THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Teams believe milestones = money. That’s why

’cause Milwaukee is thinking about the fans that may come to see him get his 600th career save? That’d be pretty decent PR. They have not much else to play for right now. I’m calling it - once he gets that 600th save, he’ll be released or waived or something of that sort. I’d be very surprised if the Brewers kept him & give more than 10 IP in September.

Besides that, the stat of the year might just be his 11.08 ERA in save situations (thru 8/29). Yeah, seriously.

The only possible explanation that I can think of is that the 600 save milestone is the perfect excuse for playing a terrible pitcher in high leverage situations in order to improve your draft status.  The Brewers might be .500 (or close) with an average reliever (say, Carlos Villanueva, in AAA?), but with Hoffman pitching in important situations, they could get the #6 or #8 or some pick like that.

Last year, Hoffman had a pretty good year.  He struck out 8.0 per 9 and walked only 2.3 per 9.  He was in the top 20 among MLB relievers in WPA and in the top 10 in WPA/LI.  His contact rate, zone percentage, and swinging strike percentage (according to FanGraphs) were all above average (for all pitchers, at least, not sure about for just relievers).

Coming into this season, his projections were certainly good enough to warrant a job.  His ERA/FIP projections on FG were:

ERA FIP
2.43 3.03 James
2.93 3.23 Fans
3.14 3.26 ZIPS
3.45 3.84 CHONE
3.47 3.69 Marcel

As far as I know, those don’t include scouting data like velocity or movement, but it’s not like he was much different when he was pitching effectively.  The fastest FG has his fastball since 2002 is 86.2 in 2002, and in 2006 it has his fastball even slower than this year.  This year, it has him at 85.0, with every other year ranging from that to 86.0.  His change-up is listed at 76.1 in 2002, but for every year since it is listed well below 75.  He’s never had a lot of movement, either.  Until this year, even at those velocities, he has always had better than average K rates, contact rates, and swinging strike rates.

So I can easily see why a team would give him a shot this year even with his lack of velocity and movement.  If not at closer, he was at least worth a bullpen spot (and the Brewers don’t seem to have a good bullpen and aren’t in contention, so having Hoffman split time at closer to get to 600 is probably not that big a deal to them).

He has had a very bad year this year, but coming into the year, that would have been difficult to expect given what he’s done over the past several years with pretty similar stuff.  Even with his horrible performance, ZIPS still projects him easily above replacement (3.60 ERA/3.70 FIP for the rest of the season), and CHONE’s August update has him still just above replacement (4.30 ERA, 1 run above replacement).  At this point, he shouldn’t be closing and probably won’t get another job, but the Brewers already have him, they’re already out of it, he’s 1 save away from 600, and there’s still a decent chance his true talent is above replacement level at least.

Oliver’s pre-season projection was more pessimistic, putting Hoffman at just about league average (265/318/441 .327 wOBA allowed, 4.27 ERA, 4.05 FIP). .303 babip and .040 HR% both almost exactly league average, .064 BB% and .190 so% both a little better.

PECOTA
86g 86ip 44sv 3.26era
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=HOFFMAN19671013A

For what its worth, Dirk Hayhurst’s “The Bullpen Gospels” (very good book, but I prefered his Baseball America blog entries “Non-Prospect Diary") was very complimentary of Hoffman’s role in helping younger pitchers with their game plans and adjusting to life in the majors while with San Diego.

I think you’re pretty significantly underestimating the deceptiveness of Hoffman’s changeup, which still appears to get a relatively good number of swinging strikes and draws positive reviews (anecdotally) from opposing batters.

Also, as another commenter noted above, it’s not like his velocity or stuff is significantly different from what it was when he posted a 2.69 ERA and allowed slightly more than a runner per inning over the last five seasons.

If Hoffman wasn’t a save away from 600 we probably wouldn’t see him in save situations, as he’s clearly lost the job. With that said, the fact that he draws a lot of credit for helping teammates, the PR boost of 600 saves and the fact that the Brewers aren’t going anywhere anyway combine to make it less of a big deal.

Actually, I’m ok with Hoffman getting the occasional save just to remove some of the workload from John Axford, who the team has been abusing like a rented mule.

Because Trevor Hoffman makes 12% of the entire Brewers 2010 salary, and ownership is too cheap to admit that that’s a sunk cost.

Hoffman was very good last year with the same velocity, as he has been since forever.  So I can understand why they give him a job.

