THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

FIP and xFIP do have Morrow as one of the best pitchers in the game.  He is probably the biggest disconnect there is there, taking over the Nolasco/Vazquez role.

That being said, the other “nerd” WAR in Rally’s has him as only 1 WAR.

I’m not exactly sure why the author quoted his BABIP.

And overall this is the quote that matters “I’m not always sure how they come to those conclusions, but I like them.” So the only reason he is saying he’d rather look at those nerd stats which I’m assuming he’s referencing as FIP and xFIP is because they do show him as elite.  I’d be much more interested in why he thinks there is such a disconnect between his elite level FIP/xFIP and actually allowing runners to score the past couple seasons.

It’s funny, because if there’s one pitcher who I’ve always thought was a good counter-argument to stats like FIP, WAR, etc.. it would be Brandon Morrow.  Ricky Nolasco & Matt Cain both get some love here as well.

ERA-4.28
xFIP-3.95
FIP-3.75
BF-2041

How far out of the “norm” is he?

Of the 122 SP who have 200+ IP since 2010, here are the biggest 5 differences each way combining FIP and xFIP equally compared to ERA.

Diff Comb ERA IP Name
1.24 3.29 4.52 273 Brandon Morrow
1.21 4.46 5.66 210 Zach Duke
1.15 4.55 5.69 245 Kyle Davies
0.98 3.17 4.14 334 Zack Greinke
0.89 3.94 4.83 253 Jeff Francis

-1.28 3.98 2.70 256 Clay Buchholz
-0.93 3.90 2.97 306 Johnny Cueto
-0.79 3.75 2.96 392 Tim Hudson
-0.78 4.58 3.80 376 Randy Wolf
-0.75 4.40 3.65 254 Jon Garland

data from fangraphs

Um, those aren’t Morrow’s numbers, rwperu.

Is it just me or have nearly all the saber-conscious players so far been pitchers? Bannister, Greinke, Morrow (not to the same extent obv), even retired guys like Cone and Hershiser. Are pitchers more cerebral in general?

Those are Morrow’s career numbers up through before last night I believe.  The BF (i.e. PA) = 2041 would be the indicator.

Mike/4

Yes, the batters seem to take simpler approach. Loved what Mike Piazza told me when we talked about it:

Were you a big stats guy, did you always know where you were at during the season?

Good question. No, it’s funny that you say that because I never knew how to get the slugging percentage till like three years into my career. I always tried to break the game into its most simplistic forms and that’s for me every at bat try to hit the ball as hard as I can.

#3, since last year, SP with 200+ IP (there are 122) Morrow has the biggest difference in (xFIP+FIP)/2 - ERA.  Clay Buchholz is on the other side of the spectrum in that regard.

And here is the data from 2010-211, just SP action, grabbed top 150, which brings the IP limit down to 144.

Diff Comb ERA IP Name
-1.22 3.23 4.45 279 Brandon Morrow
-1.21 4.45 5.66 210 Zach Duke
-1.15 4.55 5.69 245 Kyle Davies
-1.10 3.65 4.75 191 Jake Peavy
-0.92 3.17 4.08 341 Zack Greinke
-0.89 3.94 4.83 253 Jeff Francis
-0.87 4.37 5.24 147 Edinson Volquez
-0.87 4.12 4.98 213 Charlie Morton
-0.87 4.01 4.87 209 Joe Blanton
-0.82 3.56 4.38 322 Ricky Nolasco
-0.82 4.75 5.56 170 Jeremy Bonderman
-0.80 4.15 4.95 294 Rick Porcello

0.64 2.78 2.14 244 Josh Johnson
0.71 4.63 3.92 144 Tommy Hunter
0.75 4.40 3.65 254 Jon Garland
0.78 4.58 3.80 376 Randy Wolf
0.79 3.75 2.96 392 Tim Hudson
0.86 3.84 2.98 199 Johan Santana
0.96 3.88 2.92 314 Johnny Cueto
1.04 4.46 3.42 152 Dillon Gee
1.18 4.20 3.02 160 Jeremy Hellickson
1.28 3.98 2.70 256 Clay Buchholz

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“I’d rather look at the nerd stats,” Morrow said.

Great line. Needs to be on a t-shirt.

Is it just me or have nearly all the saber-conscious players so far been pitchers? Bannister, Greinke, Morrow (not to the same extent obv), even retired guys like Cone and Hershiser. Are pitchers more cerebral in general?

Pitchers are more likely to accept something that makes them look better than their traditional stats do.

Roy Halladay still talks about pitcher wins as being primary, and he is probably one of the “smartest” on field pitchers.

IMO, lots of the more athletic types cannot stand only “playing” 1 out of 5 games. They often find pitching to be incredibly boring. That’s how I feel about outfield.

Let’s let Doc school us on how to pitch, and we’ll school him on how to interpret numbers.