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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Thursday, March 05, 2009

Dollars per win

By Tangotiger, 11:00 AM

Colin does more great work.  He gives a dollar per win of 3.8 for 2007 and 4.2 for 2008, compared to the 4.0 and 4.4, respectively, I’ve been using.  Close enough!


#1    brent      (see all posts) 2009/03/05 (Thu) @ 21:58

How soon could someone know the dollars per win for 2009? Do you have to wait until the end of the season?


#2    Colin Wyers      (see all posts) 2009/03/06 (Fri) @ 02:55

brent, it really depends on the question we’re interested in asking.

We could certainly figure out the dollars per win that have been paid for free agents in the 2009 offseason, based upon projected free agent wins. We could also take a model like mine or Tango’s and simply extrapolate to an estimated dollars per win, although this is an odd offseason and we don’t know how well the assumption of 10% revenue growth will hold.

But we don’t know what the actual revenue is going to be in 2009 - nobody knows that, really, although teams that have already started single-game ticket sales probably have a pretty good idea by now. We don’t even have Forbes revenue estimates for 2008 yet. Those should come in April.


#3    Sky      (see all posts) 2009/03/06 (Fri) @ 11:51

"We could certainly figure out the dollars per win that have been paid for free agents in the 2009 offseason, based upon projected free agent wins.”

Has anyone done this, at least as an initial estimate?


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