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Monday, November 21, 2011
Did BPro change their WARP calculation? Or, is Felix not a superstar pitcher?
My first indication is when I saw this:
PVORP PWARP WARP NAME
58.3 6.2 6.7 Justin Verlander
56.9 6.1 7.3 Clayton Kershaw
53.4 5.7 5.5 Jered Weaver
50.5 5.4 6.2 Cliff Lee
45.4 4.8 4.8 Roy Halladay
Their PWARP and PVORP correspond. But the WARP is completely different. At first I thought it was an AL/NL thing, but then look at Lee/Halladay. I then went to Felix’s page, and at the top it shows him with 3.2 WARP, but in the stat line it shows him with 2.8 WARP. So, the 2011 calculation seems to have changed, and is not consistent on the player pages.
And even in his best seasons, he’s at only 3.4 and 2.9 WARP. Heck, his Cy season of 2010 is only at 2.6 WARP. That got me to going to the 2010 report, his Cy Young year, and he comes in at #43. Remember that his PECOTA forecast enterting 2011 had him with 7.0 WARP, with a 10th perecentile of 5.8.
I can only presume that Felix has been awarded one mother of a park adjustment.
While I am not a big looking at home/road splits at the seasonal level, I do like to look at them for longer careers. Felix has started 101 games at home and 104 on the road. His RA9 at home is 3.49, and on the road it’s 3.82. That means he gives up 9.5% more runs on the road than at home. However, the average H/R split is to give up 4.7 runs on the road and 4.3 runs at home, or a 9.2% split. So, Felix’s personal H/R split matches the league-wide H/R split.
If it’s not a home/road adjustment, then I’d like to hear what the rationale in the changing interpretation of Felix’s outcome numbers, from superstar, to above average.
What is the difference between PWARP and WARP?
My first guess is WARP includes pitcher hitting (relative to the average pitcher) and Kershaw and Lee both hit well last year and gain a few runs.
But that can’t explain Verlander going from 6.2 to 6.7. He only hit 4 times last year, going 0-4 with 3 strikeouts.