THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Yeah, I’m sure if Belanger only knew that was the standard he’d have played another week or so.

Kind of an interesting list.  Top 10 in winning % for each of 30 franchises, so 300 total players.  Only 16 have at least 1000 career “wins”.  One (Chipper) is active.  Two (Bagwell, and Edgar) are on the ballot.  One (Rose) is ineligible.  Of the rest, only three (Gil Hodges, Frank White, and Frank Crosetti) are not Hall of Famers.  What stands out is that each of those three played with teammates who also are in the list of 300, and also “won” 1000 or more.  The remaining nine (Pee Wee Reese, Bobby Doerr, Johnny Bench, Tony Perez, George Brett, Nellie Fox, Joe DiMaggio, and Bill Dickey) are all HoF’ers.

Of course, as Brreadbaker notes, some just missed.  BUT, only 11 had 900 or more “wins” - one active (Helton), and five who are in the Hall (Molitor, Gabby Hartnett, Duke Snider, Travis Jackson, and Phil Rizzuto) and five who aren’t (Carl Furillo, Mark Belanger, Boog Powell, Amos Otis, and Ossie Blueage).  Again, those wha AREN’T in the Hall tended to either play for dynasty teams or with others on the list who are IN the Hall, or both.

And Jackson is nobody’s current idea of a Hall of Famer.  Although he was probably better than Belanger, Jackson actually hit far worse in the postseason.  And it takes someone special for you to be able to say that about Mark Belanger (OPS .508 in the postseason).

I am not suggesting this is a good test for a Hall of Famer (at least standing alone).  But it appears to be not a whole lot worse than somebody’s whose idea of a Hall of Famer is anybody who gets 3000 hits - it is some measure of success, and longevity, and those who have accomplished it have generally been recognized....

Not that it matters, but just to go “on the record” in discussion. I’m changing my 50/50 on Edgar to a solid “Yes”.

My concern had been if we positionally adjust enough for “career DH’s” and I think we probably due. We don’t really factor in defense for elite hitters on a regular basis in practice. For example, when we discuss Cabrera’s HoF status we won’t really penalize much on D because of his long peak and overall dominance. Fielder may eventually be in the same boat.

I think it is perfectly fine to award some “points” for outstanding post-season performances as well, as it is the HoF and things like Morris’s g7 count (as does his good 84 and bad 93), so Edgar could get a nudge (not that he needs it) for g4 of the 95 ALDS.

I don’t want to get Tango going about the writers but both Edgar and Bags are being “punished” for things (DH and/or PEDs) that there really aren’t good reasons for.