THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

The scoring rate in the last three minutes is very high when there’s a +1 or +2 differential.  I think teams might be pulling their goalies even earlier this year because they realize the leverage value is higher than they originally thought.

You probably can’t see the chart on my site - the percentage of tie games through the first 3400 seconds is essentially the same this season as it was the last four.  But then it spikes up - there are more tying goals scored with the goalie pulled this season, and way fewer goals scored to break the tie.

What are you trying to figure out with the scoring rates at other goal differentials?

The +3 differential shows you how one team goes all-out, while the other team goes all-back.  So, with 3 minutes to go, is goals scored say 2.2 per 60, while goals allowed is 2.7?

At the tie-game differential, are both teams going all-back?  That is, goals scored and goals allowed at 2.2? So, both teams are playing as if both teams have a 3-goal lead!

That’s the illustration.  I’d like to see what the numbers are showing.

So you essentially want to see which teams are playing for the tie in the last three minutes?  Ie - s.d. of GF and GA?

Not looking for individual teams, if that’s what you are asking.  Not the standard deviation either.  It’d look like this:

Last 3 minutes of regulation, NHL, 2008-09
diff, GS, GA
0, 2.2, 2.2
+1, 2.4, 2.7
+2, 2.3, 2.8
+3 or more, 2.2, 2.9

Then repeat for each season.

ok, I’ll check that out.  It’s something like:

0: 2.1, 2.1
1: 5.0, 12.0

Hmmm… right, because of pulling the goalie.  Perhaps you should show it with 2 to 4 minutes to go, or 90 seconds to 3 minutes to go?