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Monday, October 02, 2006
Can fans evaluate fielders, without a position bias?
Darin Erstad switched from CF to 1B back to CF. There is no more unusual position switch than going between CF and 1B, other than catcher. How did the fans evaluate Erstad, year-to-year?
Year In Fi Sp Ha Re St Ac
2003 85 90 83 84 59 45 56
2004 84 83 74 86 67 48 64
2005 90 80 67 84 74 53 71
2006 81 79 63 76 56 28 58
If you don’t recognize the headers:
Instincts
FirstStep
Speed
Hands
Release
Strength
Accuracy
Hard to tell when he was a CF and when he was a 1B, right? 2004-5 was as a 1B. The only anomoly, if you even want to call it that, is his release evaluation was about 10 points higher as a 1B than CF. (His arm strength this year was way below his norm, suggesting something terribly wrong this year. )
All those who think it’s “impossible” for fans to evaluate a player, without respect to his position, raise your hand.
I’m going to look for more major position switches, and see how the fans did. My gut feeling is that Fans do a great job. But, let’s see.
Updated: Oct 3, 10:45
Here’s two high-profile switching teams/positions, Soriano and Nomar.
Soriano
Sori was a 2B from 03-05 (two in NYY, one in Tex), and then of course LF with Nats. Let’s see how the fans compared him.
Soria In Fi Sp Ha Re St Ac
2003 32 53 80 07 21 61 37
2004 63 82 84 17 31 55 32
2005 24 66 81 00 32 58 32
2006 37 60 84 41 50 71 71
His instincts were pretty stable, except for the huge blip in 2004/NYY. His first step again showed a huge blip up in 2004/NYY. However, the 2005/2006 comparison is the one we are most concerned about, and that is pretty stable. His speed is consistent across the board. His Hands shows the biggest change, with horrible hands as a 2B, and below-average as a LF. Same applies with his release/footwork. His arm-strength was always above average, but looks even better when evaluated as a LF. His arm accuracy is through-the-roof. If we take the average of 2003-05, and compare to 2006, we have:
Soria In Fi Sp Ha Re St Ac
0305 40 67 82 08 28 58 34
2006 37 60 84 41 50 71 71
Clearly, from the time he actually reaches the ball, to the time he gets rid of it, we see two different evaluations of Soriano. Are his coordination numbers (Hands+Footwork) as horrible as the 2003-05 evaluation says, or just simply a bit below average as the Nats fans say? Does he have an average arm, or a plus arm? Is this a situation where the fans failed to evaluate him context-free, or a situation where Soriano is two completely different ballplayers when at 2B/LF? Is it a situation where most players are two completely different ballplayers when at 2B/LF?
If professional scouts knew how well Soriano would have played at LF, they would have moved him there a long time ago, considering how much he struggled at 2B. I opt for the situation that we’ve got two different Sorianos, that he adapted differently, and few could have expected his transition to have been as smooth as it was.
Nomar
Nomar In Fi Sp Ha Re St Ac
2003 73 76 69 53 59 90 50
2004 60 55 58 50 50 78 35
2005 58 42 50 40 42 71 39
2006 61 59 52 58 52 63 62
Nomar was a SS in 03,04. In 05 he split his time at SS/3B. In 06, he was a 1B. He was in Boston in 03-04, Cubs 04-05, and Dodgers today. He of course has been beset with injuries. How did the fans see him?
For Instincts, fairly stable. His first step took a big drop from 03-04, then stabilized. Same with his speed. His Hands have been fairly stable, with a dip as a 3B, and raised a bit at 1B. His Release fairly stable. His arm strength has been dropping year-by-year. His accuracy dropped alot, then rose substantially in LA.
What can we see? The only big concern I have is his arm accuracy with the Dodgers. Every other evaluation doesn’t seem to have a position-bias (and we’ve got three different teams and three different positions). It’s possible that with the very short throw from 1B that it’s simply too hard to evaluate arm accuracy at 1B, position-free.
This is the 1B report for 2006:
http://www.tangotiger.net/scouting/pos2006_1B.html
In terms of arm accuracy, Nomar is 5th among all 1B. His 2003-2005 numbers (SS/3B) are pretty clear that his arm strength is far far superior to his arm accuracy. As well, of all the 7 traits each year, arm accuracy was always his lowest score, year after year (and arm strength his high.) His 2006 numbers however show them as equals (arm strength still highest of all traits), and that both of those are his strengths. Either the Fans blew it on this particular trait (just 12 ballots), or Nomar has adapted his throwing approach so well, as to fit into a 1B mold. My guess is the Fans blew this one trait. It would be more helpful to see video of him.
I’ll look for more…
Updated: Oct 3, 11:15
Brad Wilkerson
Mostly an OF in 2003 in Montreal. Split his time 1B/OF in 2004. Then went to Washington in 2005 as mostly a CF/OF, with some 1B. Then in 2006, in Texas, as a LF. Seems like a nice spreading around. How’d he do?
Wilk In Fi Sp Ha Re St Ac
2003 60 45 48 54 49 55 61
2004 80 73 56 72 89 64 82
2005 66 60 56 61 61 52 57
2006 28 32 38 32 48 35 35
His 2006 numbers, across the board, are abysmal. Let’s focus on 2003-05 first. His 2003 first step is out of ... uh… step, with 04-05. His Speed is stable. His Hands look much better in 04-05. His release was far far better in 04. His arm strength is stable. His arm accuracy much better in 2004. This one is pretty strange. The two seasons that most match are the 2003 and 2005 seasons, one in Montreal as OF, the other in Washington as an OF, with parttime 1B. His split time in 2004 as 1B/OF seems to have biased his arm evaluation with Montreal fans.
His 2006 numbers however are completely different from the rest. While we may have some position-bias issues, the 2006/Rangers evaluation shows something completely different. Either he had some terrible injury, or Fans made a personal attack on him. I’d like to hear from Ranger fans on this one.
Geez, Tango, you are really digging in your heels on this, and trying to make something that is grey, black and white. Do you seriously think that some if not many (or even all) of the fans do not know that Erstad played 1B and CF and that they have not followed his career through those movements, and that they would not rate him similarly even if he broke both legs and became the batboy?