THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

I’m sure that there’s a mountain of information to be had through scouting observation. I’m just skeptical that the foundation is currently there to be able to gather and analyze the information accurately and effectively.  Whenever I read an amateur online scout trying to analyze a batter’s swing or a study the kinematics of a pitcher’s throwing motion, I can’t help but think, “pseudo-science.” Are the standards much higher for professional scouting?  Are the scout’s observations being checked for accuracy?  Are the conclusions derived from those observations being tested some how?

As for LaRussa, it’s ironic that he essentially calls it arrogant to even suggest that one his observations might be wrong.

There’s no question that the data compilation process is horrible in MLB.  There’s no data design behind the process, no standardization, nothing.  It’s a big joke.  MLB data collection efforts of non MLB players is about as small business as you’ll find in the corporate world.

It’s a problem that is easily fixable.

Regarding standards/rigor in baseball operations, here’s a question that was asked as part of an application for a job with a major league team as a minor league instruction manager last year (I probably shouldn’t comment on how I got it, though I wasn’t told to be hush-hush about it either):

Please identify two or three important areas where we would need to make a strategic choice about how we want to play the game.  Describe the tradeoffs that would need to be understood, and any analysis that you would recommend doing to help point us in the right direction.

This was really a “separate the men from the boys” sort of question on the application, because it required applicants to describe two sides of an argument without laying out a conviction one way or another.  Rather, it required folks to propose what sorts of information they’d need to collect to determine which is the best course of action for the team/organization in question.  This is something that someone who isn’t used to having to justify their claims with data and/or consider multiple roughly-equal courses of action might struggle with.

Keep in mind that this was an application for a minor league instruction manager position, not a stathead-type position.  So, while I might be reading too much from this little window into an MLB team’s operations, what I’m seeing is an emphasis on critical thinking and justification from a position that (I imagine) might have traditionally been held by people who weren’t required to justify their approaches much beyond “that’s what I was taught, and what I’ve seen works.”
-Justin

Tango/2,

It seems as though some teams are doing just that.  I’ve read a fair bit about the Cleveland Indians’ system, which apparently makes stride to integrate scouting information in a formal manner into a database.  I have to think that the Red Sox are doing similar things, based on all their other innovations.  Have you seen anything else reported on these kinds of efforts from these or other teams?
-j

The primary reason why MLB is run so “shoddily” from the standpoint of player evaluation, game strategy, etc., is that it is not essential to the industry as a whole.”

Imagine the scenario whereby each team equally (or with some other pre-determined) split all costs and revenue.  There would be virtually no need for accurate player evaluation, optimal in-game strategies, etc.  IOW, sabermetrics would be essentially useless.

In other industries, there are two forces at work (granted, these two forces are inextricably connected).  One, the industry as a whole - i.e., creating a product or service that is optimally viable to the consumer, and two, competition among the purveryors of said product or service.

Baseball, taken as a whole, does not have the latter, and sabermetrics is a minor part of the former.

Granted, once a team or two (say Oakland) starts using sabermetrics (or anything) to get an edge, it is like pushing the proverbial boulder over the edge of the cliff.  By necessity, all teams have to do the same thing in order to keep pace.  That is the situation baseball is in now.  But, the general nature of the business, as I explain above, causes change to come come slowly and discretely.

IOW, business will put forth about as much effort as they have to, given the forces and competition acting upon that business.  Every once in a while, you get a true and great innovator in a business whereby they constantly strive for excellence and cutting edge results, regardless of the pressure.  That the exception rather than the rule.

And let’s not forget that baseball is part hobby and part business for some owners.  And even for the serious, corporate owners, it is a tough task to overcome the tradition of baseball ownership being a rich man’s hobby.

Look at the ZIPS projections for Rolen in the above-referenced blog.  That is quite pessimisic.  And what do the mean by “indexed to their new ballparks?” These are the actual projected numbers given the new parks (Rolen in Toronto and Glauss in STL)?  Doesn’t that make Rolen’s numbers even worse, as isn’t TOR a hitter’s park and STL a pitcher’s (or at least neutral) park, within their respective leagues?

I’m sure you meant Steve Phillips and Keith Olbermann.

MGL--Does ZIPS also account for the difference in quality between the NL Central and AL East?

Keith Olbermann has a brain. O’Reilly is a parrot who exists to distract from an agenda that the populace would never accept. One guy formulates rational arguments, the other does everything possible to cloud an issue.

Neoconservatives hate Keith Olberman not because they think he’s particularly dangerous but rather because he’s the embodiment of democracy. Neoconservatism is at war with democracy because the people’s voice consistently indicts Friedman for the mentally ill progenitor of a bankrupt philosophy that he was and thus forever protects them from the immoral trappings a truly free market economy spawns.

Basically, democracy makes conservatives pretend they have a conscience.

CHONE Projections, before trade:

Glaus 256/364/490
Rolen 274/353/449

After:
Glaus 259/374/486
Rolen 270/345/449

As to why Glaus’ slugging changes and not Rolen, its either a different mix of xbh types, or rounding.  Looks pretty much like the park change evens out the league change.

That is true that Rolen should do a little worse, relative to the other players, and Glaus should do a little better.  That (and the fact that Glaus is younger and only has 2 more years on his contract) is probably enough to make the deal worthwhile for the Cards even if people thought that they were exactly the same players overall, relative to the other players in each of their respective former leagues.

Tony LaRussa from this article about finding a lead off hitter:

“On-base percentage is the highest thing on the list,” manager Tony La Russa said at the team’s annual Winter Warm-Up. “If you’ve proven that you can get on base, that will give you the best chance to lead off. It doesn’t mean it’s the only thing. Say [Molina] has an on-base percentage of .700 in Spring Training. I don’t think I’m going to lead him off because he clogs those bases a little bit. But I’m going to wait, let guys play.”