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Wednesday, November 23, 2011
CBA: How much signing bonus pool should each team be allocated?
Jeff Passan is reporting:
The draft pools start this season with the Houston Astros – who pick No. 1 overall – set to receive $11.5 million to spend in the first 10 rounds. They end with the New York Yankees having a $4.5 million budget over 10 rounds
Does it make sense?
Check out the WAR for players (through age 29) drafted in the June draft, for 1965-1999, for the top 300 picks, grouped by “order”, where order=1 is the 1st, 31st, 61st, etc picks:
WAR order
100% 1
72% 2
64% 3
59% 4
67% 5
60% 6
64% 7
48% 8
74% 9
70% 10
38% 11
47% 12
54% 13
44% 14
32% 15
69% 16
46% 17
40% 18
69% 19
62% 20
23% 21
46% 22
44% 23
38% 24
56% 25
46% 26
32% 27
37% 28
45% 29
56% 30
I indexed it relative to order=1. As you can see, if you are slotted to pick 2nd through around 10th, you get 64% of the value of picking 1st (with not much difference between picking 2nd through 10th). Picking 11th through 30th gets you 46% of picking 1st.
MLB is giving the first team to pick 11.5MM$ to play with, while the 30th place team is getting 4.5MM$ (or 39% of the first team). That seems pretty reasonable.
Presumably MLB has a sliding scale for each spot. In my case, I have spots 11 through 30 to be at 46%. Presumably, MLB has those spots at something like 53% down to 39% (so that they too will come out to average my 46%).
Using the above data, this is my recommended pool money for each slot (note that things get a bit complicated with the extra lottery picks that I have not modeled here; but, someone can take my above chart, and work it out):
WAR Tango pick
100% 100% 1
72% 72% 2
64% 70% 3
59% 68% 4
67% 66% 5
60% 64% 6
64% 62% 7
48% 60% 8
74% 58% 9
70% 57% 10
38% 56% 11
47% 55% 12
54% 54% 13
44% 53% 14
32% 52% 15
69% 51% 16
46% 50% 17
40% 49% 18
69% 48% 19
62% 47% 20
23% 46% 21
46% 45% 22
44% 44% 23
38% 43% 24
56% 42% 25
46% 41% 26
32% 40% 27
37% 39% 28
45% 38% 29
56% 37% 30
If MLB ends up having a scale anything close to what I’m proposing, then hats off to whoever at MLB worked it out. You did a great job!
I can see why the players are ok with this, but what do the owners gain from this system? all the money they are keeping themselves from spending on draftees is still there to be spent on major league free agents.