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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Monday, August 15, 2011

Bourjos

By Tangotiger, 01:31 PM

Story:

The red shading in that picture represents the area in which an average center fielder will catch the ball more often than not, if the ball is in the air for between three and four seconds (that’s the hang time for most fly balls). The blue shading represents the extra ground Bourjos covers.

“That right there … that’s the truth,” Hunter said Wednesday after looking at the diagram.

“He’s the blue?” asked Angels pitcher Jered Weaver, who has been a major Bourjos beneficiary this season. “That’s ridiculous.”

When Bourjos saw the image, his first reaction was to smile. It was the same smile he flashed when he made his ridiculous catch later that night.

“That’s pretty cool,” he said. “They don’t usually have those sorts of things for defense.”


#1    JD      (see all posts) 2011/08/15 (Mon) @ 20:22

I feel a bit stupid here, but it’s mostly that I’m not really a visual person (I prefer charts and numbers). Clearly, Bourjos covers more area on the balls in question (though I’m not sure what types of balls those are, exactly). But how significant is his extra blue area? Is this 1% better than average? 10%?

I’m not saying Bourjos isn’t great, but I guess I just don’t get a lot out of that particular picture because I have no idea what it means. (Note: I did skim the article and saw the chart with his defensive runs saved, but I’m talking about that picture specifically)


#2    Tangotiger      (see all posts) 2011/08/15 (Mon) @ 22:13

The article mentioned flyballs in the air for 3-4 seconds.  I’m not sure if the covered area is 50% outs (my guess) or 90% outs or whatnot.

As for what it means, the article also said that he had something like 15 more outs than average.  If he has say 300 outs made, then we’re talking about 5% more maybe?


#3    Cesar Geronimo      (see all posts) 2011/08/16 (Tue) @ 17:04

Nice motivation. Weak execution.


#4    BenJ      (see all posts) 2011/08/17 (Wed) @ 10:21

JD/2: Fair enough. Some people get more out of the visual presentation than the numbers, and others are the opposite. Defensive metrics are usually all numbers; this gives the visual audience a different look.

Cesar/3: What could be improved?


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