THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Perhaps you could include some sort of more nebulous category along the lines of new trends/themes that will occur this season. Using last year as an example, a good prediction would have been something like “rookie pitchers will have an extraordinary impact this year.”

I know this sounds vague and it might not be the best formulation of my idea but I just think it would be great to have a prediction category taht dealt with the bigger picture of the league(s) as a whole.

I would include playing time, which is one area where fans might really add a lot of information.  Maybe PA for hitters, IP, starts and save opp’s for pitchers (assuming LI is too complicated)?

Hmm, I suppose simply saying “how many games will he play” would be a fair thing to ask.

Would the following two questions be useful as well?

For pitchers - Starter, Reliever, Closer, Flex?
For hitters - Table-Setter (1-2), Run Producer(3-6), bottom lineup(7-9)?

Projecting a non-closer (Eddie Guardado) to have saves, as a regression system would do, can be trumped by community knowledge that he’s just a reliever now.

Flex is for guys like Miguel Batista 2001, Ryan Franklin, or others that split time between starter and reliever.

I like the pitcher roles.  I definitely have a strong regression for relievers, since it’s hard to tell who is or is not the upcoming closer.  And knowing that a guy will become a starter is also a great thing to have.

For hitters, it would be useful for forecasting R and RBI, but not as much as some might think.

Here are “Blink forecasts”:
http://www.sportszillablog.com/2007/02/blink_and_baseball.htm

Tango, how’s this project coming and what do you think of the LookoutLanding/USSMariner project?

I’ll be coding it sometime this month, and ready for rollout in March.

I like the USSM project.  I am a bit bothered that the results of other voters can be seen prior to voting.  However, it’s lots of fun being part of the study, as you don’t feel you are all alone when you vote.

I’m just wanting an update.  I’m very stoked about the idea of community projections, your defensive study.  but you knew that.

I downloaded the 40-man rosters, and I’ll be creating the ballots for it, with the various limited categories.  I’m thinking it’ll be ready in 2 weeks, in time for 3 weeks of voting.