Wednesday, July 20, 2011
Distributions in sports
Good job by Kincaid.
Also note the Tango Distribution (last two links on home page).
Buy The Book
Good job by Kincaid.
Also note the Tango Distribution (last two links on home page).
No, use multiplication instead. If you score 4 goals and the league average is 2, and your opponent is 3, then your estimate is 6.
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Very nice for Kincaid to lay it out step by step for us slow people.
Continuing the thought, how do you model the lambdas, goals for and goals against for the two opponents? This is assuming that your opponents are league average at both offense and defense.
Would a simple way like Home Team GF/G + (Away Team GA/G - League Average GA/G), etc work?