THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Thursday, October 20, 2011

Chance of scoring from any base/out

By Tangotiger, 07:36 PM

If you are looking for a quick equation:

chance of scoring
= 0.086
* (base + 0.5)
* (3 - outs)

This gives you:

Base   Outs   ChanceScoring
1    0     0.39 
1    1     0.26 
1    2     0.13 

2    0     0.65 
2    1     0.43 
2    2     0.22 

3    0     0.90 
3    1     0.60 
3    2     0.30

Close enough to reality for something quick that you need.

If someone wants to come up with something more robust, then play around with those arbitrary coefficients, and post your results!

If you want the actual data.

• Sabermetrics • Run_Win_Expectancy

#1 (see all posts) 2011/10/20 (Thu) @ 20:21

Did you run a regression analysis to generate that equation?

#2 (see all posts) 2011/10/20 (Thu) @ 21:28

I wonder what an equation of the chance of scoring on a hit to the outfield would be.

#3 Tangotiger (see all posts) 2011/10/20 (Thu) @ 21:48

MGL, I saw the pattern, and I just ran a regression to get the coefficient .086.

#4 mettle (see all posts) 2011/10/21 (Fri) @ 01:40

Well:

.163 + .233 x base - .05 x outs -.074 x base x outs gives you a sum of squares of 7x10-3 while yours gives 12x10-3.
Less clean, more accurate:

OUTS base rate ME SS_ME TT SS_TT
0 0 0.167 0.163 0.000016 0.13 0.001369
1 0 0.12 0.113 4.9E-05 0.09 0.0009
2 0 0.07 0.063 4.9E-05 0.043 0.000729
0 1 0.397 0.396 0.000001 0.39 4.9E-05
1 1 0.266 0.272 3.6E-05 0.26 3.6E-05
2 1 0.132 0.148 0.000256 0.13 4E-06
0 2 0.614 0.629 0.000225 0.65 0.001296
1 2 0.417 0.431 0.000196 0.43 0.000169
2 2 0.232 0.233 1E-06 0.22 0.000144
0 3 0.842 0.862 0.0004 0.9 0.003364
1 3 0.663 0.59 0.005329 0.6 0.003969
2 3 0.292 0.318 0.000676 0.3 6.4E-05
0.007234 0.012093

This includes the 0base state from your data.
Without that, coefficients are:
.151, .238, -.057, -.071

#5 Highland Cow (see all posts) 2011/10/21 (Fri) @ 12:39

Why is 1999 excluded?

#6 Tangotiger (see all posts) 2011/10/21 (Fri) @ 13:26

At the time I ran it, that data was not available.

#7 BirdWatcher (see all posts) 2011/10/21 (Fri) @ 15:11

To make it easier to do this calculation in your head while watching a ball game, use 0.1 instead of .086, then mutiply the overall result by 0.9. Hey, it’s so easy, even Tony Larussa could figure out the answer !

#8 Tangotiger (see all posts) 2011/10/21 (Fri) @ 15:32

Personally, I just remember the base numbers with 2 outs: .13, .22, .30. And then if there is 1 out, I double it. If there are 2 outs, I triple it.

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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Thursday, October 20, 2011

Chance of scoring from any base/out

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