THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Isn’t the biggest question mark with Papelbon in Philly his entrance music?

Another consideration is draft picks.

Sign Papelbon, forfeit the No. 31 overall pick...collect TWO compensation picks by letting Madson go, one of which will be about pick ~45 overall (the sandwich one) and other one will be another team’s first, second, or third rounder - depending upon if the pick is protected and if the signing team signs a free agent ranked higher than Madson. 

Sign Madson, and the Phils keep that No. 31 overall pick but gain no compensatory ones.

Once we get down to the level of the No. 31 overall pick, the guy is far from a sure thing, so you’d rather have two picks at No. 45 and, let’s say, No. 60 overall than have only that No. 31 pick.

I think that’s a consideration.  And there’s probably some scouting involved, where they feel Papelbon’s mechanics are slightly less likely to break down over the next 4 years than Madson’s are.

I’m almost certain they aren’t choosing Papelbon over Madson because of advanced stats.  This is the front office that gave Ryan Howard THAT contract.  More likely to me that they are picking Paps over Madson because of their scouting profiles and the draft pick considerations. 

They also could let Rollins walk this offseason and sign Reyes, which would be another 2-for-1 draft pick swap.