THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Tango, do you think there is anything to the fact that teams and even Pedroia himself might not perceive him as a star or superstar player in the long run because of his size? Or perhaps they might think that he really has taken advantage of Fenway such that his value might not be nearly as much on another team?

I don’t think so.  He is the MVP after all.  I think it’s the case that players who have alot of fielding value (Longoria, Tulo, Pedroia, Mauer, Utley), and very few years earning money in MLB, is being fantastically discounted.

I have no doubt that Pedroia was especially targetted for his extreme willingness to play in Boston.  Epstein could have signed him to a Hanley Ramirez deal (6/70), who had the IDENTICAL service time as Pedroia when he signed his deal last off-season, and he would have been more than happy.

A star player will sometimes sign for less money so it frees up cash for re-signing his teammates or for adding a free agent. Pedroia is probably more interested in winning than he is in making an extra $30-$40 million dollars over the next 6 seasons.

BTW, if the Red Sox really wanted to maximize Pedroia’s value, they should move him to SS. I think he would be an upgrade defensively compared to Jed Lowrie.

Pedroia—just another white guy getting screwed by The Man.

terpsfan101,

I wonder about that (moving Pedroia to SS). I think it’s a bit too simplistic to assume that because he’s an outstanding 2B that he could be at least an average SS. The throws that a 2B has to make are quite short. He might not have the arm for SS or even 3B and therefore be much more valuable as a 2B in spite of the positional value of SS.

Matt

He played shortstop in the minors and a few games in the majors at the end of 2006.  Pedroia has enough arm to handle the position.

"A star player will sometimes sign for less money so it frees up cash for re-signing his teammates or for adding a free agent.”

This may be true but it really pisses me off when a player on a team with near unlimited funds does this.  It’s not like they don’t have enough of an advantage without getting cheaper players than what the Orioles and Blue Jays have access to.

The Red Sox are trading in white slavery, with Ped and Wakefield.

Wakefield isn’t exactly being forced to make something out of 40 acres and a mule.....

A 4 million dollar slave is a slave nonetheless.

I think Pedroia has 2+ years of service time. So he would have been a free agent after 4 more seasons. A 4 year deal in the $40 million dollar range would have been more appropriate.

My fixation on moving Pedroia to SS, stems from the fact that the Red Sox have gotten lousy defense from that position over the last 4 seasons. Lowrie was a defensive upgrade over Lugo and Cora. However, Lowrie’s defense is average, at best.

Let me preface this by saying that I am pro-Union (though still mindful of the way they are abused), a great fan of what Curt Flood did, and do believe that a well compensated slave is still a slave.

The way I see it (though, as always, I am open to my thoughts being incorrect):

Baseball players are not slaves.  I have always found it to be ridiculous to refer to them as such, but more so with the advent of the union.  The only limitation that pre-FA puts on them is their compensation and location in MLB.  There are many other leagues they can play in around the world, including the US.  In MLB, they are covered by a CBA.  That is freely given consent by the workers to work for the “company” under negotiated terms.  That young players are discriminated against by the bargaining is negotiable.  This is hardly a slave issue in my book.  I see it as further demeaning those that are actual slaves in this world, and has nothing to do with compensation.

That said, if free agency was available from day one, would not the dollar value of FA wins go down and require a complete re-figuring of $/win?  Maybe I am thinking backwards.

What would people think of a system like most CBAs have, where you are paid based solely on experience, job title (position), and whether full/part time?  That has always been one of the ‘fantastical’ thoughts I have had about sports.

terpsfan—Fielding Bible had Lowrie at +22 runs per 150 games, one of the best figures in MLB.  Pinto’s PMR had him at +14, 5th best out of 41 SS.  It’s a SSS but given the magnitude of the results there’s zero question he was significantly above average.  Which is what my eyes told me, too.

Lowrie played only 130 innings (not counting the playoffs) at SS last year, so it was too soon for me to make a judgment about his defense. I can’t believe that the Fielding Bible would rate him that high (+22 runs per 150 G) based on 130 innings. Is there any sort of regression applied to the +/- ratings in the Fielding Bible?

Lowrie played 390 innings at SS. Out of habit, I divided his innings total by 3, since I am used to working with BDB data.

The eyes of 90 baseball fans think Lowrie is a slightly-below average fielder:
http://tangotiger.net/scouting/scoutResults2008_BOS.html

My position is to ignore the observation of any single person, unless that person can provide a track record to weight him any more than anyone else.  With all due respect to Eric (and I would say this about me or MGL or anyone else), the case has to be made that his observation deserves more weight than the other 90 SOSHers who participated.  And even if it does, how much should he count?  Double?  10 times?  100 times each SOSHer?  Would a Redsox scout count 1000 times more than an SOSHer?

