THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

” Tom Tango has actually just come on with us as a consultant, and also Mat Olkin, who has had a relationship with the Mariners for a period of time. So they’re not in the building, per se, but they will also have their voices heard.”

I have that at 7.5 WAR, or $32 million fair-market value.

Tango, can you shed any light on the quality of the Mariner’s new statistical department? Is it shaping up to be among the top 10 in baseball? Top 5?

My involvement is on a consulting basis, not employee basis, so I don’t have as much insight as you might think.  I am happy with the direction.

This might be the first time in MLB that the hiring of a consultant causes a jump in ticket sales.

Big congrats, Tom!

However, my selfishness wonders, how does this affect the book blog?

So MGL couldn’t talk you out of it?

Congratulations.  I’m sure I’m not the only one who will be paying a lot more attention to M’s personnel moves from now on.

Thanks for the well-wishes.

This doesn’t affect anything else that I do, other than I won’t be talking about any of the M’s moves or potential moves.

Good. M’s get smarter, and I don’t lose a blog I love to follow. Win-win.

What took MLB so long to get you? Congratulations, Tom.

We all know the new M’s OF is your dream, so we know who is running things over there.

I’m pretty sure Tango has worked with MLB organizations before, really this is no surprise as he just recently announced he wasn’t tied down by anyone anymore, so it was just a matter of time.

Right, I’ve done some consulting work in the past for MLB and NHL.  MGL and Andy as well.  I think “The Book” also acts as a “brochure” of sorts.

Congrats Tom. I’m still waiting to hear.

Nice, so all we have to do is write a great book to be a potential MLB employee/consultant.

Congrats Tango.

Hey Tom...I just wanted to personally congratulate you on your next forau into baseball, but more importantly...thank you for taking on the Mariners. :D I am more optimistic now than ever about the team.  LOL

Just out of curiosity, how did you contact the team?  Or did they know you from the Book and contact you?  I naturally have my ear to the ground listening for opportunities, ESPECIALLY consulting opportunities that don’t require me to moe to a new location…

Interesting time we live in as devout baseball students.

Congrats man...:D

Congrats Tom.

Maybe now you’ll see what Will Carroll was talking about

For Tom’s sake, I hope he’s not suddenly bombarded with emails from Mariners fans about “what the team should do,” now that the two main M’s blogs have mentioned this.

This is great news.

Congrats man!

I vow never to do that...LOL He’s a bright guy...he can make his own recommendations.

Tom,

Congratulations.  This is good to hear, both for you and probably even more so for the Mariners. 

My recollection is that you punted on the full-time gig with the Pirates that Dan Fox ultimately landed.  Are you keeping your day job with this as well?  Is this a larger role than what you’ve had with other organizations in the past (assuming you’re at liberty to divulge)?

http://www.sportsscientists.com/

Sports Scientists is a great site for anyone interested in other quantitative analysis of other sports.  They focus a lot on sports like running and swimming… looking at how the body overheats, how successful runners pace themselves in marathons, etc.  Posting is infrequent (maybe once or twice per week) but generally a long read and well worth it.

And congrats Tom.

Sean: Ichiro, Gutierrez, and Endy in the OF is wonderful, yes.

Matt: I worked with one of the minority owners of the team in the past, and asked him to put my name forward.  He gave a really nice endorsement, plus Tony B was already familiar with my work.

Sean: writing a book, or just having your work exposed is really the best way.

Dan: I don’t mind getting the emails.  Indeed, I’m thinking of ways to do a Wisdom of Crowd approach.

Wes: I put Dan’s name forward and told the Pirates not to bother interviewing anyone else, as he was even better qualified for the job than I was.  I am now in a similar position with some other (unnamed) team that I will ultimately reject and recommend someone else.  Yes, I still have my full-time job.  The M’s role is larger than with some of the MLB teams in the past, but smaller than my role with NHL teams.  It’s a part-time thing.

Congrats Tom!

One curious question if you can answer it: How many are working full-time for the M’s in their stats group and how many are consulting like yourself?

Matt: I don’t know, but Seattle’s local paper does a good job of covering what’s happening there.  There is also an upcoming USSM even with Tony B et al headlining, so you should check out their website.

Thanks to all again for your support.

Congrats, Tango. And grudging congrats to the Mariners as well.

However, I’m afraid this is where the pleasantries have to end. As a Royals fan, I am 100% committed to winning the Battle for Grass Creek (Google it).

