THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Monday, June 16, 2008

DH in the Hall of Fame

By Tangotiger, 04:32 PM

I give all DH -2 wins per 162G (700PA) for their “position+fielding”. That is the equivalent of a bad fielding 1B. In fact, I put a floor of -2 per 162G for all players for their pos+fielding.

I also give DH a bonus of +0.5 wins per 700PA, for those PA as a DH, in deference to Andy’s findings in The Book for a DH penalty.

Or, if that was too complicated, DH are compared to a tinge below average hitters, while the rest of the players are compared to replacement-level players. The “replacement-level” DH is, basically, a guy who is an average hitter, but can’t field at all.

IIRC, Hall of Famers are around +60 wins above replacement playerand above. So, for a full-time DH to make it, he’d have to be around +50 wins above average hitter. Edgar just slides above that line. Edgar also had the misfortune of getting his 1000th PA when he was 28 years old. That makes him an even older callup than Ryan Howard if you can believe it. Anyway, Edgar should make it in.

Seeing how long Raines will have to take, I don’t expect the Holy Writers to be on top of this one either. They’ll have to investigate and study this, and it will take years for their non-dissertations to finally reach public consumption.

• Sabermetrics • Awards

#1 Anthony (see all posts) 2008/06/16 (Mon) @ 18:58

Edgar Martinez also had 26% of his PA as a 3B. For what it’s worth, Sean Smith’s TotalZone has him as -21 runs at 3B for his career.

#2 Eric Seidman (see all posts) 2008/06/16 (Mon) @ 21:09

I’m torn on Edgar. I can see both points of view and would probably vote him in if given the opportunity, but it would definitely not be a no-brainer like Tim Raines is for me.

Something I’m wondering, along similar lines to the DH dilemma, is whether or not any Colorado Rockie player will ever be inducted, simply due to the statistical inflation effect.

#3 (see all posts) 2008/06/17 (Tue) @ 01:10

Strangely, Edgar absolutely mashed in AAA and during his brief callups. They kept him in AAA for most of ‘87 and ‘88 despite having Jim Presley at third (he of the career .290 OBP).

Look at his career AAA numbers compared to his numbers below that level-- it’s kinda weird. If you look at AA and below, he seems like a nobody.

#4 JD (see all posts) 2008/06/18 (Wed) @ 15:50

I still don’t understand how a DH has a negative win value. By not going in the field, he isn’t hurting the team at all. Sure, if he were to step foot on the field he’d be hurting his team, but the nature of the position negates any negative impact his defensive ineptitude would create. So why penalize a guy for something he doesn’t do?

#5 Tangotiger (see all posts) 2008/06/18 (Wed) @ 16:19

Players are compared to the replacement level. And the replacement level DH is a roughly league average hitter.

So, relative to average hitters, and relative to replacement players, an average hitting DH is worth 0 wins above replacement.

However you wish to figure this, as long as you get that, I’m happy.

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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Monday, June 16, 2008

DH in the Hall of Fame

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