Even this year, he just had a horrible April and has done a decent job since.  I can’t find anything here to fault the Brewers on unless I criticize from hindsight.  Now if they give him decent money and the closer job next year, that would be open season on them, but I doubt it happens, Axford seems to have claimed it.

I was all set to disagree with MGL, but the pitch data backs him up.  Hoffman has gotten 13% whiffs on his changeup this year.  That’s below average, which is fine if it’s your third pitch behind a solid fastball and good breaking ball.  Hoffman doesn’t have either.  His slider gets only 9% whiffs, and his fastball is 85 mph. 

He’s not throwing the slider for strikes, and he’s lost deception on his changeup, so batters can sit on his weak fastball.

Last year he got 21% whiffs on his changeup, and in 2008 he got 24%.  That’s the range he needs to be hitting in order to be passable as a major league pitcher.

I think you’re pretty significantly underestimating the deceptiveness of Hoffman’s changeup, which still appears to get a relatively good number of swinging strikes and draws positive reviews (anecdotally) from opposing batters.

I don’t think Hoffman is allowed to pitch still because the Brewers believe his stuff is anything special anymore. I think the numbers clearly show his changeup is no longer effective. SwStr% is down from 10.6 last year, 11.2 career to 7.1 this year. Zone% is down from 52.1 last year, 55.0 career, to 44.9 this year. and Contact% is up from 76.6 last year, 76.1 career to 83.0 this year. and though his velocity looks like it is still up i think that’s possibly a pitch classification issue, i don’t think he’s throwing a whole lot more sliders and a bunch fewer fastballs. He’s toast. i don’t think there is any question. I’m certain that Brewers management is smarter than the casual fan in this case and realizes Hoffman is toast.

I agree with Rally that there was justification in bringing him back for another season.

So two questions, if he is toast, why is he on the roster, and why is allowed to pitch in high leverage situations?

It’s a hall of fame career victory lap of a season. What can the Brewers possibly gain from cutting Trevor Hoffman while he sits at 599 saves?  The first place Reds drew less than 15,000 fans to last night’s game. The third place Brewers have drawn 30,000 to their last two Monday night games.

Asking why Hoffman is still allowed to pitch is en entirely legitimate question from a scouting and/or performance perspective. But in context of the business of baseball it looks like an awfully silly question to me.

Mike #11,

That’s fine and good for making a case not to bring Hoffman back for 2011.  But you don’t know that when the decision to pay him or not has to be made in the offseason.  Right now he looks like a replacement level reliever.  The money has been paid either way, so you can either have Hoffman on the roster or cut him and use a young replacement level reliever.

I will cut the Brewers plenty of slack if they tell us that there is value in having Hoffman around to work with the younger pitchers before he calls it quits.

I’m kind of indifferent as to giving him a few save opps to reach a nice round number.  Doesn’t really make a difference to their season at this point, and it’s not like they blindly stuck with him as a closer all year, Axford did earn the job.

Rally, right, I don’t disagree.  If the question is whether the Brewers should give him high leverage innings or any innings at all, I have no opinion. 

If the question is whether Hoffman has the talent to be above replacement level as a reliever at the current time, I think there is good evidence that he is not.

I don’t begrudge him his 600th save, if and when he gets it.  He’s had a great career.

I don’t know anything about him personally, but I begrudge the fact that he is not retiring on his own volition.  Surely it has to be obvious to him that he can’t get anyone out anymore.

As far as teaching young pitchers, that has some merit.  As far as the crowd wanting to see him, I don’t buy that.  When a player is so bad, the crowd does NOT want to see him play, especially in this case, when he seems to blow the game every time he pitches in high leverage situations.  If they want to give him a few 3-run saves in order to get 600 and beyond, fine.  Last night they brought him in in a tie game (non-save) in extras, and right on cue, he lost the game with his usual ineffective pitching.

BTW, I’ve had this rule of thumb for a long time and it seems to be intractable:  If a RHP cannot throw harder than 85-86 and does not have pinpoint control, he cannot get major leaguers out, period.

I know Hoffman lost last night’s game, but he also got a standing ovation when he entered in a save situation on Sunday. So you can make the case that the fans really do want to see him.

Second, I know his stuff isn’t as good as it used to be, but you’re writing about him like he’s some kind of unbearable albatross, and he’s not. Even considering last night’s loss (his third appearance in three days), he’s got a 3.28 FIP in his last 28 appearances. He’s not killing this team.