I’m sure that Dayton Moore will respond in typical fashion:

later this week, the Royals will announce the hiring of Christina Kahrl.

Would you mind dropping me an e-mail, Tom?  I have several questions and don’t think it’s entirely appropriate to conduct this kind of conversation through an open blog.

Grats Tango-san.

Hope you recommend Endy as #2 in lineup.
When Ichiro is on base Endy can make drag bunt.
For defence to prevent SB and drag bunt is very difficult.

That’s an interesting point...but Chavez’ career sub .330 OBP prevents him from being a good #2 hitter.  I don’t want to see Chavez getting any more than 150 ABs this year anyway.  I love defense...I think it’s more important than is commonly believed by GMs and most sabermetricians, but Endy Chavez can’t hit.  At all.  Even a little bit.  There’s no way he’s going to hit enough to make his defensive contribution hold its value.

The guy has lots of uses...as a defensive replacement pinch runner or pinch hitter when you need to use the running game as Naka-san suggested...as insurance in case Gutierrez gets hurt and you need an emergency CFer...to get Wlad Balentien days off in LF...all good.  But as a full time left fielder and #2 hitter?  I just don’t see it.

Tango, what would I have to pay you to get you to sabotage the Mariners to the Angels’ benefit?  Can it be on an installment program?  TIA.

(And, seriously, congratulations.)

Congratulations, Tango! But you’re in my division, so I can’t wish you luck.

LAWBH, We’re going to have to fight this.  Somehow you and I have got to get Tony Reagins’ ear.

I read the interview at BP, and when I saw Tango, video scouting and interns mentioned in the same paragraph, I had visions of guys lined up in front of mlb.tv with their stopwatches in hand, filling out a hit f/x table.

That’s not that far from what was done in Milwaukee actually.  I doubt that’d have thought of it as a hit f/x char, but they had some of the best spray chart info and batted ball trajectory data around.

I expect the Mariners to be managed much more intelligently this year...with the manager positioning his defense to the spray chart data a lot more often.  Not to mention doing more intelligent platooning of their offensive weapons and picking spots better for their relief pitchers.

I find it weird when articles and analysis are devoted in part to me.  One site has several, in what looks like a 24-hour time period:

http://proball.us/2009/01/07/james-shandler-olkin-and-other-stats-consultants/

http://proball.us/2009/01/07/ping-pong-on-the-21st-century-ms/

http://proball.us/2009/01/07/ms-move-into-21st-century/

http://proball.us/2009/01/06/ms-beef-up-stats-dept/

It was actually a good fun read. 

To answer one of their guesses: my ideal situation would be what Dan Fox, Keith Woolner, Tom Tippett and others are doing, which is to use my tech skills and baseball love together.  As it turns out, the best way for me to do that is to be paid full-time in corporate america without needing to relocate, while working part-time as a baseball/hockey consultant from my home office.

Maybe that will change one day, but not today.

I find it weird when articles and analysis are devoted in part to me.

Yeah, you big publicity seeker.

Congratulations on your new job Tango. I thought this thread was about the TV show Cheers (which I hate) so I never bothered to click on it until I read the Mariners post. This is why I am congratulating you 10 days late.

can we still make fun of the Mariners when they do something (that we think is) dumb?

No baseball-related post will ever be censored. 

Personal attacks are subject to deletion (i.e., those cowardly things that one would never say to someone else’s face).

#34 Those are by Dr. D, the best Mariner blogger, although that’s not his normal site. It was actually my response to his first post (your fourth link) which sparked the subsequent three so I’m curious if you would weigh in a little further.

He is of the opinion that statistical analysts are both getting too gung ho about defense and putting too much faith in the current crop of defensive metrics. Since I disputed that, at least in regards to you, he asked me specifically at the end of one those posts (your second link) how you would value Adam Dunn given certain numbers, which were just his 2008 stats from Fangraphs. I attempted to answer that as well as speak to those larger issues but I obviously would rather know what you would do instead of speculating.

Did I present your side correctly? (I’m Cool Papa Bell over there, or CPB)

heh...I thought that was you CPB!

Doc’s regular blog appears to have died since the Klat folks are paying him for every time he gets linked offsite and I think in cents per word as well (which is why he’s suddenly posting 6 times a day, which is of course awsome).

