from Amazon
Wednesday, August 12, 2009
Chance of injury by playing out-of-position
Will Carroll says:
One of the most misunderstood issues with changing positions is the injury risk that’s entailed. Over the past five seasons for which I have detailed injury data, players moving to a new position had a 30 percent greater chance of injury. This was across the board, whether the move was simple—like switching from left field to right—or more complicated, like going from the outfield to second base, as Kelly Johnson did a couple of seasons ago. (And that was after coming up as a player who was playing the left side of the infield in the minors.)
It’s a bit counterintuitive that no single position is higher risk than others, even one like second base, where the second baseman’s back is to the double play in most situations. However it also clearly points to the major cause of these injuries: unfamiliarity.
On a related note, I can confirm, and have shown, that there is a familiarity factor with switching positions in terms of performance. Something on the order of losing 4 runs per season by playing someone out of position at a related position (2B/SS/3B, or LF/CF/RF), and 8 runs by playing out of a position at an unrelated position (IF to OF).
Now, I can believe that the injury factor will also go up. 30% sounds insanely high though. I would love for Will to present the data (or send me the data) to verify the claim.
Haven’t read Will’s article, but it depends on what you mean by “30% higher.”
If the chance of a DL stay at any position is 5% in any one year, a 30% increase could be 35% or it could be 31.5%, right? Plus, you would have to define what you mean by “chance of injury” in the first place. So I would say that the words “30% greater chance of injury” without giving the data or explaining what you mean (and maybe he did in the article), is insanely meaningless…