from Amazon
Friday, January 14, 2011
Bobby Jenks v Kyle Farnsworth
I was aghast:
Let’s first look at Leverage numbers, a metric tracked at Baseball Prospectus. 1.00 is the Leverage situation at the start of the game when the first pitch is thrown, and then from there it’s driven by Win Expectancy.
I’ve already dispelled why BPro’s LEV should not be used years ago, and makes the above statement false. Colin’s done great work in cleaning up most of the issues I’ve had with the math at BPro. Presumably, he’ll get to this one at some point.
In any case, since the writer is having an issue with a Fangraphs writer, why not quote the leverage numbers from Fangraphs? (Note that both Fangraphs and B-R.com use Leverage Index data provided by me.)
***
Anyway, back to Farnsworth: he had a .468 BABIP with men on base in 2009. Not only that, but he gave up far more walks with men on base than bases empty. Before you do a comparison, you have to decide how relevant that piece of data is in forecasting him in 2011.
