THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

That’s what I’ve said for years.

I don’t know if Brady used.  Maybe he started a few years earlier and without steroids would have remained a .225, 4 homer guy.  Maybe he was really clean the whole time.  But to think the 50 homer season was the product of steroids makes no sense at all.

I just don’t get why a lot of people make such strong assumptions.  The truth is, we have no idea if 99% (made up number) of players used or not.  I know you don’t like broad, general statements like that Tango, so I’ll throw in an example.  The Posnanski piece that article links to, he comes up with a Fair Play list.  Why do we feel the need to make a Fair Play list?  We have no idea if those guys used or not - the only one that actually seems like there’s a good case he didn’t is Thomas because of how outspoken he was on the issue 15 years ago, but all the others?  We like them?  They don’t seem like they would have used?  They’re stand up guys?  I don’t know what the reasons are for making the assumptions, but they just seem like...unnecessary assumptions to me.  When are we just going to admit to ourselves we really don’t know, and probably never will?

I’ve always disliked how all the information we do have has come to light - it’s always been about creating scapegoats - that’s why a guy like Ortiz’s name gets leaked from the supposed list of 104 positive tests but the rest of the names stay under wrap.  It’s just a whole lot of BS.

I agree, the Anderson-was-juiced thing is an arbitrary gut reaction and it doesn’t make any sense at all.  Most anti-steroid commentary doesn’t, actually.

Davey Johnson hit 43 in 1973 at the age of 30, and he never hit over 18 in any other season.  Outlier seasons happen.  The steroid frenzy has caused us to select those outlier seasons and make all these crazy, nonsensical statements about them.

#2, I agree this fair play list is a bogus idea.  Nobody has any idea who used.  A couple of years ago, Manny would have been on that list because nobody thought he had the attention span to dope.

"Davey Johnson hit 43 in 1973 at the age of 30”

And went on to manage Brady Anderson...the conspiracy deepens.

Gonzo has always been my personal Brady Anderson (meaning I look at his career and the reactions to his 2001 season the same way Jeremy is looking at Anderson).  One of my first serious baseball articles I wrote (but never published anywhere) was pretty similar to this, about Gonzo.

The idea that you can look at thousands upon thousands of player seasons and find evidence of steroid use by picking out the anomalies that inevitably crop up is baffling to me.  So is the refusal to acknowledge that those anomalous seasons are naturally going lead to higher home run totals and larger differences in HR totals in a higher home run environment (i.e. post-1993) than in previous eras.

Seemed a little odd that Poz didn’t lead off his article with Ken Caminiti.  A little like doing an NFL list and not starting with Lyle Alzado.