***

UZR has Lowrie as pretty high, if you look at his SS (and still high if you include his 3B).

I usually split the difference when you have limited data, with a lean toward the Fans.  (With more data, I lean more toward UZR).

I’d call him at least +0.5 wins at SS.

I’m going to disagree with my old pal Eric Van concerning Lowrie’s defensive ability. First, terp is correct when he doubts the accuracy of any defensive stat based on 390 innings (43 games). We can debate whether you need 2 or 3 full seasons of defensive stats to fully assess a player’s real value, but certainly all would agree that 1/4 of a season’s numbers are far too small to make any definitive judgements.

My eyes also tell me a different story with Lowrie that Eric’s do. I see a guy who has some footwork issues, particularly with his throws where he often does a double hop, and sometimes even a triple hop, before throwing. I also think he has some first step problems on ground balls to either side where he will occasionally take a small stutter step or two before getting going, which really hurts his range. His footwork around the bag on double plays was criticized early, but I actually thought he was pretty good there by the end of the season.

The guy has great reactions on line drives and a strong, accurate arm, but his footwork problems make me believe he is better suited for 3rd base defensively. Of course he doesn’t have the bat to play 3rd, so there you go.

Also, to rally, I do not think Dustin Pedroia has anything close to enough range to play SS in the major leagues.

According to the Fans, Pedroia has limited speed and arm strength, two things that could work against him:
http://tangotiger.net/scouting/sim2008_7631.html

His top comp is Placido Polanco (how so very apropos in terms of “character”; also former SS/3B/2B now 2B), and Iwamura (former 3B, now 2B).

If you focus on speed and arm strength, he really doesn’t have any other good comps.  I think 2B is the right position for him, and that while he would be a more than capable SS, he probably fits best at 2B.

Then again, the same thing has been said about David Eckstein in his heydey…

I agree that Pedroia fits best at second.  But if he had to play shortstop, he would not embarrass himself. I don’t think he’d be worse than average.  He’d find a way.  Pedroia has a way of making people who doubt him look like idiots.

Tango, 5 WAR seems a little high.  By B-Ref’s BtWins, he was +2.1 in 726 PAs this year.  He was +.9 in 581 last year.  With regression, that seems more like +1 to +1.5.

And is he really a +1 win fielder?  Pegging him at +.5 seems more fair.

That being said, still a great deal for the Sox.  This WILL be the next sticking point between the owners and players.

Is Btwins above avg. or replacement? I can’t imagaine how anyone could argue that Pedroia wasn’t above average with his bat this year.

Above average.

Pedroia would certainly not embarrass himself.  More egregious ones are ones like Brandon Phillips and Orlando Hudson. 

The problem is that if you are being blocked at SS (Toronto had a bunch of them at the time), then you move to somewhere else to make your mark.  And, if you are the team’s regular player, you STAY there.

If Hudson were a worse hitter, say like Pokey Reese, then he could be blocked at SS, move to 2B, and eventually move to SS or play 2B or whatever, because you are not a regular player, and you simply play wherever and whenever you can.

There is a short-term cost to moving between positions, and it’s enough that if you are not going to stay there for at least a couple of years, then you don’t do it.  These things need to be done early in a player’s career. 

For Pedroia specifically, it is probably still early enough, but once you have someone who has established himself so well, you really don’t want to upset that.

Rally,

I don’t think that Pedroia would embarrass himself at SS either, but that’s a pretty low bar. If Manny Ramirez played SS, then yes, that would be embarrassing. But Michael Young, who is really a 2B, plays a terrible SS and I never hear anyone say he embarrasses himself.

A player I know a lot more about is Mark Ellis. While his double play partner, Bobby Crosby, is probably a below average SS and Ellis is one of the best defensive 2B there is, I would never consider moving Ellis to SS. Ellis has a bad shoulder and would lose a huge amount of range because he would have to play closer to make the throws. He would also likely break down during the season since the throws are more difficult and more numerous (since a SS gets maybe twice as many balls).

Cheers,

Matt

I would say that ANY good to great fielding 2B would be AT LEAST average at SS.  That is the bar that I’m setting.  I don’t know what Rally is setting as “non-embarrass”, maybe -5 runs, but I’m setting it higher.

