from Amazon
Monday, February 01, 2010
Draft WAR
Good data. You should really zero out the WAR at the career level.
Third Round
College hitters-- .115 WAR/year
High School hitters-- .424 WAR/year
College pitchers (sic)—(.023) WAR/year
High School pitchers-- .058 WAR/year
Basically, from the third round (and later I suppose), pitchers provide almost no value. I don’t know how many pitchers he has in his top 2 rounds, say about 25 per year. That pretty much sets the mark: after the best 25 pitchers in high school and college, everyone else is hit and miss.
I’m not sure your conclusion about pitchers after the 3rd rd really follows the data. I mean, sure, they’re hit or miss, but the draft is mostly miss for all player types after the first few rds.
I just took a quick look thru my draft stuff and as it turns out the 1990s were a very good decade for mid and late rd pitchers. Invariably, one of the top 3 pitchers from each draft class was a mid to late rd pick.
It’s been awhile since I looked at my data in depth, but I’m pretty sure that pitchers from the mid rds on are at least as productive as HS hitters. Iirc, it’s HS hitters that really fall off a cliff in the mid rds whereas C position players and pitchers are relatively common sleeper types.