from Amazon
Saturday, September 27, 2008
Every once in a while a player is so overrated…
that a smart team could really get some value for them in a trade. Sometimes it is because that player has been a one-year wonder. Sometimes it is that the player used to be good but is no longer and the teams/scouts/fans/etc. are lagging behind. Sometimes it is that a player has good or great “garbage” stats but poor “predictive” stats. Sometimes it is that a player is still considered to be a good or great prospect or have great potential, but that potential is in reality a thing of the past (or was, in fact, never there in the first place).
Between last year and this, a couple of examples from the Indians come to mind. Despite having some gaudy save totals, Borowski was one of the worst closers in baseball. Surely the Indians could have suckered a team into thinking that he had some value because of those save numbers. Instead, he got hurt and then released and Cleveland got nothing for him, of course. Paul Byrd had a nice w/l record last year and a decent ERA. Lots of teams would have loved to have his veteran presence in their rotation. As you know (from the Byrd thread on this site), I don’t think much of Paul Byrd. I think that he is near replacement level. A 37 year old pitcher who has not had a sub 4.50 ERA since 2005 and does not strike anyone out yet gives up quite a few HR I want no part of. They finally traded him after he was having an awful season (in all fairness, supposedly, at least according to him, he was tipping his pitches).
Anyway, this year there is a starting pitcher on a team in the post-season. In fact, the team is supposed to be pretty smart. Working for them is a former writer and analyst for BP. The pitcher is still pretty young and was once considered a good or even great prospect. Like most good prospects, he throws hard. This year, he has a decent ERA and a decent record. Most of the talking heads are lauding his season and saying that he has finally “turned the corner.”
The reality is that he stinks. Always has and still does. Despite throwing hard, his fastball is straight and eminently hittable. He does not know how to “pitch” very well. He walks too many people. Does not strike out enough, especially given his supposed “stuff.” And he gives up more than his fair share of HR’s. Again, bottom line is that he stinks. Near replacement level. Could he become a good pitcher? Of course he “could.” That is true of almost any young pitcher. Could he become a very good or great one? In my opinion, no. His stuff and pitching style just don’t warrant it.
Could this team get some really good value for this player, even though he is not earning much money right now? You bet! Will they? I doubt it. If you are a fan of this team, you better hope that he is not in their post-season starting rotation.
Gotta be Edwin Jackson of Tampa Bay.
181 1/3 IP, 107/76 K/BB, 22 HR, 195 H, 13-11 W-L, 4.37 ERA
4.42 RA, 4.90 FIP, 5.14 xFIP (from THT)- more in
line with his 5.21 Marcels projected ERA.
A beneficiary of TB’s improved defense (DER of .699 with Jackson on the mound).
And if I’m not mistaken, TWO former BP-ers in the office (Bloom and Click).