from Amazon
Friday, August 11, 2006
Edmonds, and the decline against lefties
This article discusses an old aging ballplayer whining about not being paid out his lottery ticket next year.
A 10 million$ contact against a 3 million$ buyout. So, do you pay him the extra 7 million$? He just has to be about 3 wins above replacement, meaning 1 win above average in full-time play. Seems like a lock, unless the injury has changed his talent level. Or…
What I’d like to know more of is on the aging pattern of players against the handedness of the pitcher. Just as a pure gut thing, I tend to believe that the same-side performance would decline faster than the opposite-side performance. Guys are getting old, so they start to adjust. We know they walk more year after year, likely the combination of wisdom and receding talent. They pick their spots, and hope. Maybe they get outmatched much faster against same-side pitching?
I don’t have a study here for you. I’m hoping someone else out there has one.
Interesting study to do. My guess would be that the two curves would be similar if not the same.
Edmonds has been one of the best players in baseball for many years now and despite his “name,” has been underrated. I would think that he would be well worth the 7 mil next year. I don’t know that you can ever “predict” a large drop-off in production for any player. I think you always have to use their weighted Marcel adjusted for age.
I have been actually lobbying to trade him for several years now despite his great production. I think that at one time, the Cardinals could have gotten a boatload of talent for him. Not anymore though. He is probably considered damaged goods.
One of the best strategies for a team is to take a highly paid great player with a great reputation and trade him for lots of good young players and prospects. Other teams tend to overvalue good and great players in relation to their contracts. For example, Jeter is montrously overpaid, yet there are probably a few teams who would love to acquire his contract AND give away lots of talent.