from Amazon
Monday, December 21, 2009
Contract albatrosses
Matt gives us Gary Matthews as one example, given hindsight.
His 5-year year through 2006 (when he was 32 years old), was 13.4 wins in 2444 PA, or 3.8 WAR per 700 PA. BaseballProjection had him at 10 wins, or 2.9 WAR per full season. Per 600 PA (my standard “full season"), that’s 2.5 to 3.3 WAR. A 5/50 deal would have implied a WAR entering 2007 of 3.2 or so. It was an entirely justifiable signing. That he performed at below-replacement for the last 3 years was at the very low end of forecast percentiles.
