does that change the value of the remaining steals?  Do you note that there are much fewer steals left to buy, but still a lot of money, and thus inflate the cost of steals?  Well, inflate the cost of steals more than you inflate the cost of the other categories?

You guys, and anyone else, are invited to participate in the Forecasters Challenge 2009:

http://tangotiger.net/forecast/

I thought I had to have my own projection system to enter, no?  Or do I just need to have a ranked set of players?

Nick I was wondering this too, my friend and I thought about sending in our list of players which we just generate off our own “who’s awesome” list. Would be interesting to see how they do against things like PECOTA and Shandler.

Unfortunately, my own list last year was entitled, “no one’s as awesome as Billy Butler.” Didn’t work out quite like I had hoped.  I have high hopes for this year’s “Lastings is God” list.

Though the latest out of DC is that he’ll be competing with Elijah Dukes for the starting CF job.  Austin Kearns and Josh Willingham, however, have been assured of jobs, thank heavens.

Has to be a system that you will stand behind, that you’d stake your reputation on. 

And if you were to join a real human being draft, you would NOT need to look at any other forecasting system out there to make your picks.

Tango, have the projections from the various sites (ESPN, Sportsline, Shandler) been entered?