I disagree with Dr. D’s premise that sabermetricians are getting too enamored with the overall value of defense.  I actually value defense a lot more than even Tom would.  But I have butted heads with Tom about how to appropriately calculate wins above margin...I hate that offensive runs are counted above a bench hitting level but fielding runs are counted above average.  I think that’s what causes some of the weird looking value comparisons to which Dr. D objects (for example, claiming that Raul Ibanez is less valuable to a team than an all-field-no-hit scrub...that happened recently).

Doc is seeing the problem, but he’s not grasping the cause.

"I hate that offensive runs are counted above a bench hitting level but fielding runs are counted above average”

Actually, I count everything above average (hitting, fielding, pitching, baserunning), I apply a positional adjustment, and after that, I apply the “bench/replacement” adjustment.

Aaron: I’m not sure exactly what to comment on, but obviously no one is going to look at just one year of stats.  And, I would always consult the scouting data, and if I don’t have it, then I increase my uncertainty level.

I’m referring to the scenario he sets up in the bottom of the post your second link goes to and my response in the comments section.

I know that you shouldn’t use a single years worth of stats to make a projection, but he is just using that example for illustration purposes to get at the larger issue. He wants to know if a defensive metric says that a great hitter is an awful fielder if you would slash his overall value in half or more. He’s just trying to get perspective on how much emphasis you put on defense as well how trusting you are of metrics like UZR.

At least that’s more consistent than what they do over at USSM and Lookout Landing, Tom.

I don’t like counting everything relative to average either, but there is a certain logic to it if you use an average-centric linear weight...the problem with average-centric stats is that you end up making bench players look like Gods sometimes.  Or playes who have flukishly good fielding ratings in limited playing time.  How do you set your replacement level adjustment?

"my ideal situation would be what Dan Fox, Keith Woolner, Tom Tippett and others are doing, which is to use my tech skills and baseball love together.  As it turns out, the best way for me to do that is to be paid full-time in corporate america without needing to relocate, while working part-time as a baseball/hockey consultant from my home office. “

Oh how true.

When you’re about 16 you realize you aren’t good enough to be a professional baseball player, but being a stat-geek you get into that and dream some day of working in a major league front office.

Then you get married, have kids, then grandkids, pushing 50, been at the same job for 20+ years, making good money.

But who knows? We get on the internet where everyone in the world can read what we have to write, and maybe some of it make sense.

Would I leave that 20 year job? It would be a hard decision, but of course if someone made me an offer I couldn’t resist. Then again, there could be that single guy fresh out of college who’d do it for less than half of what I would (although he sends me emails to learn how to make his Retro database run right).

Actually, from the age of 18 to 21, I did double duty, playing in and being the statistician for our local summer league. One game the scorer called off at the last minute, so I played left field and was the oficial scorekeeper.

Well I’m sorry Brian...LOL Didn’t know my enthusasm and youth were robbing you or your dream!

Of course I don’t e-mail you to ask how to make a database...I’m quite competent with that on my own.

I was referring to a certain someone, but I’m always glad to help. At work, there’s a frequent cry of Brian! to get me to find out why someone’s software isn’t working right (usually operator error).

I was jusr saying that I’m probably in the same boat as Tango, that it’s hard to start something new after you’ve been established. I’d hate to think that someday I could be offered my childhood dream and then actually consider turning it down.

Unfortunately, when I was your age PCs hadn’t even been invented yet.

I was just funning ya Brian.

I am glad I grew up in this time when my dream is possible and within my reach if I make due diligence and work hard enough at my craft.

But yeah...going full time with baseball once you have already come to depend on bigger paychecks from other jobs...I can see why that would be painful.  I knew a guy named Scott Barzilla who was forced to turn down a job with the Astros because he had a better paying job and a family.  He always bemoaned that day even though he didn’t really regret it.

Sadly, I have to echo Brian’s sentiments.  Back about 20 years ago I was working for STATS, Inc during summers while I was in college.  After graduation, I essentially turned down a full time offer because the big insurance company here in NJ offered about 50% more money.  Twenty years later, I have a wife, 2 kids and a job with a different big insurance company in NJ.  I’d still love to get into the business, but I find now that I’m probably making almost 100% more than what I might be able to make.

So Matt, if and when you do make “the show”, I and others will most likely be living vicariously.  Of course I don’t know what effect that will have on the advancement of weather forecasting.

I’m hoping I will have done small good thing for the computer modelers in the atmospheric sciences durin my Ph.D. program before I flea full time to baseball...so maybe our winter storm forecasts will improve with a little bit of my help and then our contextual understanding of baseball statistics can improve. :D