You look at David Eckstein, and you tell me why everything you guys are saying does not apply to him, but does apply to everyone else.  You look at this scouting report from Angels and Cards fans, and they are all the same: a bit above average, with a horrible arm strength.

UZR for Eckstein, 2003-2006: +38 in 502 games, or +12 per 162.

If it’s Eck’s “heart” and “determination”, then I think we can agree that Pedroia and Polanco qualify.

The Reds should have moved Phillips to SS long ago. Now they find themselves without a SS at all (Gonzalez still hurt and Keppinger a 3B masquerading as a SS).

I thought Phillips was always a SS until he moved up to the majors. Baseball Cube says the same. An old ESPN magazine article quoted a ML scout saying that it was a “toss-up” between Phillips and Reyes when they were still in the minors.

Tango,

I get your point. And I would say that there’s often a difference between looking good and being good. Eck’s poor arm may make him look a lot worse at SS than he is. Cust’s swing makes him look bad too, but he’s one of the top 25 hitters in the major leagues. Does Cust embarrass himself at the plate? A lot of people think so.

On the other hand, these opinions, from the scouts at least, are based on experience. The vast majority of prospects who have arms like Eck cannot play SS. The vast majority of guys who swing like Cust will never make it out of the minors. So I don’t agree that the fact that Eck can manage SS with his noodle arm proves any general principle. It may only prove that Eck has some other talent (like really fast footwork and release - I don’t know) that makes up for it.

Cust, a player I’m much more familiar with, has probably the worst hand eye coordination is MLB, but he may also have the best batting eye to go along with it. In other words, he is a extreme outlier and Eck may be one also.

Regards,

Matt

So I understand that players want insurance, and obviously risk aversion and the diminishing marginal utility of money kicks in, but this is pretty silly.  There is no need for players to rely on their own teams to insure their contracts, especially when those teams seem to give the player no upside benefits whatsoever. 

Why can’t Pedroia go to Goldman Sachs, or somebody like that, and offer to sell off, say, 25% of his earnings over the next five years for $16M (assuming the same temporal distribution as the $88M he’s expecting to make; if he gets it all at once the number is obviously less)?  I suspect, with a reasonable probability distribution over his likely talent, there is essentially no level of risk aversion that makes this deal better than something like that.

Looking at the Fan’s Scouting Report, would a player’s “Range Rating” be a combination of his Instincts + First Step + Speed? Of course, they don’t need to be weighted equally. I imagine Instincts and First Step would be slightly more important in determining a player’s range than pure speed.

How much did Dustin actually need?  Why would he even need to sell away his free agency years?

Over 10 years ago, Nomar and Vlad signed 5/23ish deals.

Is someone here suggesting that:
a. Dustin Pedroia NEEDED to give TWO free agency years, AND
b. give them those two years at something like 10MM each, AND
c. that NO inflation has occurred since the time of Nomar and Vlad

If Pedroia needed enough for insurance money, he could have easily just signed away his non-free agency years.  To tack on his free agency years was just giving money away. 

For the same reason that “hey, he doesn’t need 80MM, if he can settle for 40MM”, I will say, “hey, he doesn’t need 40MM, if he can settle for 20MM”.

I know salary inflation in baseball has risen 8-10% per year over the last 25 years, but given todays current general economic situation deflation, ( such as seen in Japan), seems to be a concern for many economists.

Could we see deflation in baseball? The strong indication in hockey is that salary cap will almost certainly drop because of sliding revenues. Baseball is better off , but is it recession proof?

Right now we’re seeing a bit of deflation, and we might see it in this free agent market too - probably not for Sabathia and Tex but the next tier of players.

But I wouldn’t count out Helicopter Ben.  If they decide a 15K stimulus check needs to be given to every American next year then we’ll see inflation - and a bunch of that will be spend at major league ballparks.

If you are in a recession, you don’t lock yourself to 6 or 7 years at a depressed price.  Like I said, if Pedroia said to Theo: “I’d like to sign for 4 years and no more… how much will you give me?”

Is Theo going to say: “Uh, there’s no price I can give you other than the minimum.  But if you tack on 2 years, I’ll give you 40”.

Seriously.  Exactly what would Theo’s offer have been?  Anything under 20 would have been a fat joke.  So, why would Pedroia have the need for 40MM and not 20MM?  20MM is his “set for life” amount.  The two free agency years, he can get anything from 0 to 70MM dollars if he waited.

And why he felt the need to give his THIRD free agency year as a team option?!?

