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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Wednesday, November 14, 2007

Failed starters as relievers

By Tangotiger, 05:48 PM

Looks like Kevin Towers and the Padres know what they are doing.  Free-agent relievers are incredibly overpaid.  You can pick out the teams that have no idea that the replacement level for pitchers as relievers is so high.  Orioles last year, and Phillies this year.  I’m always shocked when starters are released, and not given a try as a reliever.  If they were fighting for a job as the 5th starter (and basically, the 7th best pitcher on the team), doesn’t it make sense that they could fight for the #3 or #4 guy in the bullpen?


#1          (see all posts) 2007/11/15 (Thu) @ 11:32

The first thing that came to mind when I read that was, why would Towers come out and say that? Shouldn’t such things be regarded as something akin to trade secrets? I realize that this is something that other organizations also do, but even if there is only one other GM out there who decides to try something similar upon reading Towers’ remark, he’s hurting himself because it will mean another bidder for the services of a discarded starter who might be serviceable as a reliever.


#2    Guy      (see all posts) 2007/11/15 (Thu) @ 13:34

Related to this, I think one innovation in pitcher usage we may see is a 4-starter/4-days-rest rotation, in which the 5th game becomes a bullpen game (when needed because a team plays 5 consecutive days).  The 5th starter on a lot of low-budget teams is a near-replacement pitcher.  I have to think that 3-4 relievers could throw a better game on most days.

The problem becomes a stretched pen if the starter fails early on day 6. But that’s usually your ace, and a team carrying 12 pitchers should be able to handle this.


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