THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

I agree, that Dave did a good job of showing what a great hitter Martinez was. I did something similar using offensive winning percentage a couple of years ago. He had 8 seasons with a .700 OWP or higher when qualifying (and had 1 more with about 420 PAs). He was one of only 37 hitters to do that.

Here are some Hall of Famers who are behind Martinez on this list: Harry Heilmann, Rod Carew, Eddie Murray, Reggie Jackson, Wade Boggs, Harmon Killebrew, Willie McCovey, George Brett, and Willie Stargell.

I also looked at seasons with a .750 OWP or higher. A .750 OWP will usually get you in the top 5 in your league in any given year.
Martinez had 6 of them and more than all of these guys

Nap Lajoie
Billy Hamilton
Jesse Burkett
Wade Boggs
Hank Aaron
Joe Morgan
Harry Heilmann
Joe DiMaggio
Roger Connor
Willie McCovey
Willie Stargell
Johnny Mize
Frank Chance
King Kelly
Reggie Jackson

Martinez was also one of only 28 guys to have 8 or more seasons of a 150 or higher OPS+

What I don’t understand is why he isn’t being treated the way closers were a while back.  Without a doubt he was the best true DH.  Why isn’t that enough to get him in?  The fact that his GMs and Managers penciled him in year after year must mean something, no?  No one else has made a career out of what he has done.  For that alone, shouldn’t he be enshrined?

Edagr’s biggest problem, I think, isn’t the DH only and the non HOF-level counting stats.  It’s that he peaked in his mid 30s.  People remember the really good hitter of 1990, not the unholy terror of 2000.  Lou Whitaker and Dwight Evans are under-rated for the same reason.  Jim Rice is the polar opposite.

I love Edgar and, as a “medium Hall” guy, I’d put him in. But what is also working against him in a major way is the lack of playing time to accumulate the counting stats.  Only had 8 years with 600+ PA’s, only 4 years with 150 games, and wasn’t a full-time regular until 27 years old.  He probably should have been up in the majors 2 years earlier.  Those 250+ extra games would have made a difference in his HOF case for some.  (And I’m willing to give him some credit for those.)

In June, I asked people how many players they’d want in the Hall, for those born 1962-1971 (Edgar is in here).  And the consensus was 23.
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/poll_for_players_born_1962_1971_i_would_vote_in_number_of_players

(I also previously asked how many they’d want for a typical decade without looking at names, and they said 20 per 10 years.)
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/poll_for_any_ten_year_period_i_like_to_see_number_of_players_voted_in_the_h/

So, for you Edgar fans, go to the 1st link, and start putting yes and no on each player, and then tell me how many HOF you have.

And for non-Edgar fans, go to the same 1st link, and tell me how many HOF you have.

I think the MOST you can pick ahead of Edgar is 26 players.  That would mean giving more value to fielding, position, and pitchers.

I think the FEWEST you can pick ahead of Edgar is 12.

So, how you feel about Edgar is how you feel about having a small-hall (15 or fewer players per 10 years), a big-hall (30 or more per 10 years), or medium-hall (23).

Dave’s article was nice advocacy, but I didn’t like the main argument, especially since Martinez was among those at the bottom of his list with 8 qualifying seasons of >= 150 wRC+. Even if the rest of them were HOF players, drawing a cutoff, and then arguing a player belongs based on barely making the cutoff, is not an especially powerful argument.

By contrast, Cyril/1 compares Martinez not with those at or ahead of him on a ranking, but those behind him.

I find it more powerful to explain why a player is better than some already enshrined than simply to say he’s about as good as them by some metric, especially when you’re choosing the metric.

Demonstrating a candidate is better than several clear HOF players (including Aaron and DiMaggio!) is a much better argument.

Arguing that he’s just as good is ultimately a big-hall argument: if X is in, then Y, who is as good, also should get in. But arguing that X is better than Y, who clearly belongs, has traction for small-hall believers as well.

Tom, I went through your exercise and was somewhat surprised by the result.  I’ve always considered myself a “big hall” guy (and frankly, am bothered a bit that people get to define themselves as “small hall” and vote that way when consistency of voting by the standards of the actual results over the years pretty well demands a “big hall” philosophy), but I only said “yes” to 20.  Granted, that was a knee-jerk reaction without research (which if I actually HAD a vote, I would surely do) and I had 14 “maybes” and only six outright “nos” so assuming a 50/50 split on the “maybes” I’m probably in the 25-27 range...which still isn’t exactly “big hall” as you define it (30+).

Looking at the entire list, and trying to think of who I would vote for BEFORE Edgar, I checked off 14 names (as you might expect from a HUGE Edgar fan).  I think he fits regardless of whether you are a “small hall”, “medium hall,” or “big hall” guy.  And for the record, I have a hard time trying to figure out how you would rank more than, AT MOST, nineteen of these guys ahead of Edgar, but maybe that’s the fanboy in me coming out....

I ahd 19 players I would put into the HoF off that list.

Edgar would be the 20th.

This list sorta deflated my thoughts of Edgar as Hof.

Top 10 Comparables at B-Ref:

1. Will Clark (902)
2. Todd Helton (899)
3. John Olerud (885)
4. Moises Alou (879)
5. Magglio Ordonez (875)
6. Bob Johnson (863)
7. Bernie Williams (860)
8. Paul O’Neill (852)
9. Ellis Burks (850)
10. Carlos Lee (844)
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Mulkowski #4, it’s pretty hard to make any kind of reasonable case that Edgar should have been playing regularly in the Majors 2 years before he was. You could make an argument that the Mariners were a bit slow to give him regular playing time, but realistically, we’re looking at maybe half a year or so of playing time that he missed out on. Even that’s not clear-cut. And it would have come at a time when he was not near the hitter he was later on in his career, so any extra playing time you think he should have gotten wouldn’t make much change at all in his Hall of Fame chances.