His agent is Alan Nero, a very wealthy guy. I could see his agent trying to make some money right away if he’s trying to establish himself (nudging pedroia to sign), but that’s obviously not the case.

Tango/MGL-- I’m not sure if you guys are allowed to say, but do any agents contact you about player value? IIRC, Moneyball said something about Bill James getting requests from agents looking for help in arbitration cases.

I used b-ref’s PI to check all the middle infielders since 1900 who, like Pedroia, qualified for the batting title at age 24 and had an OPS+ for that season of between 120 and 130 (20 guys altogether).  A number of guys on the list did not turn out to be long term stars: Woody English, Jorge Orta, Johnny Hodapp, Jim Lefebvre, Carlos Baerga all never topped 120 again. Robinson Cano had a 2007 season pretty comparable to Pedroia’s 2008, but couldn’t maintain anthing close to those numbers.  Are we appropriately discounting Pedroia’s long-term future value for the possibility, not small, that he just doesn’t keep up this level of performance?  (BTW, four of the 20 guys are in the HOF—Doerr, Yount, Ripken and Cronin—Jeter will surely be, Alomar ought to someday be, and Rose certainly would be but for....)

You seem to be going on the premise that pedroia’s MVP season is now his baseline. He does only have two seasons under his belt, so maybe, last year was more of a ceiling than a ground floor. It could be just me, but I think players need a track record to warrant such projections and to command such contracts.

I am sure the Yankees had made similar projections for Cano going into last season. After all, Cano’s 2007 season was not that far off from Pedroia’s 2008. A little perspective is needed here.

No, you are not understanding how I do the baseline.  It does not presuppose that his 2008 is his actual talent level.

And, when did Longoria sign his deal? 

So, no, I don’t need a “track record”.  If Pedroia asked for 1MM a year for 10 years, would you have given it to him?  Of course you would.  If he asked for 25MM a year for 15 years, would you have given it to him?  Of course you would not.

It’s all about risk management, and a “track record” is not a requirement.  It certainly decreases the risk, but it doesn’t preclude a deal.  His “track record” warrants the deal I envisioned.

Opening up Rob Neyer from outside his “Insider” wall certainly has catapulted his stature.  When he was behind the wall, and he linked here, we’d get a few hits.  Today, he put in one link among a lost list of links, and my referral page is showing an unending list of hits from Rob’s page.

Dude can still move mountains.

I’m not sure that Bill James is doing the best thing by being behind the wall.  He could have Rob Neyer stature if he blogged for the world to see.  Ad revenue would be better than subscriber revenue.  Indeed, a James/Neyer/Poz blog would be the ultimate.  What are you guys waiting for?

I am sorry, but I don’t get how a track record doesn’t come into play? For all we know, Pedroia could end up like Baerga. Even if he reverts to his 2007 level, the contract you suggest would be obscene.

In signing this deal, both the Red Sox and Pedroia had to balance cost/salary certainity with projected future performance. I am sorry, but two seasons of performance leaves a lot of guesswork. He simply doesn’t have a track record to warrant a deal that would make him one of the highest paid players in the game. In fact, I don’t even buy that he would be worth that much if he did maintain that level of performance. Regardless of where you come down on Pedroia’s future performance, your suggested contract seems very much out of line.

I presume you are new around here, and therefore are not aware of my methods.

His two years of performance establishes alot more than what Longoria’s two weeks of performance did.  What did Longoria sign for?  And, did anyone think that was obscenely high?  I thought it was low.

And in any case, you don’t need much more than 3 years of performance.

Caruth does the work for me on Youkilis (4/40):
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/youkilis-inks-deal

And it shows he is getting a fair deal.

***

Youk is a 4+ player, meaning that he’s getting 2 years of free agency bought out.  That’s the same as Pedroia (getting 2 years bought out).

Pedroia is giving one slave year, and one arbitration year more than Youkilis.

He is getting paid the EXACT same amount.

Follow me here… for the last 2 years of arb and the first 2 years of free agency, Youk and Pedroia is giving the Redsox the same deal (4 years, 40MM).  In addition, Pedroia is giving the slave year (which, of course, is almost free anyway), plus the first year of arbitration.  That’s the difference.  Pedroia is worth, according to the Redsox LESS than Youkilis, and it’s exactly equal to the first year of arbitration (some 3 MM let’s say).

But, Pedroia is a MONSTER.  He is not only a more valuable player than Kevin Youkilis, he is also younger.

Pedroia really sold himself short here.

please tell me that pun was intentional.

Nope, not intentional.