THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Wednesday, December 16, 2009

Expected points by down, yards to go

By Tangotiger, 07:49 AM

SWEEEEEEEEEEET. A man after my heart:

Generalizing for the 1st and 10, between the 25 yard lines, there’s a 3.13 point gap (for 50 yards), so we can say that each 16 yards is worth 1 point. On second downs, regardless of yards to go, it’s around 16.5 yards per point, give or take 1 yard. On third downs, it’s 17 yards per point, give or take 1 yard. On 4th downs, it’s 21 yards per point.

So, we can say that roughly, you gain one point for every 16-17 yards you move down the field.

• Other Sports • Football

#1 Xeifrank (see all posts) 2009/12/16 (Wed) @ 15:36

The website of the study is “blocked” for me from this computer, so I was wondering if they had any mention of adding a third or even fourth variable to the equation. Other considerations for… time left in game, score differential and or win expectancy. But this stuff is neat.
vr, Xei

#2 Tangotiger (see all posts) 2009/12/16 (Wed) @ 16:00

In order not to get into the time and score aspects, Brian looked at 1st and 3rd quarters, where teams are playing for points in a typical way.

Once you add in time/score, you get into something that will be pretty hard to show on a 2-D graph.

#3 (see all posts) 2009/12/16 (Wed) @ 22:01

This wasn’t multi-variable regression. Each data set was fit individually with a LOESS curve. Not that you couldn’t do a multi-variable regression, but you’d have to decide what terms to include.

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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Wednesday, December 16, 2009

Expected points by down, yards to go

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