THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Saturday, August 06, 2011

Bottom of 9th: if you are not the tie-ing run, then don’t try to steal third base

Dodgers ahead by two.  Bottom of the 9th, and Diamond Backs at bat.  They have a runner on 2B.  The tie-ing run is at bat.

The Dodgers can let the runner score from 2B, and it would not matter at all.  The chance of winning barely changes.  2B, 1 out?  0.128.  3B, 1 out?  0.136.  Bases empty, 2 outs?  0.017.  So, if you try to get to third base (like on a passed ball, which is what happened here), you increase your chances of winning by 0.008.  But if you are thrown out (and it was close enough that it could have happened in this case), your chances of winning goes down by 0.111.

That’s the tradeoff: 8 to 111.  You have to be safe 93% of the time for this play to be a breakeven.

Sometimes, I think the runners just don’t think.  On top of which, just a pitch or two later, the same runner almost gets picked off third base.  The runner is so useless in this scenario, why doesn’t he just plant himself there?