Kyle, that FIP is mostly on the strength of only 1 HR going out of the park in that time frame, compared to 7 HR in his first 17 appearances this year.  With Hoffman a flyball pitcher, and with his swinging strikes only increasing from 6% early in the year to 8% in his last 28 appearances, I don’t see any reason to think he’s going to continue his recent short streak of keeping the ball in the park.

I don’t think he’s as bad as MGL thinks he is, but I wouldn’t employ him in a major league bullpen based only on his current skill.  Replacement level for a reliever is better than the 5.00 ERA or so that Hoffman is capable of posting these days.

dlf@7

According to Craig Breslow, Hoffman refused to come to pitcher meetings in SD because “there was nothing they could tell him.” I highly doubt he was interested in teaching the young pitchers anything.

MGL writes: “BTW, I’ve had this rule of thumb for a long time and it seems to be intractable:  If a RHP cannot throw harder than 85-86 and does not have pinpoint control, he cannot get major leaguers out, period.”

Wouldn’t a rule like that tend to be results-defined and self-proving?  If a soft-tosser gets hitters out at somewhere near MLB average rate, he will get a reputation for pinpoint control based on those results.

Is there any standard to define pinpoint control from objective measurements?  Ball/strike %, K/BB ratio, PitchF/X data?

I don’t think there is any data you can use to determine pinpoint control.  A pitcher can have a low walk total because he throws lots of balls in the strike zone without great control and he can have a mediocre walk rate because he likes to nibble. Hence the difference between command and control.  When I say pinpoint control I really mean command.  Anyway, I cannot think off the top of my head of any RH pitchers who were anywhere near league average who topped out at, say, 85.  Even Maddux, at the end of his career, was not league average, and he threw 85-86 I think.  And I don’t recall anyone who had better command than he did, at least in his heyday (as pitchers age, they eventually lose command I think)…

"Anyway, I cannot think off the top of my head of any RH pitchers who were anywhere near league average who topped out at, say, 85.”

Tim Wakefield? 

Mussina in 2008 did pretty well with an average fastball speed of 86.4 MPH. He was not so good in 2007 when his fastball averaged 87.1.

Unless it was a road game against the Padres, is anyone buying a ticket to see a relief pitcher who might or might not pitch?

"BTW, I’ve had this rule of thumb for a long time and it seems to be intractable:  If a RHP cannot throw harder than 85-86 and does not have pinpoint control, he cannot get major leaguers out, period.”

FanGraphs has pitch data dating back to 2002, and Hoffman’s fastball has never averaged more than 86.2 since then. He’s been below 86 in seven of those nine seasons, and 85 or below in three of them.

Over that time, he posted a 2.98 ERA in 443.2 IP (over 460 games), picking up 285 saves.

I’m fine with the argument that “it’s hard to be effective as a righty if you don’t throw hard.” But it’s not an absolute, and Hoffman is proof of that.

1) Right, of course it is not absolute.  But I think there is sort of a threshold and that speed/effectiveness is not linear.  And I think that threshold is around 85-86 for a RHP.

2) I don’t necessarily buy the FG pitch speeds.

3) I say “top out” which basically means max speed other than an outlier or two, and the FG are obviously average speeds.

4) Mussina had excellent command I think.

5) A pitcher with a good changeup can probably get away with a poor fastball, more so than other pitchers, since his changeup makes his fastball appear faster than it is.

I agree with Breadbaker.  Who is going to the game to see Hoffman, on the off chance that he is going to pitch, when he is not even the closer anymore?

#18 Hawerchuck ... interesting.  Between Hayhurst and Breslow, we’ve got two minor league lifers who joined the Padres while Hoffman was the closer who at least appear to diametrically disagree on Hoffman. 

Since Hayhurst spent several years in the Padres system and Breslow was there for only one (most of which was spent in Mobile rather than San Diego), I’d weigh the former’s opinion on Hoffman’s participation somewhat more and am unsure why you would “highly doubt” what Hayhurst said about a former teammate’s off field activities related to a non-controversial subject.

(For what its worth, in trying to find any published story quoting Breslow on Hoffman, I came across a story about Breslow’s call up.  That story talked about Clay Hensley giving Breslow advise that was based on the advise Hoffman had given Hensley when the latter had first been activated.  I’d love to read Breslow’s comments that you are referring to.)

Re: #18, I don’t see how one follows the other.  If I am so arrogant (or whatever you want to call it) that I don’t think that the coaching staff can teach me anything (which may be true), why does it follow that I wouldn’t teach the young pitchers something?