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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Monday, December 28, 2009

“Clearly, wins is a flawed stat” —Bert something-or-other

By Tangotiger, 11:06 AM

Maybe this guy should take his nose out of his spreadsheets, and play a game:

If you allow one run, but your team doesn’t score any runs, then you can’t earn the win. If your bullpen gives up a lead after you leave the game, then you can’t earn a win. Wins are a product of your team as a whole, and while the starting pitcher plays a significant role in who wins the game, he is not the only factor. The starter can only control so much.
...
Clearly, wins is a flawed stat, and I think observers of baseball are beginning to realize that. After all, this year’s Cy Young winners were Zack Greinke (16 wins) and Tim Lincecum (15). Both are great pitchers and deserving of the award, but neither led their league in wins.


#1    Rally      (see all posts) 2009/12/28 (Mon) @ 12:09

This writer was born in the Netherlands.  What could he possibly know about playing baseball?


#2    Rally      (see all posts) 2009/12/28 (Mon) @ 12:13

Counting the playoffs he won 292 games.  Gets him a little closer.  He pitched great (2.47 ERA in 47.1 innings) in postseason play, including 2 world championships.  He pitched better in the postseason than another candidate who gets a lot more postseason credit.  They faced each other in the 1987 ALCS.  Bert won.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/MIN/MIN198710080.shtml


#3          (see all posts) 2009/12/28 (Mon) @ 12:19

I’m glad Bert is making his case.  If I knew nothing about him and I read that piece, I would think his credentials were amazing and the voters were nuts for ignoring him.


#4    Tangotiger      (see all posts) 2009/12/28 (Mon) @ 12:34

If I’m part of the 30% who vote against him, I’m thinking two things:

1. I’m not a good enough athlete to carry his jock

2. I’m not a good enough researcher to carry his plaque


#5    dave smyth      (see all posts) 2009/12/28 (Mon) @ 19:52

I think Bert whomever is really cool for doing this. He KNOWS he is worthy of the HOF. But he doesn’t whine about it like R Santo, or cower in the corner acting all humble. Instead, he realizes that with the present voters and public, his case is now mainly a statistical one.

And he nails it--better than some saberist using WAR and FIP could ever hope to.


#6    Michael      (see all posts) 2009/12/28 (Mon) @ 21:57

I think Dave/#5 nailed it. Bert made his statistical case without using something the voters would not look at. He deserves the Hall for his WAR, but he played well enough that he didn’t need those numbers (which the BBWAA would not have a clue about) to highlight how good a case for the Hall he has.

It’d be a shame if 13 wins costs him the Hall.


#7          (see all posts) 2009/12/30 (Wed) @ 01:29

@rally: he makes up for it with his extensive knowledge about playing honkbal.


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